This first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final takes place on Tuesday at St. James’ Park, with kick-off scheduled for 20:00 GMT+0. The match is part of the EFL Cup semi-finals stage, pitting the defending champions Newcastle United against Manchester City, who are eager to reclaim the trophy they last won in 2020-21. Referee Chris Kavanagh will officiate the contest, supported by assistants Dan Cook and Ian Hussin, fourth official Matthew Donohue, and VAR Stuart Attwell.
Newcastle head into this tie full of confidence after lifting the trophy last season and maintaining a strong home record, while Manchester City arrive on a lengthy unbeaten streak but with recent struggles in this competition. The atmosphere at St. James’ Park promises intensity, given the Magpies’ impressive defensive run on their own turf and City’s attacking firepower despite missing several key defenders.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
Both sides enter this Carabao Cup semi-final first leg in excellent overall form, setting the stage for a competitive encounter. Newcastle United vs Manchester City prediction today focuses on their contrasting strengths at home versus away. Recent results highlight Newcastle’s resilience in Newcastle and City’s ability to dominate possession. Key patterns from past meetings suggest goals are likely in these clashes. Expect a tactical battle where motivation for silverware plays a major role.
Newcastle United Results
The Magpies have shown solid consistency across competitions recently, mixing strong home performances with capable away displays. Their run includes convincing wins and a dramatic penalty success, underlining their fighting spirit under Eddie Howe.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 10.01.26 | FAC | Newcastle vs Bournemouth | 4-3 | W |
| 07.01.26 | PL | Newcastle vs Leeds | 4-3 | W |
| 04.01.26 | PL | Newcastle vs Crystal Palace | 2-0 | W |
| 30.12.25 | PL | Burnley vs Newcastle | 1-3 | W |
| 26.12.25 | PL | Manchester Utd vs Newcastle | 1-0 | L |
Newcastle have won four of their last five matches overall, scoring freely at home while keeping clean sheets in key games. The only blemish came on the road against Manchester United, but their home fortress remains intact with no defeats in the last 13 at St. James’ Park. This form boosts their chances in cup ties where momentum matters.
Manchester City Results
Pep Guardiola’s side continue their push across multiple fronts, staying unbeaten in recent outings with a mix of draws and dominant victories. Their attacking output remains elite, even against varied opposition.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 10.01.26 | FAC | Manchester City vs Exeter | 10-1 | W |
| 07.01.26 | PL | Manchester City vs Brighton | 1-1 | D |
| 04.01.26 | PL | Manchester City vs Chelsea | 1-1 | D |
| 01.01.26 | PL | Sunderland vs Manchester City | 0-0 | D |
| 27.12.25 | PL | Nottingham vs Manchester City | 1-2 | W |
Manchester City have remained unbeaten in their last 12 games, combining high-scoring wins with resilient draws in the league. The 10-1 thrashing of Exeter highlights their depth, though recent Premier League results show occasional struggles to break down organized defenses. This unbeaten run provides a strong foundation heading into knockout football.
Newcastle United vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
These two sides have produced competitive, often high-scoring affairs in recent years, with Newcastle showing capability to challenge City, especially at home.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 22.11.25 | PL | Newcastle vs Manchester City | 2-1 |
| 15.02.25 | PL | Manchester City vs Newcastle | 4-0 |
| 28.09.24 | PL | Newcastle vs Manchester City | 1-1 |
| 16.03.24 | FAC | Manchester City vs Newcastle | 2-0 |
| 13.01.24 | PL | Newcastle vs Manchester City | 2-3 |
Newcastle have taken points in three of the last five meetings, including a recent home win and a draw, proving they can trouble City on their patch. City still hold the edge overall, but the Magpies’ record in this fixture adds intrigue to the semi-final.
Predicted Starting Lineups for Newcastle United vs Manchester City
These are the forecasted starting elevens for the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg on January 13, 2026, based on recent team news, injuries, and managerial preferences. Eddie Howe and Pep Guardiola are expected to field competitive sides despite rotation possibilities in cup competitions, with both teams adjusting for several absentees in defense. The selections reflect a likely 4-3-3 shape for Newcastle and a fluid 4-1-4-1 or similar for Manchester City.
Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale (GK), Miley (DF), Thiaw (DF), Botman (DF), Hall (DF), Tonali (MF), Guimaraes (MF), Gordon (MF), Woltemade (FW), Barnes (FW), Wissa (FW).
