Poland and Lithuania kick off their 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying campaigns with a clash that carries significant weight for both sides. The hosts, Poland, are eager to reverse a dismal run of form and kickstart their journey toward a third consecutive World Cup appearance, while Lithuania face a daunting challenge as underdogs desperate to defy their historical struggles in qualifiers.
The match is scheduled for Friday, March 21, 2025, at 19:45 GMT+0, taking place at PGE Narodowy in Warsaw, with a capacity of 58,580. This is the opening fixture of Group G in the European World Championship Qualification, pitting two teams of contrasting pedigrees against each other. No referee details are confirmed yet, but the stage is set for Poland to leverage their home advantage in this crucial tournament opener against a Lithuania side reeling from a poor Nations League campaign.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
This section primes you for a deep dive into the Poland vs Lithuania matchup, offering key insights to inform your betting decisions. We’ll unpack recent performances and historical head-to-heads to spotlight trends and potential game-changers. For those seeking an edge, Poland vs Lithuania prediction today hinges on current form and past encounters. Expect a breakdown that cuts through the noise, focusing on actionable data. Let’s set the stage for what promises to be a revealing look at both teams’ trajectories.
Poland Results
Poland enter this qualifier desperate to shake off a torrid spell that’s seen them relegated from Nations League A and crash out of Euro 2024 without a win. Their home form, once a fortress, has crumbled, and head coach Michal Probierz faces pressure to deliver against a weaker opponent. The Eagles’ attacking talisman, Robert Lewandowski, remains a bright spot amid the gloom.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 18/11/24 | UNL | Poland vs Scotland | 1-2 | L |
| 15/11/24 | UNL | Portugal vs Poland | 5-1 | L |
| 15/10/24 | UNL | Poland vs Croatia | 3-3 | D |
| 12/10/24 | UNL | Poland vs Portugal | 1-3 | L |
| 08/09/24 | UNL | Croatia vs Poland | 1-0 | L |
Poland’s last five matches reveal a team leaking goals 13 conceded in their past four while failing to secure a win. Their defensive fragility, exposed by late concessions against Scotland, is a glaring issue. Offensively, they’ve scored in three of five, buoyed by Lewandowski’s class, but the lack of clean sheets (none in 11 games) undermines any momentum. Home struggles are stark: four losses in their last five at Stadion Narodowy. This trend suggests vulnerability, even against lesser foes.
Lithuania Results
Lithuania’s buildup to this qualifier has been a nightmare, with relegation from Nations League C2 capping a run of seven straight losses. Coach Edgaras Jankauskas is under fire as his side struggles to compete, though faint glimmers of resilience offer slim hope. Their away form, however, provides a sliver of optimism amid the chaos.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 18/11/24 | UNL | Kosovo vs Lithuania | 1-0 | L |
| 15/11/24 | UNL | Cyprus vs Lithuania | 2-1 | L |
| 15/10/24 | UNL | Lithuania vs Romania | 1-2 | L |
| 12/10/24 | UNL | Lithuania vs Kosovo | 1-2 | L |
| 09/09/24 | UNL | Romania vs Lithuania | 3-1 | L |
Lithuania’s recent results paint a bleak picture seven defeats on the spin, conceding at least one goal each time. Yet, they’ve scored in four of their last five, hinting at some attacking spark, led by Fedor Černych. Defensively, they’re porous, shipping 16 goals in their past six qualifiers. Their two away wins in five suggest sporadic fight, but the 1-0 loss to Kosovo, despite a man advantage, underscores chronic inefficiency. This is a team teetering on the edge.
Poland vs Lithuania Head-to-Head (Last 5 Matches)
Poland and Lithuania have a lopsided history, with the Poles dominating recent meetings. Lithuania’s lone win in this stretch came back in 2011, a rare blemish for Poland. These encounters set the tone for Friday’s clash.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 12/06/18 | FI | Poland vs Lithuania | 4-0 |
| 06/06/16 | FI | Poland vs Lithuania | 0-0 |
| 06/06/14 | FI | Poland vs Lithuania | 2-1 |
| 25/03/11 | FI | Lithuania vs Poland | 2-0 |
| 07/02/09 | FI | Lithuania vs Poland | 1-1 |
Poland hold a clear edge, winning three of the last five, including a 4-0 thrashing in 2018. Lithuania’s 2011 victory stands out as an anomaly, while draws in 2009 and 2016 show they can occasionally frustrate. The trend heavily favors the hosts.
