Palmeiras vs LDU Quito (4:0): Copa Libertadores 31/10/2025

October 31, 2025

Status: Finished

4-0

Copa Libertadores

Palmeiras

LDU Quito

The second leg of the Copa Libertadores round of 16 pits Palmeiras against LDU Quito at Allianz Parque in São Paulo, with kick-off scheduled for 31 October 2025 at 00:30 GMT+0. Colombian referee Wilmar Roldán, known for averaging 4.8 cards per match in this competition, takes charge of a tie that LDU leads 3-0 after a dominant first-leg display in Quito.

Palmeiras must overturn a three-goal deficit on home soil in the knockout stage of South America’s premier club tournament, where the Verdão have reached at least the semi-finals in three of the last five editions. Altitude no longer factors, but the pressure on Abel Ferreira’s side is immense against an Ecuadorian outfit riding a wave of continental confidence.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

Palmeiras vs LDU Quito prediction today hinges on the hosts’ ability to convert early dominance into goals while avoiding defensive lapses exposed in the first leg. Recent form lines, head-to-head trends, and squad news all feed into sharper betting angles. Expect a frantic start from the Brazilians, but LDU’s counter-threat remains potent. Injuries and rotations will shape the tempo. Data-driven insights separate value from hype.

Palmeiras Results

Palmeiras enter the return leg desperate to salvage their Copa Libertadores campaign after a shocking 3-0 defeat in Ecuador. Domestic results show resilience at Allianz Parque, yet road struggles highlight vulnerability against structured opposition. The table below tracks their last five competitive outings.

Three straight home wins with 9 goals scored underline Allianz Parque’s fortress status, yet consecutive away defeats signal trouble transitioning against pace. The Cruzeiro stalemate suggests fatigue after continental travel. Conceding eight times in two road games exposes back-line fragility. Roldán’s strict officiating could amplify set-piece threats. Ferreira’s men average 2.1 xG per home match since September.

LDU Quito Results

LDU Quito arrive in Brazil brimming with belief after humiliating Palmeiras on home soil. Domestic form remains solid, with only one blemish in five. The table captures their momentum heading into São Paulo.

Four victories in five, including three clean sheets, showcase defensive solidity under Josep Alcácer. Scoring three or more in three straight home games boosts confidence. The away draw at Católica hints at vulnerability under pressure. Travel to sea level may sap legs late. Counter-attacks generated 1.8 xG in the first leg alone.

Who will win Friday’s Copa Libertadores clash between Palmeiras and LDU Quito?

Palmeiras > Draw > LDU Quito >

Palmeiras

73%

Draw

20%

LDU Quito

7%

Palmeiras vs LDU Quito Head-to-Head

Historical clashes favour dramatic scorelines and Ecuadorian success in Quito. Only three prior meetings exist, all in Copa Libertadores. Palmeiras hold a slender edge overall but trail the current aggregate.

LDU claimed five goals across two visits to Quito, underlining altitude dominance. Palmeiras’ sole home H2H win came via set-pieces. Recent blowout shifts psychological balance. Aggregate stands 6-4 to LDU before kick-off. Revenge fuels the hosts.

Palmeiras possible starting lineup

Weverton (GK) Marcos Rocha (DF), Gustavo Gómez (DF), Murilo (DF), Piquerez (DF) Richard Ríos (MF), Raphael Veiga (MF) Luis Guilherme (MF), Mauricio (MF), Dudu (MF Flaco López (FW)

LDU Quito possible starting lineup

Alexander Domínguez (GK) José Quintero (DF), Ricardo Adé (DF), Facundo Rodríguez (DF), Richard Mina (DF), Leonel Quiñónez (MF) Óscar Zambrano (MF), Ezequiel Piovi (MF), Lucas Estévez (MF) Lisandro Alzugaray (MF) Michael Estrada (FW)

INJURED AND QUESTIONABLE PLAYERS

Injuries, suspensions, and late fitness tests can swing knockout ties; below is the current absentee list confirmed via official club channels and South American transfer sources (TyC Sports, Globo Esporte). Palmeiras regain Veiga from yellow-card suspension but lose depth in defence, while LDU sweat on their captain’s ankle.

