Sturm Graz vs LASK (1:3): Austrian Bundesliga 23/11/2025

November 23, 2025

Status: Finished

1-3

Austrian Bundesliga

Sturm Graz

LASK

Sturm Graz host LASK in a crucial Austrian Bundesliga round 15 clash on Sunday 23 November 2025. Kick-off is scheduled for 13:30 GMT+0 at Merkur-Arena in Graz, capacity 16 364, with Walter Altmann officiating. Two of the traditional top-six sides meet at a point where momentum could hardly be more different.

Sturm are winless in three but remain third, while LASK arrive on a four-game winning streak and sit just two points behind in the race for European spots. Sturm Graz vs LASK prediction today focuses on the visitors’ defensive solidity rather than home reputation.

Betting Tips and Match Insights

Market keeps Sturm short around 1.90 because of home record, yet LASK won four straight league games while conceding zero goals in three of them. Only one of the last seven head-to-heads exceeded 2.5 goals. Sturm Graz vs LASK match prediction sees value in backing the in-form travellers rather than fading their current process.

Sturm Graz Results

Sturm dropped points in three consecutive matches across all competitions and scored just twice in that run. Home form took a hit with the 1-3 loss to Wolfsberger before the break. European commitments clearly drained energy levels.

Only one win in five matches across all competitions. Home defensive record collapsed, conceding four in last two league games at Merkur-Arena. Expected goals against jumped to 1.8 per game during this slump. Counter-attack remains their only real threat. Set-piece conversion rate dropped below 8%.

LASK Results

LASK won four straight Bundesliga matches without conceding in three of them. They scored exactly one goal in each victory, showing ruthless efficiency. Away form transformed completely under the new tactical setup.

Four clean sheets in five competitive matches. They kept opponents under 0.7 xG in each league win. Away expected goals conceded sits at league-best 0.61 per game. Only one goal conceded in 360 Bundesliga minutes. Transition speed increased 18% since October.

Who will win Sunday’s Austrian Bundesliga clash between Sturm Graz and LASK?

Sturm Graz > Draw > LASK >

Sturm Graz

48%

Draw

26%

LASK

26%

Sturm Graz vs LASK Head-to-Head (Last 5 Meetings)

Sturm won three of the last five meetings, but LASK took maximum points in August this season. Four of five produced under 2.5 goals.

Sturm hold historical edge at home with three wins in last four. LASK ended a seven-game winless run against Sturm in August. Average goals dropped to 2.2 per game in this fixture since 2023.

Predicted Starting Lineups: Sturm Graz vs LASK

These projected lineups are based on the latest training reports, tactical trends and confirmed absences. Sturm Graz stick to their usual attacking setup, while LASK continue with the compact 3-4-1-2 that brought them four straight wins. Both coaches have almost no room for rotation due to injuries.

Sturm Graz Predicted Lineup

Christensen (GK), Oermann (DF), Lavalee (DF), Karic (DF), Stankovic (DF), Chukwuani (MF), Horvat (MF), Kiteishvili (AM), Kayombo (AM), Malone (AM), Chukwuani (FW).

LASK Predicted Lineup

Jungwirth (GK), Cisse (DF), Andrade (DF), Alemao (DF), Flecker (MF), Bogarde (MF), Horvath (MF), Bello (MF), Danek (AM), Usor (FW), Adeniran (FW).

Injured and Questionable Players

Both squads are heavily affected by absences, particularly in attack and midfield depth. The injury list forces both managers into predictable selections with almost no bench impact options.

Key Match Factors

Current momentum clashes directly with historical home advantage. Small squad rotation details become decisive. Defensive processes decide everything in modern Austrian football.

• Sturm miss only young forward Beganovic (7/1) with muscle issue;
• LASK without midfielder Smakaj and defender Jorgensen remains doubtful;
• LASK kept clean sheets in 7 of their last 9 competitive matches;
• Sturm failed to score in first half of last four home games;
• Expected temperature 6°C with light rain, pitch will be slick;
• Referee Altmann issued 6.2 cards per game this season;
• LASK rank 1st for PPDA away, pressing intensity unchanged on the road;
• Sturm’s high line exposed on transitions in last three matches;
• Only 14% of LASK away games this season saw both teams score.

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Free Tips on Sturm Graz vs LASK

Three sharp, data-backed angles stand out when you focus purely on trends and numbers rather than reputation. These come directly from recent process, fixture history, and market inefficiencies specific to this pair. Use them as standalone plays or combine for bigger returns.

• LASK kept a clean sheet in seven of their last nine competitive games and face a Sturm side that scored only once in the last 270 minutes against current top-eight teams; LASK draw-no-bet around 2.20 still undervalues their defensive process.
• Five of the last six LASK league matches plus four of the last five head-to-heads finished under 2.5 goals; under 2.5 at 1.95 or better remains the highest-probability outcome according to expected goals models.
• Sturm failed to score in the first half of their last six home games when facing a team with PPDA under 11; LASK half-time result or draw in first half often trades above 2.10 and fits the pattern perfectly.
• Only one of the last eight meetings at Merkur-Arena saw both teams score and LASK’s new 3-4-2-1 limits central progression; BTTS-No at 2.00+ carries strong historical and tactical backing.
• Forecast shows 6°C with steady rain on a natural grass pitch that traditionally slows in November; total match corners under 10.5 has landed in nine of LASK’s last eleven away games under similar conditions.

Sturm Graz vs LASK Match Prediction 2025

Sturm Graz vs LASK odds of 3.40 on the visitors look mispriced when LASK kept four consecutive clean sheets and Sturm scored once in 270 minutes against top-eight sides. Expected goals model projects 1.04 for Sturm and 1.31 for LASK, numbers that historically produce away win or draw in 68% cases when the home side is winless in three. LASK’s low-block counter system perfectly exploits Sturm’s current high line and poor recovery pace, exactly how they already won 2-0 in August. One early transition goal would force Sturm to chase and open further gaps against the league’s best pressing side away from home. Low-scoring LASK win or draw fits every metric.

Our Prediction: Sturm Graz 0-1 LASK

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