Qatar vs Tunisia Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips – FIFA Arab Cup 07/12/2025

FIFA Arab Cup

Qatar vs Tunisia

Sun, 07 Dec 2025 – 17:00

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3.15

Home

3.15

Draw

2.22

Away

The decisive Group A clash of the FIFA Arab Cup 2025 will take place on December 7, 2025, at 17:00 GMT+0 at the iconic Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor, Qatar (capacity 68,895). This is the final round of the group stage where only the winner is guaranteed a place in the quarter-finals — a classic “win-or-go-home” scenario for both nations. The match referee has not yet been officially announced by FIFA (expected announcement on December 6), but the average card index in the tournament so far is 4.2 yellow cards per game with a tendency toward strict control in the midfield zone.

Both teams enter the match with just one point after two rounds and identical goal difference -1. Qatar, as hosts and reigning Asian Cup champions, cannot afford to crash out at the group stage on home soil, while Tunisia must finally break a five-match winless streak to keep their Arab Cup hopes alive. This Qatar vs Tunisia prediction today focuses on the desperate motivation and key absences that will shape the outcome.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

Our Qatar vs Tunisia prediction today is built on hard statistical trends rather than emotions. Recent matches show both teams struggling to convert chances, producing low-scoring games and frequent draws. Head-to-head history is extremely limited, so current form, home/away splits and key player availability become the decisive factors. The market currently undervalues the home advantage at Al Bayt Stadium and overestimates Tunisia’s attacking threat after their collapse against Palestine.

Qatar Results

Qatar have failed to win any of their last four competitive matches and scored only once in the current Arab Cup. Home advantage has been their only consistent positive factor in 2025, but even that has produced just two victories in six games across all competitions. Defensive organisation remains solid, yet the prolonged absence of top scorer Almoez Ali is clearly hurting their cutting edge.

Qatar have kept things tight defensively (only three goals conceded in the last four games) but their attack looks toothless without Almoez Ali. They have not won in 90 minutes since mid-October, and the 0:1 loss to Palestine exposed vulnerability to quick counter-attacks. Home games still deliver cleaner sheets (two in the last three), yet scoring first remains a serious problem — they trailed at half-time in three of the last five matches.

Tunisia Results

Tunisia are stuck in a worrying winless run that now stretches to five matches across all competitions. They have drawn four of their last six games, including throwing away a 2-0 lead against Palestine in the previous round. Defensive errors in the final minutes have become a recurring theme.

The Eagles of Carthage have not won away from home since early 2025 and have managed only five goals in their last six matches overall. Late concessions are killing them — they dropped points after the 90th minute in two of the last three games. Despite decent xG figures (average 1.35 per game), conversion rate sits at a miserable 9 % in the Arab Cup.

Who will win Sunday’s FIFA Arab Cup clash between Qatar and Tunisia?

Qatar > Draw > Tunisia >

Qatar

25%

Draw

25%

Tunisia

50%

Qatar vs Tunisia Head-to-Head (Last 5 Meetings)

Direct encounters between these sides are extremely rare at senior level — only four matches in history and none since 2019. Tunisia hold the historical edge, but the sample is too small to draw reliable conclusions. Current form and venue make past results almost irrelevant.

Tunisia are unbeaten in the last three meetings (2 wins, 1 draw) and kept clean sheets in all three victories. However, the gap between encounters (minimum six years) and the fact that Qatar won the most recent home H2H in 2001 render this data largely obsolete for betting purposes.

Qatar vs Tunisia – Predicted Starting Lineups

Официальные составы будут объявлены за 75 минут до начала матча (примерно в 18:45 AST 07.12.2025), но на основе последних тренировок, пресс-конференций тренеров и ротации в первых двух турах Arab Cup можно с высокой долей уверенности прогнозировать стартовые одиннадцатки. Ниже — наиболее вероятные составы на сегодняшний день.

