The match between Paraguay and Uruguay is very important for both teams because they are both trying to finish in the top six to get a berth in the 2026 World Cup. This Paraguay vs. Uruguay match prediction gives you information on the teams’ form, important players, and tactical details that can help you decide how to bet.
The match will be held in the Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil, Ecuador, on June 5, 2025, at 23:00 GMT+0. It can hold 59,283 people. The refereeing team has not been determined, but this game is very important for the qualification process because every point counts in the close CONMEBOL standings.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
This section sets the stage for a detailed look at recent performances and historical clashes to inform your Paraguay vs Uruguay prediction today. Both teams have shown resilience, but their contrasting styles and current form add layers of intrigue. Paraguay’s unbeaten run under Gustavo Alfaro contrasts with Uruguay’s struggles to convert draws into wins. Historical head-to-head data suggests tight contests, often decided by fine margins. These factors make this match a compelling case for strategic betting.
Paraguay Results
Paraguay, under Gustavo Alfaro’s guidance, have transformed into a formidable unit, remaining unbeaten in their last eight qualification matches. Their home form has been particularly strong, with five wins from seven games in this cycle. This consistency makes them a tough proposition at the Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 26/03/25 | WC | Colombia vs Paraguay | 2:2 | D |
| 21/03/25 | WC | Paraguay vs Chile | 1:0 | W |
| 19/11/24 | WC | Bolivia vs Paraguay | 2:2 | D |
| 15/11/24 | WC | Paraguay vs Argentina | 2:1 | W |
| 16/10/24 | WC | Paraguay vs Venezuela | 2:1 | W |
Paraguay’s recent results highlight their ability to grind out results, even against top opposition like Argentina. Their draws against Colombia and Bolivia show resilience on the road, but their home victories underline their strength in Guayaquil. Antonio Sanabria’s second-half contributions have been pivotal, often turning tight games in their favor. The team’s defensive solidity, conceding just 0.8 goals per game at home, is a cornerstone of their success. However, facing three top-four teams in their next fixtures will test their mettle.
Uruguay Results
Uruguay, managed by Marcelo Bielsa, have struggled for consistency since their Copa América third-place finish, securing only one win in their last eight qualifiers. Their defensive resilience, evidenced by four goalless draws, keeps them competitive, but their lack of cutting edge is a concern. Sitting third, level on points with Paraguay, this match is a must-win to solidify their qualification hopes.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 25/03/25 | WC | Bolivia vs Uruguay | 0:0 | D |
| 22/03/25 | WC | Uruguay vs Argentina | 0:1 | L |
| 20/11/24 | WC | Brazil vs Uruguay | 1:1 | D |
| 16/11/24 | WC | Uruguay vs Colombia | 3:2 | W |
| 16/10/24 | WC | Uruguay vs Ecuador | 0:0 | D |
Uruguay’s results reflect a team that struggles to convert chances, with an xG of 1.2 per game but only 0.8 goals scored on average. Their defensive structure, allowing just 0.9 goals per game, keeps them in matches, but their inability to break down stubborn defenses is evident in their four goalless draws. The win against Colombia showed attacking potential, but the loss to Argentina exposed vulnerabilities against elite sides. Manuel Ugarte’s disciplinary issues could disrupt their midfield balance. A return to their counter-attacking best is crucial here.
Paraguay vs Uruguay Head-to-Head Results
The historical rivalry between Paraguay and Uruguay has been fiercely contested, with Uruguay holding an 11-match unbeaten streak in head-to-head clashes. Their encounters are typically low-scoring, with three of the last five meetings ending in draws. This history adds weight to the Paraguay vs Uruguay prediction 2025, as past results suggest a cagey affair.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 07/09/24 | WC | Uruguay vs Paraguay | 0:0 |
| 28/01/22 | WC | Paraguay vs Uruguay | 0:1 |
| 29/06/21 | CA | Uruguay vs Paraguay | 1:0 |
| 04/06/21 | WC | Uruguay vs Paraguay | 0:0 |
| 06/09/17 | WC | Paraguay vs Uruguay | 1:2 |
Uruguay’s dominance in recent head-to-heads, with six wins and five draws since 2007, gives them a psychological edge. However, Paraguay’s current form and home advantage could challenge this trend. The prevalence of draws, particularly goalless ones, points to a tightly contested match.
