Arsenal’s Rise to Favorites
Arsenal, once underdogs in the 2024/25 Champions League, have emerged as favorites to lift the trophy, per Opta’s supercomputer, as they prepare for their semi-final first leg against Paris Saint-Germain on April 29, 2025. Mikel Arteta’s side, buoyed by a 3-1 quarter-final win over Real Madrid and a 2-0 league-phase victory over PSG, exudes confidence. “Beating Real Madrid generated belief,” Arteta said, noting the enthusiasm now surrounding his squad, which topped the Premier League with 84 points.
PSG’s Evolving Threat
The PSG side Arsenal face differs from their October defeat. Luis Enrique’s youthful squad, bolstered by Ousmane Dembele’s return, has matured, as evidenced by their 4-2 last-16 win over Liverpool. Dembele, with 32 goals this season, leads a potent attack alongside Bradley Barcola, Desire Doue, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. PSG’s pace, driven by advancing full-backs Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes, poses a challenge, but their vulnerability to set-pieces, 19 of 50 goals conceded, offers Arsenal opportunities, as seen in Aston Villa’s 2-1 quarter-final second-leg upset.
Arteta’s Tactical Edge
Arteta, unbeaten in five previous encounters with PSG, is poised to exploit their defensive frailties, particularly from set-pieces, where Arsenal’s 6’4” center-back Gabriel Magalhaes (2.1 aerial duels won per game) thrives. The Gunners’ 7-1 last-16 rout of PSV Eindhoven showcased their attacking depth, with Bukayo Saka’s 14 Champions League assists since 2022/23 rivaling Kevin De Bruyne. Arteta’s call to fans to “bring your boots” reflects his intent to harness the Emirates’ atmosphere, contrasting Enrique’s defensive press conference amid PSG’s recent Ligue 1 loss to Nice (3-1).
PSG’s Struggles
Enrique, under pressure after PSG’s first Ligue 1 defeat and a 1-3 record in their last four games, dismissed set-piece concerns with sarcasm, insisting his coaching credentials cover all game aspects. His spiky response to French media criticism, focusing on PSG’s losses rather than their 22 Ligue 1 wins, hints at tension. Dembele’s disciplinary issues, which saw him benched for the October Arsenal game, add uncertainty, though his 1.2 goals per game make him indispensable.
Historic Opportunity
Arsenal, with only one Champions League semi-final appearance since 2006, stand on the cusp of history. Arteta’s squad, averaging 2.8 goals per game in the competition, faces a PSG side conceding 1.4 goals per match. The Gunners’ 67% possession against Real Madrid and Saka’s 4.3 dribbles per game signal their ability to dominate. As Arsenal aim to reach their first final since 2006, Arteta’s bold approach, fueled by a 10-game unbeaten streak at home in Europe, could propel them past PSG and toward a maiden Champions League crown.
