Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips – A-League 13/12/2025

A-League

Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United

Sat, 13 Dec 2025 – 08:35

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2.18

Home

3.85

Draw

2.8

Away

The A-League Men Round 8 fixture between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United will take place on Saturday, 13 December 2025, at 08:35 GMT+0 at AAMI Park, Melbourne (capacity 30 050).

The match will be refereed by Shaun Evans, one of the most experienced Australian officials, known for an average of 4.8 yellow cards and 28.5 fouls per game this season. This will be the first meeting of two traditional rivals who have already produced plenty of goals in 2025.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

Melbourne Victory host Adelaide United in what promises to be one of the most entertaining games of the round. Current form, historical trends and key absences make the Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United prediction today heavily tilted toward goals and home pressure. Both teams have shown defensive fragility in recent weeks, while their head-to-head record almost guarantees entertainment.

Melbourne Victory Results

Melbourne Victory have struggled for consistency this season and are still searching for their first home win of the 2025/26 campaign. Tony Popovic’s side have collected only one point from the last twelve available at AAMI Park. Despite that, they remain dangerous going forward, especially against sides that play open football.

Four winless games in a row and zero goals scored in the last three matches at home represent a real crisis in the final third. Victory have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches across all competitions. The only positive result came away against the league’s weakest side so far (Perth Glory).

Adelaide United Results

Adelaide United arrive in Melbourne with an extremely patchy away record but with clear signs of attacking improvement under Carl Veart. The Reds have scored in 8 of their last 9 matches in all competitions. However, keeping clean sheets remains a major problem.

Adelaide have lost their last two away games but scored in both. They have kept only one clean sheet in their last ten A-League matches. When Adelaide play away against top-8 sides this season, the average match total is 3.4 goals.

Who will win Saturday’s A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United?

Melbourne Victory > Draw > Adelaide United >

Melbourne Victory

46%

Draw

20%

Adelaide United

34%

Head-to-Head – Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United

These two clubs have produced fireworks almost every time they meet in recent years.

Four of the last five H2H matches produced Over 2.5 goals, and three produced Over 3.5. Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Adelaide have not kept a clean sheet against Victory in the last 8 encounters.

Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United – Predicted Starting Lineups

Official lineups will be confirmed 60–75 minutes before kick-off, but based on the latest training reports, press conferences, injuries and suspensions, these are the most probable starting XIs.

Melbourne Victory possible starting lineup

Duncan (GK), Davidson – Jackson – Roderick – Inserra (DF), Valadon – D’Arrigo, Grimaldi MF), Mata, Jelacic, Reec (FW)

Adelaide United possible starting lineup

Smits (GK), Pierias – Vriends – Kikianis – Kitto (DF), Muniz – Alagich, Duzel – Dukuly (MF) Goodwin, Javanovic (FW)

Key Factors and Match Insights

Several crucial points will decide the outcome and the goal markets:

• Melbourne Victory are without top scorer Bruno Fornaroli (hamstring, out until January) and captain Roderick Miranda (suspended) – they have scored only 2 goals in 5 matches without Fornaroli this season;
• Adelaide’s key playmaker Nestory Irankunda is doubtful (ankle knock picked up vs Brisbane);
• Victory have failed to score in their last 3 home games – longest drought since 2018;
• Adelaide have conceded 2+ goals in 7 of their last 9 away matches;
• AAMI Park pitch is in perfect condition and expected temperature 24°C – ideal for a fast, open game;
• Referee Shaun Evans has given 6 penalties in his last 8 A-League games involving these two teams;
• Victory have won only 1 of their last 9 home league games (D3 L5);
• Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of the last 10 H2H meetings across all venues combined.

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Free Tips on Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United

These practical, data-driven tips are built exclusively from the statistics of previous matches, head-to-head record and current season trends. The tips below focus on the factors that have repeatedly decided games between these two sides and in their individual performances in 2025/26. Use them to find extra value alongside the main prediction.

• Head-to-Head Goal Trend is Extremely Strong – In the last 10 competitive meetings between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United (since 2022) exactly 90 % finished with Over 2.5 goals and 80 % with Both Teams to Score. Ignoring this historical pattern has been the biggest mistake of sharp bettors this season.
• Adelaide’s Away Defensive Record is Dire Against Top-8 Sides – In 2025/26, when Adelaide travel to teams currently positioned 1st–8th, they have conceded 2 or more goals in 8 of 9 matches (average 2.67 goals against). Victory, despite poor finishing or not, still generate 1.6–1.9 xG at home.
• First Goal After 25th Minute Dramatically Increases Total – In the last seven H2H games where the first goal came after the 25th minute, the matches averaged 4.57 goals. If the game stays 0-0 past the half-hour mark (very possible given Victory’s current scoring drought), expect both teams to open up and the floodgates to follow.
• Corner Markets Offer Huge Value Because of Playing Styles – Melbourne Victory average 6.8 corners at home this season when chasing a result, while Adelaide concede 7.1 corners per away game against possession sides. Last five H2H produced average 12.4 corners per match – Over 10.5 corners has landed in 4 straight meetings.
• Shaun Evans Effect on Cards – Referee Shaun Evans has shown 5+ cards in 7 of his last 8 A-League games involving either Victory or Adelaide. Combined average booking points in those games = 62. Current league average is 48. Small stake on Over 50 booking points or Over 5.5 cards is historically profitable in this fixture.

Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United Match Prediction 2025

Despite Victory’s terrible home form, the absence of Fornaroli and defensive issues for both sides point clearly to goals. Adelaide’s open style perfectly suits Victory’s counter-attacking threats (Machach, Velupillay, Arzani), while the Reds always carry danger through Ibusuki and Tunnicliffe transitions. Current Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United odds heavily underestimate the probability of both teams scoring and a high-scoring affair. Value lies in goal markets rather than the match result.

Our Prediction: Melbourne Victory 2-2 Adelaide United

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