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Trafford (GK), Nunes (DF), Khusanov (DF), Alleyne (DF), O’Reilly (DF), Gonzalez (MF), Cherki (MF), Foden (MF), Reijnders (MF), Doku (MF), Haaland (FW).
Injured and Questionable Players
Several key players from both squads are sidelined or doubtful for this semi-final clash, forcing adjustments particularly in defensive areas. The list below focuses on those not included in the predicted starting lineups above, highlighting the main absences that could influence the tactical approach.
| Team | Player | Injury |
| Newcastle United | Burn D. | Chest Injury |
| Newcastle United | Elanga A. | Knee Injury |
| Newcastle United | Krafth E. | Knee Injury |
| Newcastle United | Lascelles J. | Muscle Injury |
| Newcastle United | Osula W. | Ankle Injury |
| Newcastle United | Livramento V. | Injury |
| Newcastle United | Murphy J. | Thigh Injury |
| Newcastle United | Schar F. | Injury |
| Manchester City | Bobb O. | Hamstring Injury |
| Manchester City | Dias R. | Thigh Injury |
| Manchester City | Gvardiol J. | Broken Leg |
| Manchester City | Kovacic M. | Heel Injury |
| Manchester City | Stones J. | Thigh Injury |
| Manchester City | Savinho | Health problems |
Key Match Factors to Watch
Both teams face this clash with injuries impacting their options, while form and key players could decide the outcome. Here are the main points that stand out ahead of kick-off.
- Newcastle miss Dan Burn, Emil Krafth, Fabian Schar, Jamaal Lascelles, and William Osula through injury, with Anthony Elanga doubtful ;
- Harvey Barnes is in red-hot form, scoring four goals in his last two appearances for the Magpies ;
- Manchester City are without John Stones, Josko Gvardiol, Mateo Kovacic, Ruben Dias, Savinho, and Oscar Bobb due to injuries ;
- The Citizens have a lengthy unbeaten run of 12 games, showing resilience despite missing defenders;
- Newcastle boast an undefeated streak of 13 home games with 10 wins;
- City have struggled in recent EFL Cup campaigns, exiting early in the last few seasons;
- Motivation is high for both, as Newcastle defend their title and City seek their first win since 2020-21;
- Tactical battles in midfield and set-pieces could prove decisive in a tight contest.
Free Tips on Newcastle United vs Manchester City
This section brings together practical free betting advice tailored specifically to the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg at St. James’ Park. The tips draw directly from the latest team statistics, head-to-head patterns, current form trends, and other match-specific details that often decide close knockout games. Use these pointers to sharpen your view on where potential value might hide in this high-stakes encounter.
- Newcastle’s exceptional home record, with 10 wins and 3 draws in their last 13 games at St. James’ Park, frequently translates into strong starts and resilience against top opposition, making home-based selections attractive in cup ties like this one;
- The last five meetings between these sides have produced an average of over 3 goals per game, with both teams scoring in four out of those five, pointing towards a high likelihood of an open, goal-filled contest;
- Manchester City’s current unbeaten run spans 12 matches, yet their recent Premier League draws against organized defenses suggest they can be held when facing motivated hosts, so consider options that account for a possible stalemate;
- Harvey Barnes arrives in outstanding individual form after netting four times in his previous two outings, giving Newcastle a clear edge in wide areas that could exploit City’s patched-up backline;
- With both clubs carrying multiple defensive absentees and facing a congested January schedule, fatigue and errors at the back become more probable, often leading to games where over goals markets offer solid reasoning.
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Newcastle United vs Manchester City Match Prediction 2026
This semi-final first leg looks set for goals and drama, given both teams’ attacking quality and recent scoring trends at St. James’ Park. Newcastle’s strong home form, combined with their ability to beat City here recently, suggests they can hold their own, while City’s depth and unbeaten streak make them dangerous even away. The market may overreact to City’s injuries at the back, but Newcastle’s missing defenders balance things out. We expect an entertaining draw that keeps the tie alive for the second leg, with both sides scoring. Newcastle United vs Manchester City odds reflect a close contest where value lies in goals over a clear winner.
Our Prediction: Newcastle United 2-2 Manchester City
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.65 |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | 1.53 |
| Total Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.44 |
Bet on match – Newcastle United vs Manchester City you can make at bc.game for competitive options and a smooth experience. As always, enjoy the action responsibly and good luck with your selections.
