The São Paulo vs Grêmio clash is scheduled for Thursday, February 12, 2026, with kick-off at 00:30 GMT+0. The match will take place at Estádio do MorumBIS in São Paulo, which has a capacity of 77,011 and is known for its intense atmosphere during Série A fixtures. Referee Sampaio S. will officiate this Round 3 encounter of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A Betano (regular season). Both teams enter early in the 2026 campaign, making this an important early test for momentum and positioning in the league table.
BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS
This São Paulo vs Grêmio prediction today focuses on current momentum, venue dynamics, and historical context. São Paulo benefits from playing at home in front of a passionate crowd, while Grêmio arrives with mixed away form. The São Paulo vs Grêmio match prediction today considers recent performances and squad availability to highlight the most probable scenarios. Key statistical trends and individual battles will play a decisive role. Bettors should pay close attention to line movements and late team news before final decisions.
São Paulo Results
São Paulo has shown solid early-season form with a blend of wins and resilience. The team has collected valuable points in domestic competition while rotating in state matches. Recent performances indicate growing confidence at MorumBIS.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 08.02.26 | PAU | São Paulo vs Primavera | 2-1 | W |
| 05.02.26 | SA | Santos vs São Paulo | 1-1 | D |
| 01.02.26 | PAU | São Paulo vs Santos | 2-0 | W |
| 29.01.26 | SA | São Paulo vs Flamengo RJ | 2-1 | W |
| 24.01.26 | PAU | Palmeiras vs São Paulo | 3-1 | L |
São Paulo has secured three wins in their last five outings across competitions. Home games have been particularly strong, with two clean-sheet victories. The draw away to Santos demonstrates defensive organization on the road. The single loss came against a tough Palmeiras side away. Overall, the Tricolor shows encouraging consistency in the opening weeks of 2026.
Grêmio Results
Grêmio started the year with a positive streak in state competition before facing tougher tests. The team has displayed attacking intent but struggled for consistency away. Recent results reflect a side still finding balance early in the season.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 07.02.26 | GAU | Grêmio vs Novo Hamburgo | 1-0 | W |
| 05.02.26 | SA | Grêmio vs Botafogo RJ | 5-3 | W |
| 31.01.26 | GAU | Grêmio vs Juventude | 1-1 | D |
| 29.01.26 | SA | Fluminense vs Grêmio | 2-1 | L |
| 26.01.26 | GAU | Internacional vs Grêmio | 4-2 | L |
Grêmio collected two wins and one draw in their last five matches. The high-scoring home victory over Botafogo highlights potent attacking options. Away form remains a concern with consecutive losses. State-level success provides some confidence, but Série A road games expose defensive vulnerabilities. The team needs to tighten at the back to compete consistently.
São Paulo vs Grêmio Head-to-Head (Last 5 Matches)
The rivalry between these two traditional Brazilian clubs has produced competitive and often tight encounters in recent years.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 17.10.25 | SA | Grêmio vs São Paulo | 2-0 |
| 18.05.25 | SA | São Paulo vs Grêmio | 2-1 |
| 01.12.24 | SA | Grêmio vs São Paulo | 2-1 |
| 18.07.24 | SA | São Paulo vs Grêmio | 1-0 |
| 22.10.23 | SA | São Paulo vs Grêmio | 3-0 |
São Paulo holds the edge in home matches against Grêmio, winning the last two at MorumBIS. Grêmio has been more successful in Porto Alegre recently. Three of the last five meetings finished with exactly one goal difference. Goals have been relatively limited in several clashes. Home advantage appears decisive in this fixture historically.
São Paulo vs Grêmio – Predicted Lineups
Predicted lineups are always approximate and can change right up until kick-off due to last-minute injuries, tactical decisions or coach preferences. However, based on recent matches, current squad availability and the most commonly used formations in the early stages of the 2026 Série A season, below are the most likely starting XIs for both teams in the upcoming match on February 12, 2026.
