The USA vs Guatemala match prediction is one of the most anticipated analyses for the CONCACAF Gold Cup semi-final, as the hosts aim to reclaim their regional dominance. With a blend of young talent and experienced leadership, the USMNT faces a resilient Guatemalan side eager to make history. This USA vs Guatemala prediction 2025 dives into form, stats, and key factors to guide your betting decisions.
The match kicks off at 23:00 GMT+0 on July 2, 2025, at CITYPARK in St. Louis, Missouri, with a capacity of 22,423. As a semi-final in the CONCACAF Gold Cup, refereed by experienced official César Ramos (Mexico), this clash promises intensity, with the winner advancing to face either Honduras or Mexico in the final.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
For those seeking USA vs Guatemala betting tips, understanding recent performances and historical matchups is crucial. The USA vs Guatemala prediction today hinges on both teams’ form, with the USMNT showing resilience despite a depleted squad and Guatemala capitalizing on underdog opportunities. This section sets the stage for a detailed breakdown of their latest results and head-to-head encounters. Bettors should focus on key statistical trends and tactical nuances. These insights will help refine your expectations for the semi-final showdown.
USA Results
The USMNT has been a dominant force in the CONCACAF Gold Cup, breezing through the group stage before facing a tough test in the quarter-finals. Under Mauricio Pochettino, the team has adapted to missing key players, relying on emerging stars like Diego Luna and Max Arfsten. Their recent performances showcase offensive firepower and defensive grit, particularly in high-stakes moments.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 06/30/25 | GC | USA vs Costa Rica | 2-2 (W pens) | W |
| 06/23/25 | GC | USA vs Haiti | 2-1 | W |
| 06/20/25 | GC | Saudi Arabia vs USA | 0-1 | W |
| 06/16/25 | GC | USA vs Trinidad & Tobago | 5-0 | W |
| 06/11/25 | FI | USA vs Switzerland | 0-4 | L |
The USA’s unbeaten run in the Gold Cup highlights their consistency, with an 8-1 goal difference in the group stage signaling offensive potency. Their ability to win via penalties against Costa Rica shows mental toughness, though conceding a late equalizer raises questions about closing out games. The loss to Switzerland in a friendly exposed vulnerabilities against high-pressing teams. Emerging partnerships, like Tillman and Agyemang, have boosted their attack. Overall, the USMNT’s form suggests they remain favorites despite occasional defensive lapses.
Guatemala Results
Guatemala has defied expectations to reach their first Gold Cup semi-final since 1996, showcasing resilience and clutch performances. Luis Fernando Tena’s squad has leaned on players like Rubio Rubin to upset stronger opponents. Their quarter-final penalty shootout win over Canada marked a historic breakthrough for La Azul y Blanco.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 06/29/25 | GC | Canada vs Guatemala | 1-1 (W pens) | W |
| 06/25/25 | GC | Guadeloupe vs Guatemala | 2-3 | W |
| 06/21/25 | GC | Guatemala vs Panama | 0-1 | L |
| 06/17/25 | GC | Jamaica vs Guatemala | 0-1 | W |
| 06/11/25 | WC | Jamaica vs Guatemala | 3-0 | L |
Guatemala’s path reflects their underdog spirit, with narrow victories over Guadeloupe and Jamaica showing offensive spark. Their penalty shootout success against Canada highlights composure under pressure, though the loss to Panama exposed defensive frailties. The heavy defeat to Jamaica in World Cup qualifying suggests struggles against physically imposing sides. Rubin’s goal-scoring form is a bright spot. However, their inconsistent defense may struggle against the USA’s attack.
USA vs Guatemala Head-to-Head (Last 5 Matches)
Historical matchups between the USA and Guatemala heavily favor the USMNT, with the Stars and Stripes dominating recent encounters. These games often feature high-scoring performances from the USA, while Guatemala has struggled to keep pace. Below is a summary of their last five meetings.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 03/30/16 | WC | USA vs Guatemala | 4-0 |
| 03/26/16 | WC | Guatemala vs USA | 2-0 |
| 07/04/15 | FI | USA vs Guatemala | 4-0 |
| 07/06/13 | FI | USA vs Guatemala | 6-0 |
| 10/17/12 | WC | USA vs Guatemala | 3-1 |
The USA has won four of the last five matches, scoring 17 goals while conceding only three, underscoring their dominance. Guatemala’s lone victory in 2016 was an outlier, driven by a rare defensive collapse from the USMNT. The consistent high-scoring wins suggest the USA exploits Guatemala’s defensive weaknesses effectively.
USA Possible Starting Lineup
The USMNT is expected to deploy a 4-3-3 formation, balancing defensive stability with attacking flair:
Freese (GK), Freeman (DF), Richards (DF), Ream (DF), Arfsten (DF), Adams (MF), De La Torre (MF), Aaronson (MF), Tillman (FW), Luna (FW), Agyemang (FW).
