The A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Adelaide United will take place on November 29, 2025, at 04:00 GMT+0 at Sky Stadium, Wellington. The 34,500-capacity venue is expected to see strong home support. Brazilian referee Elder D. will officiate the game he averages 26.4 fouls and 4.8 cards per match in the A-League this season.
This Round 8 fixture is crucial for both sides. Wellington sit mid-table after an inconsistent start, while Adelaide have climbed into the top-6 thanks to a perfect home record so far. Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United prediction today points to a high-intensity encounter with recent trends favoring goals and away resilience.
BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United prediction today leans toward another competitive, high-scoring game given the history and current momentum. Both teams have shown attacking intent this season, but defensive fragility remains a common theme. Recent head-to-heads rarely end goalless, and the market has already started moving. Home advantage at Sky Stadium usually adds pressure on visitors, yet Adelaide’s counter-attacking style travels well. Expect early line shifts as team news drops 24 hours before kick-off.
Wellington Phoenix Results
Wellington Phoenix have struggled to find consistency in the 2025/26 campaign, winning only one of their last five matches across all competitions. Their home form is particularly concerning — just one victory in the last four at Sky Stadium. Defensive lapses in transition have cost them points repeatedly.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 22.11.2025 | A-League | Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur | 0-1 | L |
| 08.11.2025 | A-League | Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland | 1-2 | L |
| 02.11.2025 | A-League | Central Coast vs Wellington | 1-1 | D |
| 26.10.2025 | A-League | Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane | 2-1 | W |
| 18.10.2025 | A-League | Perth Glory vs Wellington | 2-2 | D |
Wellington have scored in four of their last five but conceded in every single one. They average 1.8 goals against at home this season. Only one clean sheet in the last ten competitive games underlines their vulnerability. The two most recent home defeats came against newly-promoted sides, showing even modest attacks can punish them. Giampaoli’s red-card suspension from the Macarthur game further weakens the backline.
Adelaide United Results
Adelaide United arrive in excellent spirits after back-to-back home wins, scoring six goals in the process. Their away record remains the weak link just one point from the last two road trips. Still, they have found the net in eight consecutive matches.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 21.11.2025 | A-League | Adelaide vs Melbourne City | 4-1 | W |
| 07.11.2025 | A-League | Adelaide vs WS Wanderers | 2-0 | W |
| 01.11.2025 | A-League | Auckland vs Adelaide | 2-1 | L |
| 27.10.2025 | A-League | Macarthur vs Adelaide | 2-1 | L |
| 17.10.2025 | A-League | Adelaide vs Sydney FC | 2-1 | W |
Adelaide’s home/away split is stark: 9 points from 3 home games, only 0 from the last two away. They score 1.9 goals per game overall but concede 1.7 on the road. Nestory Irankunda (4 goals, 3 assists) is in scintillating form and has been involved in 70% of their last six goals. Defensive injuries have eased, with Barr and Ansarifard both back in full training.
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United Head-to-Head
The fixture has produced goals relentlessly 19 in the last five meetings (average 3.8 per game). Adelaide have won three of the last four encounters, including both visits to Sky Stadium in 2025.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 18.04.2025 | A-League | Adelaide vs Wellington | 3-2 |
| 11.01.2025 | A-League | Wellington vs Adelaide | 1-2 |
| 03.03.2024 | A-League | Wellington vs Adelaide | 3-2 |
| 04.01.2024 | A-League | Adelaide vs Wellington | 2-2 |
| 05.05.2023 | A-League | Adelaide vs Wellington | 2-0 |
Four of the last five produced Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals. Adelaide are unbeaten in the last three head-to-heads away from home.
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United – Predicted Starting Lineups
Team news is confirmed roughly 60 minutes before kick-off, but below are the most probable starting XIs based on latest training reports, previous selections and current injury situation as of 28 November 2025.
Wellington Phoenix possible starting lineup
Oluwayemi (GK) — Loke, Sheridan, Hughes, Kelly-Heald (DF) — Rufer, Nagasawa, Armiento, Conchie – (MF), Najjarine, Eze (FW )
Adelaide United possible starting lineup
Smits (GK) — Pierias, Vriends, Kikianis, Kitto (DF) — Alagich, Muñoz, Dukuly, Duzel – (MF), Goodwin, Jovanovic (FW)
Key Match Facts and Team News
- Wellington will miss central defender Giampaoli (suspension) and midfielder Payne (doubtful, hamstring);
- Adelaide have no fresh injury concerns; Irankunda and Tunnicliffe are fully fit after minor knocks;
- Wellington have kept only one clean sheet in their last 14 home league games;
- Adelaide have scored in 13 consecutive A-League matches;
- Average goals in H2H since 2023: 3.92;
- Sky Stadium has seen Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of Wellington’s last 9 league games;
- Referee Elder D. issued 7+ cards in 60% of his A-League games this season;
- Wellington’s xGA at home this season: 1.94 per 90 (worst in the league).
Free Tips on Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United
Before placing any bet on this A-League fixture, a quick check of the underlying data patterns can significantly improve your decision-making. The numbers from recent matches, head-to-head meetings and situational factors consistently point in the same direction. Here are the five most exploitable edge for Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United on 29 November 2025.
- Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 8 of the last 9 Wellington home league games and in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings — Sky Stadium averages 3.67 goals per game this season; both defences rank bottom-5 for xGA conceded.
- Both Teams To Score – Yes is 10-2 in Adelaide’s last 12 competitive matches and 7-1 in Wellington’s last 8 home games — only one clean sheet combined between the two sides in their last 17 league outings.
- Adelaide have scored in 13 consecutive A-League matches and in their last 6 visits to Sky Stadium — Wellington have kept just one clean sheet in their last 14 home league games.
- Referee Elder D. averages 5.3 cards per game this season and went Over 4.5 cards in 7 of his last 10 A-League appointments — these two teams average a combined 5.1 cards per match in 2025.
- Matches between these sides produced 19 goals in the last five meetings (average 3.8 per game) — four of those five games saw both Over 2.5 and BTTS, making goal-based bets the highest-value angle again.
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Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United Match Prediction 2025
Current Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United odds reflect a tight contest (home win ~2.55, draw ~3.60, away win ~2.60), but the value lies in goals and cards markets. Wellington’s defensive crisis combined with Adelaide’s counter-attacking threat and Irankunda’s red-hot form should produce another open encounter. The model projects 3.1–3.4 total expected goals, with 68% probability of Both Teams To Score and 61% chance of Over 2.5. Adelaide’s superior head-to-head record away at this venue since 2024 makes the Draw No Bet option particularly attractive.
Our Prediction: Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Adelaide United
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Adelaide United | 2.08 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.58 |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes | 1.52 |
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