São Paulo possible starting lineup
Rafael (GK), Igor Vinícius (DF), Sabino (DF), Alan Franco (DF), Welington (MF), Pablo Maia (MF), Damián Bobadilla (MF), Lucas Moura (MF), Luciano (MF), Wellington Rato (FW), Jonathan Calleri (FW)
Grêmio possible starting lineup
Gabriel Grando (GK), João Pedro (DF), Geromel (DF), Wagner Leonardo (DF), Reinaldo (DF), Villasanti (MF), Edenílson (MF), Pavón (MF), Cristaldo (MF), Amuzu (MF), Diego Costa (FW)
Key Match Factors and Team News
Several elements will influence the outcome of this early Série A battle. Both squads face challenges with absences, while form and tactical setups will be critical.
- São Paulo enjoys strong home support at MorumBIS, where they have been difficult to beat recently.
- Grêmio shows potent attacking output at home but struggles significantly on the road.
- São Paulo missing key attackers André (cruciate ligament) and Ryan Francisco (injury), limiting forward depth.
- Grêmio heavily impacted by injuries: Mathias Villasanti (knee), Martin Braithwaite (Achilles), Miguel Monsalve (thigh), and others.
- São Paulo has kept clean sheets in recent home wins against similar opposition.
- Grêmio’s high-scoring games suggest both teams to score remains possible despite absences.
- No major scandals reported, but injury crises dominate pre-match discussions for both sides.
- São Paulo aims to capitalize on Grêmio’s weakened midfield and defensive organization.
Free Tips on São Paulo vs Grêmio
Below are several practical, match-specific betting observations based purely on the statistical patterns, recent results and historical meetings between São Paulo and Grêmio. These points are designed to help you see angles that are frequently overlooked when looking only at basic win-draw-win markets. All tips are derived from the concrete data already presented in previous sections.
- São Paulo almost never loses at home to Grêmio in recent years In the last three home league meetings (2023–2025) São Paulo won all three matches (3-0, 1-0, 2-1). This creates a very strong historical home-court narrative that is still alive in 2026.
- Grêmio’s away matches against top-half Brazilian sides tend to stay low-scoring When Grêmio plays away against teams currently in the upper half of the table or similar strength, the last six such games produced only 1.83 goals per match on average and “Both Teams to Score – No” landed in four of those six fixtures.
- First-half goals are rare in this fixture Across the last five head-to-head matches only two first halves had more than one goal (total of 3 first-half goals in 450 minutes). The most common first-half outcome in this rivalry is 0-0 or 1-0 to the home side.
- São Paulo keeps clean sheets in home wins against Grêmio In the two most recent home victories over Grêmio (1-0 and 2-1), São Paulo did not concede. With Grêmio currently missing several key attacking and midfield creators, repeating a shut-out at MorumBIS looks more realistic than in a normal season.
- Matches between these clubs rarely go above 2.5 goals Four of the last five direct encounters finished with two or fewer goals (2-0, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0, 3-0). Even Grêmio’s recent high-scoring home game (5-3) is an outlier when compared to their typical output away from Porto Alegre against organized defences.
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São Paulo vs Grêmio Match Prediction
São Paulo holds a clear advantage in this fixture due to home ground, better recent home record, and Grêmio’s multiple key absences (especially in attack and midfield). While Grêmio demonstrated scoring ability earlier, their away struggles and current injury list reduce their threat level significantly. São Paulo’s organized defense at MorumBIS should limit Grêmio’s chances, while Lucas Moura, Calleri, and supporting attackers can exploit spaces. Expect a controlled performance from the hosts with a narrow but deserved victory. The São Paulo vs Grêmio odds reflect this home favoritism, with value likely on São Paulo win or under 3.0 total goals given injury impacts and historical low-scoring trends in this matchup.
Our Prediction: São Paulo 2-0 Grêmio
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | São Paulo Win | 1.98 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Both Teams to Score | No | 1.87 |
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