Palestine vs Saudi Arabia Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips – FIFA Arab Cup 11/12/2025

FIFA Arab Cup

Palestine vs Saudi Arabia

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 – 17:30

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2.1

Home

3.5

Draw

1.9

Away

The quarter-final clash between Palestine and Saudi Arabia will take place on 11 December 2025 at the iconic Lusail Iconic Stadium in Lusail, Qatar. Kick-off is scheduled for 17:30 GMT+0. This knockout match in the FIFA Arab Cup 2025 promises high tension, as both teams have shown resilience in the group stage. The referee appointment is not yet officially confirmed, but Qatari official Abdulrahman Al-Jassim is among the shortlisted candidates for this stage.

Palestine topped Group A with an unbeaten record, while Saudi Arabia finished second in Group B behind Morocco. A single-goal margin or penalties could decide who advances to the semi-finals on this neutral but emotionally charged venue.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

Our Palestine vs Saudi Arabia prediction today leans toward a low-scoring affair with a high probability of extra time or penalties. Recent trends show both teams struggling to convert dominance into goals against organized defences, and their head-to-head history is dominated by draws and under 2.5 goals. Expect a tactical battle where set-pieces and individual moments will be decisive.

Palestine Results

Palestine enter the knockout stage unbeaten in regular time during the Arab Cup group phase. Their defensive organisation has been the key weapon, conceding just two goals in three matches. Here are their last five competitive results:

Palestine have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches and scored more than one goal only once. Their wins came against weaker opposition, but the ability to grind out results away from home (Qatar and Syria) stands out. The 0-0 draw with Syria showed they can completely neutralise physically strong midfields.

Saudi Arabia Results

The Green Falcons recovered from an opening-day loss to Morocco by comfortably beating Oman and Comoros. Roberto Mancini’s side has rotated heavily but maintained attacking threat through quick transitions. Last five results:

Saudi Arabia score exactly 2.0 goals per game on average in the tournament but faced only one top-level defence (Morocco). They looked vulnerable to quick counter-attacks in November friendlies against African sides. The 1-0 loss to Morocco exposed difficulties when possession is surrendered.

Who will win Thursday’s FIFA Arab Cup clash between Palestine and Saudi Arabia?

Palestine > Draw > Saudi Arabia >

Palestine

34%

Draw

30%

Saudi Arabia

36%

Palestine vs Saudi Arabia Head-to-Head (Last 5)

Four of the last five H2H ended with under 2.5 goals; three were goalless draws. The only exception was Saudi Arabia’s 5-0 win in Riyadh under completely different conditions and squad composition.

Palestine vs Saudi Arabia Predicted Starting Lineups – FIFA Arab Cup Quarter-Final

Official lineups will be confirmed roughly 60-70 minutes before kick-off, but based on training reports, press conferences and the formations used throughout the tournament, here are the most probable starting XIs for both teams.

Palestine possible starting lineup

Hamadeh (GK) – Battat (DF), Termanini (DF), Saleh (DF), Nabhan (DF) – Hamdan (MF), Mahajna (MF), Seyam (MF), Nabris (MF) – Qunbar (FW), Dabbagh (FW)

Saudi Arabia possible starting lineup

Sanbi (GK) – Majrashi (DF), Al-Sulaiman (DF), Al-Amri (DF), Boushal (DF) – Ahmad (MF), Oboud (MF) – Juwayr (MF), Hawsawi (FW), Shamat (FW) – Shefri (FW)

Key Match Facts to Watch

• Palestine have no fresh injury concerns; key centre-back Mohammed Saleh is fully fit after a minor knock against Tunisia;
• Saudi Arabia will miss suspended midfielder Nasser Al-Dawsari (two yellows) and injured left-back Saud Abdulhamid (hamstring);
• Palestine have not conceded in the first half in their last six competitive matches;
• Saudi Arabia failed to score in the first half in four of their last six games against Asian opposition;
• Both teams rank in the bottom-4 of the tournament for big chances created per 90 minutes;
• Palestine’s main threat comes from set-pieces: 44 % of their tournament goals originated from dead-ball situations;
• Saudi Arabia’s expected goals (xG) drops from 2.1 to 1.1 when playing without Abdulhamid on the left;
• Weather forecast in Lusail: 23 °C, light wind – ideal conditions, no impact on total goals.

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Free Tips on Palestine vs Saudi Arabia

Before placing any bet on this Arab Cup quarter-final, smart punters always dig deeper than just the basic odds. The three previous sections already covered injuries, head-to-head and current form – here are five additional data-driven angles that are often overlooked but have repeatedly proven profitable in similar knockout games involving these two teams.

• First-half goals expectancy is extremely low In the last eight competitive matches combined, Palestine and Saudi Arabia produced only one first-half goal in total when facing each other or teams with similar defensive setups. Both coaches prioritize not conceding early in knockout ties – back Under 0.5 first-half goals as a near-bank.
• Set-piece threat belongs almost entirely to Palestine 57 % of Palestine’s goals since 2024 came from dead-ball situations (corners + free-kicks), while Saudi Arabia have conceded from set-pieces in four of their last six matches when Saud Abdulhamid was missing on the left side (he is injured for this game). Corners over or Palestine to score from a set-piece carries huge value.
• Saudi Arabia’s xG collapses without possession dominance When the Green Falcons have less than 52 % possession this season, their xG per game drops from 1.98 to 0.91. Palestine’s compact 5-4-1 forced Syria, Tunisia and Qatar all below 48 % possession – expect Saudi Arabia to struggle creating big chances again.
• Referee tolerance for physical duels The most likely referee pool for this match (Al-Jassim, Mohammed Abdulla or Al-Hoish) averages only 3.9 cards per game in the tournament so far and has not shown a single red in knockout stages of previous Arab Cups. Forget “over cards” – the value is heavily on Under 4.5 or even Under 3.5 cards.
• Fatigue factor after congested December schedule Saudi Arabia played three matches in eight days with long travel between venues; their pressing intensity dropped 28 % in the second half against Morocco. Palestine had one extra rest day and shorter trips. Late goals (75-90 min) conceded by Saudi Arabia in recent months make “Palestine +0.5 full-time” or “Draw/Palestine double chance” even safer.

Palestine vs Saudi Arabia Match Prediction 2025

This quarter-final has all the ingredients of a cagey, low-scoring knockout tie. Palestine’s ultra-compact 5-4-1 under Makram Daboub frustrates higher-ranked teams, while Saudi Arabia have looked blunt without their first-choice full-backs and suspended midfielder. Current Palestine vs Saudi Arabia odds heavily favour the Green Falcons at around 1.65 for the win, but the value clearly lies in the unders and draw-no-bet market on Palestine.

Our models give only a 38 % chance for Saudi Arabia to win in 90 minutes (implied probability at 1.65 is 60 %), creating significant positive expected value on Palestine +0.5 Asian Handicap. The most likely outcome is a 0-0 or 1-1 draw, with penalties highly probable.

Our Prediction: Palestine 0-1 Saudi Arabia

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