Norway stand on the brink of a first World Cup since 1998, needing just a point at San Siro to seal top spot, while Italy chase a miracle nine-goal swing to snatch automatic qualification. The Azzurri, reborn under Gattuso with six straight wins, seek revenge for June’s Oslo humbling, but Haaland’s 14-goal haul powers a Norwegian juggernaut averaging 4.1 goals per qualifier. Expect fireworks in Milan, pride and history colliding.
The clash kicks off at 19:45 GMT+0 on November 16, 2025, inside the iconic Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan, capacity 80,018. Spaniard Alejandro Hernandez referees, known for 4.8 cards per game in UEFA ties. This final Group I fixture in European World Cup Qualification decides automatic spots and playoff seeding.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
This dead-rubber-turned-revenge-mission pits Italy’s resurgence against Norway’s unstoppable attack, where one lapse could swing fates. Italy vs Norway prediction today leans toward goals, both sides scoring freely lately. Recent results show Azzurri grinding wins, Norwegians routing foes. Head-to-heads favor Italy historically, but June’s 0-3 stings. Bettors eye over totals given 33 Norwegian strikes.
Italy Results
Italy recovered from Oslo shock with six straight qualifier wins under Gattuso, scoring 22, conceding just three. Late goals define them, defense tightens. Playoff prep starts here.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 13/11/2025 | WC | Moldova vs Italy | 0-2 | W |
| 14/10/2025 | WC | Italy vs Israel | 3-0 | W |
| 11/10/2025 | WC | Estonia vs Italy | 1-3 | W |
| 08/09/2025 | WC | Israel vs Italy | 4-5 | W |
| 05/09/2025 | WC | Italy vs Estonia | 5-0 | W |
Six wins on trot underline revival, 18 goals scored post-Oslo. Late headers clinch tight games. Clean sheets in three. Attack averages 3.7, concessions 0.5. Momentum peaks.
Norway Results
Norway dominate Group I, nine wins in ten all comps, 33 qualifier goals, Haaland 14. One draw halts streak. World Cup beckons.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 13/11/2025 | WC | Norway vs Estonia | 4-1 | W |
| 14/10/2025 | Friendly | Norway vs New Zealand | 1-1 | D |
| 11/10/2025 | WC | Norway vs Israel | 5-0 | W |
| 09/09/2025 | WC | Norway vs Moldova | 11-1 | W |
| 04/09/2025 | Friendly | Norway vs Finland | 1-0 | W |
Five straight wins, 22 goals, one conceded. Haaland, Sorloth braces. Draw only blip. Attack 4.4 per game. Unstoppable.
Head-to-Head Between Italy and Norway
Italy own history, but Norway’s June upset flips script. Goals flow in patches. San Siro factor.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 06/06/2025 | WC | Norway vs Italy | 3-0 |
| 13/10/2015 | EURO | Italy vs Norway | 2-1 |
| 09/09/2014 | EURO | Norway vs Italy | 0-2 |
| 04/06/2005 | WC | Norway vs Italy | 0-0 |
| 04/09/2004 | WC | Italy vs Norway | 2-1 |
Norway’s win breaks Italy streak. Overs in three. Revenge motive. Pattern shifts.
Predicted Starting Lineups for Italy vs Norway Football Match
With Norway one point from sealing automatic qualification and Italy needing a miracle nine-goal swing, both managers balance pride, rotation and playoff prep at the iconic San Siro. Gattuso protects key men like Tonali from suspension risk while unleashing firepower for revenge, Solbakken fields full strength to cap a historic campaign with Haaland chasing records. These projected XIs reflect confirmed returns, tactical preferences and late fitness checks.
Italy Predicted Starting Lineup:
Donnarumma (GK), Di Lorenzo (DF), Mancini (DF), Bastoni (DF), Dimarco (DF), Barella (MF), Locatelli (MF), Cristante (MF), Politano (FW), Retegui (FW), Raspadori (FW).
Norway Predicted Starting Lineup:
Nyland (GK), Ryerson (DF), Heggem (DF), Ajer (DF), Bjorkan (DF), Bobb (MF), Berg (MF), Berge (MF), Nusa (MF), Sorloth (FW), Haaland (FW).
Key Factors to Watch
Italy eye pride, Norway history, San Siro roars. Haaland hunts records, Retegui rises. Form screams goals.
- Italy without Tonali (suspension risk), Barella returns;
- Norway miss Odegaard (knee), Ostigard back;
- Azzurri six straight wins, 22 goals;
- Norwegians 33 qualifier strikes, Haaland 14;
- Italy late goals, Norway second-half surges;
- San Siro unbeaten in 12 for Italy;
- No scandals, pure celebration;
- Gattuso rotates, Solbakken full strength.
Free Tips on Italy vs Norway
Norway average 4.1 goals per qualifier, Italy concede 0.5 since Gattuso, yet five of seven combined games hit over 3.5. Haaland scores in 85% Norway wins, Azzurri leak 1.2 to top strikers at San Siro. These targeted nuggets, mined from half splits and ref data, spotlight plays beyond the over line.
- Hernandez averages 5.3 cards in high-profile ties, both sides over 2.9 fouls won, over 4.5 bookings hits 65%;
- Italy score 70% after 60′ in wins, Norway concede 55% late, second half over 1.5 goals lands consistently;
- Milan November chill, 8-12°C dry, keeps San Siro grass zippy, expect 12+ total shots from open play;
- Retegui nets or assists in 75% Italy starts, Norway leak 1.4 centrally, Retegui anytime scorer value;
- With qualification sealed, Norway rotate lightly, subs impact 1.3 goals, Italy +0.5 second half tempts.
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Italy vs Norway Match Prediction 2025
Italy vs Norway odds favor Azzurri 2.10, but we back 2-2, attacks too potent for clean sheets. Italy average 3.7 goals since Gattuso, Norway 4.1, Poisson 42% draw. BTTS yes fits, both score in 80% recent. Over 3.5 aligns, five of seven combined hit. Norway need point, Italy pride, open play ensues. Haaland, Sorloth exploit, Retegui counters.
Our Prediction: Italy 2-2 Norway
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.65 |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | 1.61 |
| Total Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.64 |
At BC.Game, we love qualifiers where stars shine and goals rain. Bet on match – Italy vs Norway you can make at bc.game, grab over boosts, and celebrate the spectacle, our lines deliver.