Qatar possible starting lineup

Barsham (GK) — Salman, Hussain, Laye, Waad (DF) — Edmilson, Hatem, Gaber, Amin  (DM) — Afif, Mannai (FW)

Tunisia possible starting lineup

Dahmen (GK) — Ali, Jelassi, Meriah, Maaloul (DF) — Tka, Sassi, Gharbi, Layouni (MF) — Romdhane, Chaouat (FW)

Key Factors to Watch

• Almoez Ali remains sidelined for Qatar — their all-time top scorer (37 goals) is out until mid-January 2026;
• Akram Afif carries the entire Qatar attack — 2 shots on target per game in the tournament so far;
• Tunisia have not kept a clean sheet in their last six matches and conceded after the 85th minute in three of the last four;
• Qatar are unbeaten in their last seven home games at Al Bayt Stadium across all competitions (5W-2D);
• Tunisia have drawn four of their last six matches — the joint-longest active streak among Arab Cup participants;
• Average total goals in Group A matches so far: exactly 2.0 per game;
• Qatar have scored exactly one goal in four of their last six home matches;
• Tunisia’s expected goals away from home in 2025 average only 0.92 — one of the lowest among participating teams.

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Free Tips on Qatar vs Tunisia

The Qatar vs Tunisia clash is a perfect example of a match where small details will decide everything: one goal can send the hosts to the quarter-finals and eliminate the guests. Classic statistics like league position or long-term trends matter less here than short-term factors specific to this exact game on December 7. Below are five sharp, non-obvious tips based purely on the data from the current tournament, recent schedule and situational context — exactly the edges that separate profitable bets from guesses.

• Congested fixture list hits Tunisia harder. Tunisia played intense friendlies against Brazil (18.11), Jordan (14.11) and Mauritania (12.11) just before the Arab Cup, then two group games in four days. Qatar had a 17-day break after the Zimbabwe friendly and only one match in the last week — fresher legs and higher pressing intensity expected from the hosts in the second half.
• Al Bayt Stadium pitch is fast natural grass + closed roof in December mode. The surface here is kept at premium European level (height 22-24 mm, hardness 75-80 Gmax). Qatar train on identical pitches daily at Aspire Academy, while most Tunisian clubs and the national team are used to slower, drier fields in Tunis. In the previous Arab Cup game at this stadium, Qatar averaged 12.1 sprints >25 km/h per player; visiting teams rarely exceed 9.5.
• Tunisia’s late-collapse syndrome is real. In 2025 they have dropped 8 points after the 85th minute (including the 90+5′ equaliser vs Palestine four days ago). Qatar deliberately slow the tempo after 70 minutes at home (possession jumps from 54 % to 68 % in the last 20 minutes) — perfect recipe to invite pressure and punish on the break.
• Referee profile in decisive Arab Cup games tends to “let it flow”. In the last three knockout-stage or must-win group games of this tournament (2021 + 2025), average added time in the second half was 7:12 minutes and only 30 % of 50/50 fouls were whistled. Tunisia commit 14.8 fouls per game when chasing a result — expect multiple dangerous free-kicks in +90′ territory for Qatar.
• Qatar deliberately target the left defensive channel of opponents at Al Bayt. 42 % of their attacks in home games this year go down the left flank where Akram Afif operates. Tunisia’s right-back Ali Maâloul is 33, just returned from injury and was directly at fault for both late goals against Palestine — the highest-probability zone for the decisive moment of the match.

Qatar vs Tunisia Match Prediction and Best Bets

Qatar vs Tunisia odds clearly underestimate the hosts: the current line of Qatar 0 (Asian Handicap) at around 1.95 offers excellent value given the circumstances. Home advantage at Al Bayt, desperate motivation and Tunisia’s chronic inability to hold leads point to a narrow but deserved Qatar victory. We expect a low-scoring, cagey affair decided by a single moment of quality from Afif or a set-piece — exactly the pattern of Qatar’s last three home wins.

Our Prediction: Qatar 0-1 Tunisia

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