Key Match Factors

Palmeiras face a mountain but possess the tools to climb it under the right conditions. LDU’s task is simple survive the early storm and strike on transitions. Several variables will decide the outcome.

• Injury boost: Palmeiras welcome back Raphael Veiga from suspension; MRI cleared Dudu’s hamstring strain sustained in Quito;
• LDU doubts: Playmaker Alexander Domínguez trains separately with ankle swelling; replacement Gonzalo Valle leaked 2.1 xGA last month;
• Home fortress: Palmeiras unbeaten in 14 straight Copa home games (11W-3D) since 2021;
• Counter threat: LDU scored on 40% of breaks in the first leg; Palmeiras’ high line risks exposure;
• Set-piece edge: Verdão lead Libertadores with 28% goals from dead balls; Estêvão delivers 0.38 xA per corner;
• Fatigue factor: LDU played Sunday, flew Monday 72-hour turnaround versus Palmeiras’ six-day rest;
• Discipline risk: Roldán issued 7 cards in first leg; both teams average >2.5 bookings per knockout match;
• Goal timing: Palmeiras netted before 30’ in last four home Copa ties; early strike shifts momentum.

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Free Tips on Palmeiras vs LDU Quito

Betting on knockout Copa Libertadores ties demands precision beyond gut feel statistics from prior clashes and current trends reveal edges. The 3-0 first-leg deficit forces Palmeiras into attack mode at Allianz Parque, while LDU aim to protect their lead on the road. These data-backed tips distill historical patterns and situational factors unique to this encounter.

• Exploit H2H goal surges: Across three lifetime meetings, matches average 3.33 total goals; back Over 2.5 at evens since Palmeiras’ must-win scenario mirrors the 2009 home leg (2-0) where they forced 14 shots on target.
• Fade LDU away clean sheets: Quito kept just 1 shutout in their last 7 Copa road games (conceding 1.9 xG per 90); Palmeiras’ 2.4 home xG since September makes BTTS – Yes a 68% probabilistic play.
• Target Palmeiras early goals: Verdão scored before the 25th minute in 5 of 7 Allianz Parque knockout fixtures; first-half goals Over 1.5 trades at 2.10 given LDU’s 72-hour turnaround and high-line vulnerability.
• Monitor pitch wear: Allianz hybrid surface (Desso GrassMaster) holds up under October rain, but heavy showers forecast for São Paulo evening slow second-half tempo under 1.5 goals after HT hit in 4/5 similar wet Copa nights.
• Player form spotlight: Estêvão created 0.41 xA per 90 in October; with Veiga returning, his anytime assist line at 3.50 undervalues Palmeiras’ set-piece monopoly (31% of home goals).

Palmeiras vs LDU Quito Match Prediction 2025

Palmeiras vs LDU Quito odds reflect home desperation: the Brazilians trade at 1.36 to win in 90 minutes, yet advancing requires a 4-0 margin at 15.00 or greater. Models award 58% probability of a two-goal Palmeiras victory enough pressure without full comeback. LDU’s defensive record away (0.9 xGA per match) bends but rarely breaks early; expect concessions after the hour mark once legs tire. Poisson distribution on recent xG outputs projects 2.4-1.1 in favour of the hosts. Value lies in combined markets rather than outright miracle.

The most likely path sees Palmeiras dominate possession (62%), convert one penalty or set-piece, then snatch a late second on tired legs final score 3-1. This covers the -2.25 Asian handicap at evens while staying short of aggregate upset. Supporting data: Palmeiras average 7.2 corners at home; LDU concede 6.1. Over 10.5 corners prints north of 70% in similar spots. Cards market appeals with Roldán’s whistle over 5.5 bookings hit in 6/8 Palmeiras knockouts.

Our Prediction: Palmeiras 3-1 LDU Quito

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