Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense (2:1): Copa Betano do Brasil 11/12/2025

December 11, 2025

Status: Finished

2-1

Copa Betano do Brasil

Vasco da Gama

Fluminense

The first leg of the Copa Betano do Brasil semi-final will take place on 11 December 2025 at 23:00 GMT+0 at the historic São Januário stadium in Rio de Janeiro. With a capacity of 21 880, the iconic venue will be sold out for this classic Carioca clash. The match will be officiated by experienced Brazilian referee Raphael Claus, known for averaging 5.1 yellow cards and 0.32 red cards per game in 2025. This is the first of two legs that will decide who faces either Corinthians or Flamengo in the final of Brazil’s most prestigious cup competition.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

One of the most intense derbies in Brazilian football returns at the decisive stage of the cup. Vasco host Fluminense in a tie that is impossible to call on recent league form alone, making the Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense prediction today extremely attractive for value hunters. Both clubs have already secured their places in the 2026 Copa Libertadores via league position, so maximum focus and strongest line-ups are guaranteed.

Vasco da Gama Results

Vasco come into the semi-final after a disastrous end to their Serie A campaign, losing four of their last five matches and conceding 15 goals in the process. Álvaro Pacheco’s side have been particularly vulnerable at São Januário lately, suffering heavy home defeats.

The only bright spot in the last month was the 5-1 thrashing of Internacional, but that remains an outlier. Defensive fragility is evident – Vasco have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten competitive games. The team has conceded 2+ goals in six of their last eight matches across all competitions. São Januário has stopped being a fortress: three consecutive home defeats with 12 goals conceded.

Fluminense Results

Fluminense, in contrast, finished the Serie A season in spectacular fashion under Mano Menezes, going unbeaten in their last eight league matches and recording several crushing victories.

Flu have won seven of their last nine matches in all competitions. They have scored 2+ goals in six of their last eight games. Mano Menezes’ side have kept clean sheets in three of their last five away matches. The attack led by Germán Cano and John Arias is in devastating form.

Who will win Thursday’s Copa Betano do Brasil clash between Vasco da Gama and Fluminense?

Vasco da Gama > Draw > Fluminense >

Vasco da Gama

20%

Draw

30%

Fluminense

50%

Head-to-Head – Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense (Last 5 meetings)

Fluminense have won three of the last five H2H meetings, but Vasco have won both of the most recent encounters at São Januário (2-0 in 2025 and 2024).

Predicted Starting Lineups: Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense

With the Copa do Brasil semi-final first leg just hours away on December 11, 2025, both Álvaro Pacheco and Mano Menezes are set to deploy their strongest available XIs to gain an early advantage in this two-legged tie. These predicted lineups account for the latest injury updates, tactical setups from recent Serie A matches, and the high stakes of the derby, where home support at São Januário could prove decisive. Formations are based on the teams’ preferred 4-2-3-1 systems, emphasizing defensive solidity for Vasco and fluid attacking transitions for Fluminense.

Vasco da Gama Possible Starting Lineup

Léo Jardim (GK), Paulo Henrique (DF), Carlos Cuesta (DF), Robert Renan (DF), Lucas Piton (DF), Tchê Tchê (MF), Cauan Barros (MF), Andrés Gómez (MF), Philippe Coutinho (FW), Nuno Moreira (FW), Rayan (FW).

Fluminense Possible Starting Lineup

Fábio (GK), Samuel Xavier (DF), Thiago Silva (DF), Juan Freytes (DF), Renê (DF), Martinelli (MF), Nonato (MF), Agustín Canobbio (MF), Luciano Acosta (MF), Kevin Serna (FW), Everaldo (FW).

Key Factors to Watch Before Betting

• Vasco will be without key defender Maicon (suspended) and midfielder Jair (ACL tear until March 2026) – major blow for defensive stability;
• Fluminense have a fully fit squad; even long-term absentee Marcelo is back in full training;
• Vasco have lost their last three home games, conceding 12 goals;
• Fluminense are on a 7-win streak in all competitions when scoring first;
• São Januário has seen over 2.5 goals in seven of Vasco’s last eight home matches;
• Fluminense have won four of their last five away games in cup competitions;
• Average cards in H2H with referee Claus: 6.8 yellows per game;
• Temperature in Rio on match day expected +29°C with 85% humidity – favours technically superior side.

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Free Tips on Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense

Smart punters never bet on a Carioca clásico just because of the atmosphere – they dig into the data that actually moves the needle. Below are five high-edge, non-obvious tips specifically for this Copa do Brasil semi-final first leg, based purely on statistics, trends and situational factors that are not yet fully reflected in the market.

• End-of-season “cup reset” effect is massive in Brazil – Teams that finished the league poorly (like Vasco, 4 defeats in last 5) historically perform 0.38 goals better in the first Copa do Brasil knockout match after the break because the slate is wiped clean and pressure shifts. However, when the losing streak is ≥4 matches, the effect disappears completely – Vasco are exactly in that negative zone (0 wins in last 5).
• Fluminense’s counter-attack efficiency against low-block sides at São Januário – In the last three visits to this stadium (2024-2025), Fluminense generated 1.84 xG from counter-attacks alone when Vasco sat deep. Current Vasco under Pacheco drop to an average PPDA of 14.8 at home when protecting a result – perfect conditions for Cano/Arias/Keno transitions.
• Referee Raphael Claus & São Januário factor – Claus has officiated 9 Vasco home games since 2023: home team received 0 penalties, away side got 3. Additionally, over 4.5 cards landed in 8 of those 9 matches and in 7 of the first card was shown before the 27th minute. Early tactical fouls from desperate Vasco defence are almost guaranteed.
• Fluminense away in mid-week cup games after a weekend win – Since Mano Menezes took over, Flu played 7 away cup matches that were scheduled 3-4 days after a league victory: 6 wins, 1 draw, average 2.57 goals scored, only 0.43 conceded. Current schedule matches this pattern 100 %.
• Pitch watering policy at São Januário in December – With expected 29 °C and 85 % humidity, the ground staff heavily water the pitch 30-40 minutes before kick-off (confirmed by club’s social media in last 4 December home games). This makes the natural grass significantly faster in the first half – Fluminense rank 2nd in Brazil for progressive passes per 90 on fast surfaces, Vasco rank 17th.

Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense Match Prediction 2025

Current Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense odds dramatically underestimate Fluminense’s momentum and Vasco’s defensive crisis. Mano Menezes’ team are playing their best football of the season at exactly the right moment, while Vasco look broken after the 5-0 humiliation in Belo Horizonte. São Januário will be electric, but the pitch data is clear: Fluminense create 1.9 xG per away game in the last two months, while Vasco concede 2.1 xG at home. With Maicon suspended and the team mentally fragile, the visitors have a huge edge in the first leg.

Our Prediction: Vasco da Gama 1-2 Fluminense

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