Guatemala Possible Starting Lineup
Guatemala is likely to opt for a 4-4-2 setup, aiming to stay compact while relying on counter-attacks:
Navarro (GK), Herrera (DF), Pinto (DF), Samayoa (DF), Morales (DF), Rosales (MF), Saravia (MF), Robles (MF), Escobar (MF), Rubin (FW), Santis (FW).
Injured and Questionable Players
Injuries and absences play a significant role in shaping team strategies for the USA vs Guatemala match. The table below details players who are confirmed unavailable or doubtful for the semi-final, along with the nature of their injuries. This information is critical for understanding potential weaknesses in each squad.
| Team | Player | Injury/Status |
| USA | Johnny Cardoso | Ankle (Doubtful) |
| USA | Christian Pulisic | Club commitments (Unavailable) |
| USA | Weston McKennie | Club commitments (Unavailable) |
| USA | Yunus Musah | Club commitments (Unavailable) |
| USA | Antonee Robinson | Club commitments (Unavailable) |
| Guatemala | Nicholas Hagen | Unspecified (Out for tournament) |
Key Factors to Watch
For the USA vs Guatemala match prediction, several critical elements will shape the outcome. Both teams face unique challenges and opportunities, from injuries to tactical adjustments. Below are the pivotal factors bettors and fans should monitor.
- USA’s Depleted Squad: Missing stars like Pulisic and McKennie, the USMNT relies on young players like Tillman and Agyemang, who have three goal involvements each;
- Guatemala’s Underdog Resilience: Their penalty shootout win over Canada shows mental toughness, but defensive lapses remain a concern;
- Injury Concerns: USA’s Johnny Cardoso is doubtful with an ankle injury, potentially straining their midfield depth;
- Guatemala’s Goalkeeper Crisis: With Nicholas Hagen out, backup Kenderson Navarro faces a tough test against the USA’s attack;
- USA’s Offensive Form: An 8-1 goal difference in the group stage highlights their scoring prowess, led by Luna and Arfsten;
- Guatemala’s Key Man: Rubio Rubin, with his recent goal, is critical to their attack but faces a sturdy US defense anchored by Tim Ream;
- Tactical Matchup: The USA’s 4-2-3-1 could exploit Guatemala’s shaky backline, especially if Pochettino emphasizes wing play;
- Motivation Factor: The USA aims to redeem their CONCACAF Nations League fourth-place finish, while Guatemala seeks a historic final appearance.
Free Tips on USA vs Guatemala
To enhance your USA vs Guatemala betting tips, this section provides actionable advice based on statistical trends and team dynamics. These tips, grounded in recent performances and historical data, focus on unique aspects not covered in the key factors above. Use them to refine your approach to this CONCACAF Gold Cup semi-final.
- Referee Influence: César Ramos, known for issuing an average of 4.5 cards per match, may impact the game’s flow, increasing the likelihood of bookings in a high-stakes semi-final.
- Home Advantage at CITYPARK: The USA’s strong home record, combined with a passionate St. Louis crowd, could boost their performance, especially in crucial moments.
- Pitch Conditions: CITYPARK’s natural grass pitch, expected to be in top condition, favors the USA’s quick passing and wing play over Guatemala’s more direct style.
- Recent Schedule Fatigue: Guatemala’s congested fixture list, with three matches in 12 days, may lead to tired legs, giving the USA an edge in the second half.
- Player Form in Attack: USA’s Max Arfsten, with three goal involvements, is in top form and likely to exploit Guatemala’s backup goalkeeper.
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
USA vs Guatemala Match Prediction 2025
The USA vs Guatemala odds favor the hosts, given their historical dominance and superior squad depth, even with key absences. The USMNT’s attacking output, with an 8-1 goal difference in the group stage, suggests they can overwhelm Guatemala’s inconsistent defense, which conceded in three of their four Gold Cup matches. Guatemala’s reliance on Rubin for goals is a vulnerability, as the USA’s Tim Ream and Matt Freese have been solid defensively. While Guatemala’s penalty shootout heroics show grit, their 4-17 goal deficit in the last five meetings with the USA underscores the gap in quality. Pochettino’s tactical flexibility and the emergence of players like Luna and Arfsten tilt the scales further. Guatemala may keep the game competitive early, leveraging their underdog spirit, but the USA’s depth and home advantage should prevail. A 2-0 or 3-1 scoreline feels likely, with the USMNT controlling possession and capitalizing on second-half chances. For the USA vs Guatemala prediction 2025, we back a comfortable USA victory.
Our Prediction: USA 3-0 Guatemala
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | USA to Win | 1.26 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 1.62 |
| Both Teams to Score | No | 1.72 |
Place your bets with confidence, as the USA vs Guatemala betting tips point to a clear favorite. You can place your bet on the USA vs Guatemala match at bc.game, where competitive odds and a seamless betting experience await.