Poland Possible Starting Lineup
Poland’s Michal Probierz is likely to lean on experience and firepower to kick off their campaign with a win. Here’s how the Eagles could line up:
- Bulka (GK), Cash (DF), Bednarek (DF), Kiwior (DF), Kaminski (DF), Szymanski (MF), Moder (MF), Slisz (MF), Zalewski (MF), Lewandowski (FW), Urbanski (FW)
Lithuania Possible Starting Lineup
Lithuania, under Edgaras Jankauskas, will aim to stay compact and counter where possible. This is their probable starting eleven:
- Gertmonas (GK), Utkus (DF), Girdvainis (DF), Milasius (DF), Sirvys (DF), Cernych (MF), Gineitis (MF), Remeikis (MF), Lasickas (MF), Kalinauskas (FW), Kucys (FW)
Key Factors to Watch
Poland vs Lithuania offers bettors a matchup rich with variables. Beyond the stats, intangibles could sway the outcome. Here’s what to zero in on as kickoff nears.
- Lewandowski’s Form: Poland’s record scorer (84 goals) netted for Barcelona recently and has three in his last two against Lithuania;
- Poland’s Defensive Woes: No clean sheets in 11 matches signal a persistent weakness;
- Lithuania’s Scoring Streak: Goals in four of five suggest they could nick one, despite their losses;
- Home Struggles: Poland’s four losses in five at home temper expectations of a romp;
- Černych Threat: Lithuania’s talisman has a knack for points-earning goals in qualifiers;
- Motivation Gap: Poland need a reboot post-relegation; Lithuania are battling historical futility;
- Weather Impact: March in Warsaw could bring cold or rain, potentially slowing play;
- Squad Depth: Poland’s probable back three (Cash, Bednarek, Kiwior) outclass Lithuania’s options.
Free Tips on Poland vs Lithuania
Digging into the stats and history of Poland vs Lithuania gives us a clearer picture of what to expect on March 21, 2025. This section offers practical, data-driven tips to sharpen your betting approach, pulling from past performances and team dynamics. Here’s how to cut through the noise and focus on what matters for this World Cup qualifier.
- Head-to-Head Edge: Poland have won three of their last five against Lithuania, including a 4-0 rout in 2018, signaling a consistent upper hand that could shape this encounter.
- Home vs. Away Contrast: Poland’s nine wins in their last 11 World Cup home qualifiers clash with Lithuania’s seven losses in eight away qualifiers venue could be the decider here.
- Player Impact: Robert Lewandowski’s scoring streak (three goals in his last two vs. Lithuania) makes him a focal point, while Lithuania’s Fedor Černych has a knack for clutch qualifiers.
- Recent Schedule Fatigue: Poland’s five games since September and Lithuania’s six since August hint at potential tiredness check for rotation or dips in intensity.
- Pitch and Weather Play: Warsaw’s March conditions could mean a slick PGE Narodowy surface; Poland’s possession game might thrive, while Lithuania’s counters could falter if it’s soggy.
These tips, rooted in the teams’ past and present, spotlight where the value lies for Poland vs Lithuania. Use them to refine your bets.
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Poland vs Lithuania Match Prediction
Poland vs Lithuania odds heavily favor the hosts, and for good reason they’re the superior side on paper, boasting a stronger squad and a desperate need to kickstart their World Cup quest. Lewandowski’s presence alone tilts the scales; his recent form and history against Lithuania (three goals in two) make him the game’s defining figure. Poland’s nine wins in their last 11 World Cup home qualifiers reinforce their pedigree, even if recent home losses raise doubts. Their attack should overwhelm Lithuania’s shaky backline, which has conceded 16 goals in six qualifiers.
Lithuania, however, aren’t entirely hopeless. Scoring in four of their last five shows some teeth, and five of their last six losses being by one goal hints at resilience. Černych could exploit Poland’s leaky defense 13 goals conceded in four games is a red flag. Yet, their seven-game losing streak and dismal away qualifier record (seven losses in eight, all without scoring) suggest they’ll struggle to keep pace. Poland’s urgency to end a five-game winless run (D1, L4) should seal it.
The likely outcome is a 2-1 Poland victory. They’ll dominate possession and chances, but Lithuania might sneak a goal to keep it close. Expect Poland to lean on Lewandowski and midfield creativity from Szymanski and Moder, while Lithuania’s counterattacking hopes rest on Černych.
Our Prediction: Poland 3-0 Lithuania
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Poland Win | 1.13 |
| Both Teams to Score | No | 1.42 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 1.53 |
This Poland vs Lithuania prediction 2025 aligns with historical trends and current dynamics. Place your bets with confidence, and for a seamless experience, you can place your bet on the Poland vs Lithuania match at bc.game. Their platform offers competitive odds and easy navigation perfect for capitalizing on this qualifier’s potential.