Paraguay Possible Starting Lineup
Paraguay, under Gustavo Alfaro, are likely to deploy a 4-4-2 formation, balancing defensive solidity with attacking flair through players like Antonio Sanabria and Miguel Almirón.
Fernandez (GK), Caceres (DF), Balbuena (DF), Alderete (DF), Alonso (DF), Galarza (MF), Gomez (MF), Cubas (MF), Almiron (MF), Pitta (FW), Enciso (FW)
Uruguay Possible Starting Lineup
Uruguay, managed by Marcelo Bielsa, are expected to opt for a 4-2-3-1 setup, relying on Darwin Núñez’s goal-scoring prowess and a robust midfield led by Rodrigo Bentancur.
Rochet (GK), Nandez (DF), R Araujo (DF), Gimenez (DF), Olivera (DF), De la Cruz (MF), Bentancur (MF), De Arrascaeta (MF), Pellistri (FW), Nunez (FW), M Araujo (FW)
Key Factors to Watch
To craft accurate Paraguay vs Uruguay betting tips, several critical elements demand attention. Both teams are in the thick of the qualification race, and individual performances, tactical setups, and external factors will shape the outcome. Below are the key aspects to consider.
- Paraguay’s Home Form: Five wins from seven home games (D1, L1) make them a tough nut to crack at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha;
- Uruguay’s Scoring Struggles: Averaging just 0.8 goals per game in their last eight qualifiers, their attack lacks potency;
- Antonio Sanabria’s Impact: Contributed to four of Paraguay’s last five home goals, with three in the second half;
- Manuel Ugarte’s Discipline: One yellow card away from a suspension, with all four of his cautions coming in the first half;
- Tactical Contrast: Paraguay’s high-pressing style vs. Uruguay’s counter-attacking setup could lead to a midfield battle;
- Historical Trend: Three of the last five head-to-heads ended in draws, with two being goalless;
- No Major Injuries: Both teams are expected to field near-full-strength squads, barring late fitness issues;
- Venue Neutrality: Playing in Guayaquil rather than Paraguay’s home soil slightly levels the playing field.
Free Tips on Paraguay vs Uruguay
To enhance your Paraguay vs Uruguay prediction today, this section provides actionable betting advice based on statistical trends and team dynamics. These tips focus on unique aspects of the match, leveraging data from recent performances and head-to-head encounters. They aim to give you an edge in identifying value bets for this crucial qualifier.
- Evaluate Referee Tendencies: Check the appointed referee’s history for card frequency, as a strict official could amplify the risk of bookings, especially for players like Manuel Ugarte, who is prone to early cautions.
- Consider Pitch Conditions: The Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha’s grass pitch, if affected by rain, could slow Paraguay’s high-pressing game, favoring Uruguay’s counter-attacking style.
- Assess Fixture Fatigue: Paraguay’s upcoming matches against top-four teams may prompt cautious rotation, while Uruguay’s recent congested schedule could lead to tired legs, impacting their intensity.
- Monitor Player Form Trends: Beyond Sanabria, Paraguay’s midfield creators like Miguel Almirón could exploit Uruguay’s defensive gaps, given their low xGA (0.9 per game) in recent qualifiers.
- Factor in Motivation Levels: Both teams are level on points, but Paraguay’s six-point cushion over seventh-placed Venezuela may reduce pressure, while Uruguay’s need to end their winless run adds urgency.
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Paraguay vs Uruguay Match Prediction 2025
Paraguay vs Uruguay odds reflect a closely fought contest, with Paraguay’s home form giving them a slight edge. Paraguay’s unbeaten run under Alfaro, coupled with their ability to grind out results against top sides like Argentina, makes them favorite to at least avoid defeat. Their high-pressing game should exploit Uruguay’s struggles to build attacks, especially given La Celeste’s low goal output (0.8 per game). However, Uruguay’s defensive resilience, with four clean sheets in eight qualifiers, suggests they won’t be easily broken down. Historical data, with three draws in the last five meetings, points to a low-scoring affair, likely decided by a single goal or none at all. Sanabria’s second-half threat could be the difference, but Ugarte’s potential absence might disrupt Uruguay’s midfield, tilting the balance. We predict a narrow Paraguay victory, leveraging their home advantage and current momentum, though a draw remains a strong possibility given Uruguay’s knack for stalemates.
Our Prediction: Paraguay 1-0 Uruguay
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Outcome | Paraguay to Win | 2.5 |
| Both Teams to Score | No | 1.65 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 1.42 |
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