Pafos vs AEK Larnaca prediction 2025 crowns the Cypriot Super Cup, rewarding league kings with cup holders in a high-stakes neutral-site duel. Pafos hold second spot in the First Division on 16 points from five wins, one draw, and two losses, while AEK Larnaca linger sixth with 10 points from three wins, one draw, and four losses. This single-eliminator tests Pafos’ title defense against AEK’s knockout pedigree, with European spots on the line.
The action ignites at GSP Stadium in Nicosia, a 22,859-seat fortress that hosts cup finals with electric tension. Kickoff hits 17:00 GMT+0 on Thursday, October 30, 2025, marking the Cyprus Super Cup’s decisive final. Referee Kostas Fellas, dishing 4.5 cards per game in top-tier ties, oversees proceedings, often penalizing overzealous tackles in derbies. Neutral turf levels the field, but Pafos’ recent league edge over AEK adds intrigue.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca match prediction unpacks form slumps and rivalry rifts to pinpoint profitable plays. Punters benefit from blending latest results with historical grudges for informed wagers. Pafos vs AEK Larnaca betting tips spotlight overs, as both leak goals in big games. Pafos vs AEK Larnaca prediction today anticipates fireworks where momentum clashes with experience. Incoming sections unpack these dynamics for targeted selections.
Pafos Results
Pafos blend European bruises with domestic bite, chasing a first Super Cup after league glory last term. Their slate mixes shutouts with heavy concessions, reflecting bold tactics under Shpilevsky. Recent swings demand focus for this trophy tilt.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 27/10/2025 | Cypriot First Division | Omonia vs Pafos | 2-1 | L |
| 21/10/2025 | UEFA Champions League | Kairat Almaty vs Pafos | 0-0 | D |
| 17/10/2025 | Cypriot First Division | Pafos vs Achnas | 4-0 | W |
| 05/10/2025 | Cypriot First Division | AEK Larnaca vs Pafos | 2-4 | W |
| 30/09/2025 | UEFA Champions League | Pafos vs Bayern Munich | 1-5 | L |
Two triumphs in five showcase Pafos’ attacking pulse, averaging 2.0 goals scored in wins. That Bayern thrashing highlighted backline fragility, conceding 5 from 18 shots faced. Draws like against Kairat underline grit abroad, vital in neutrals. Home romps over Achnas signal set-piece strength at 25 percent conversion. This pattern equips them to pounce, though lapses risk exposure.
AEK Larnaca Results
AEK Larnaca fuse Conference League highs with league parity, eyeing Super Cup redemption after cup success. Three victories fuel their 1.8 goals per game clip, but draws expose finishing woes. Their run balances flair with frustration, priming for finals pressure.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 27/10/2025 | Cypriot First Division | AEK Larnaca vs APOEL | 1-1 | D |
| 23/10/2025 | UEFA Conference League | Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca | 0-1 | W |
| 18/10/2025 | Cypriot First Division | Paralimni vs AEK Larnaca | 0-2 | W |
| 05/10/2025 | Cypriot First Division | AEK Larnaca vs Pafos | 2-4 | L |
| 02/10/2025 | UEFA Conference League | AEK Larnaca vs AZ Alkmaar | 4-0 | W |
AEK Larnaca’s three clean-sheet wins highlight defensive resolve, holding foes to 0.6 xGA in triumphs. That Pafos home reversal stung, leaking four after leading, via transitional gaps. Draws against APOEL reflect midfield control at 58 percent possession, but poor conversion caps output. European romps like over AZ boost confidence, with Bajic netting four. This form suits counters, yet vulnerabilities linger.
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca Head-to-Head
Rivalries between Pafos and AEK Larnaca brew goals and grudges, with 32 total meetings seeing AEK claim 16 triumphs to Pafos’ 9 and 7 stalemates. These scraps average 2.3 goals, often exploding post-half amid fatigue. Pafos’ recent surge flips the script on AEK’s historical hold.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 05/10/2025 | Cypriot First Division | AEK Larnaca vs Pafos | 2-4 |
| 24/05/2025 | Cypriot Cup | AEK Larnaca vs Pafos | 1-0 (AET) |
| 18/05/2025 | Cypriot First Division | Pafos vs AEK Larnaca | 2-0 |
| 13/04/2025 | Cypriot First Division | AEK Larnaca vs Pafos | 2-2 |
| 22/12/2024 | Cypriot First Division | Pafos vs AEK Larnaca | 0-1 |
Pafos’ back-to-back league blows, including that 4-2 rally, signal growing menace, outscoring AEK 6-3 in 2025 tilts. Draws like April’s parity show stalemate potential in tight finishes. AEK’s cup extra-time edge adds drama, but over 2.5 hits 40 percent lately. Overall, balance favors chaos, with no blowouts.
Predicted Starting Lineups for Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
Selections factor in latest training hints, injury returns, and tactical setups for the Super Cup neutral showdown. Pafos deploy width to exploit AEK’s patched defense, while AEK bank on midfield steel to spring counters.
Pafos
Gorter (GK), Bruno (DF), Correia (DF), Goldar (DF), Luckassen (DF), Dragomir (MF), Quina (MF), Pepe (MF), Sema (MF), Dimata (FW), Sunjic (FW)
AEK Larnaca
Alomerovic (GK), Ekpolo (DF), Izquierdo (DF), Roberge (DF), Saborit (DF), Ledes (MF), Rohden (MF), Suarez (MF), Rubio (FW), Milicevic (FW), Bajic (FW)
Key Factors to Watch
Elements from squad gaps to streak shifts define this Super Cup showdown, where silverware hinges on execution. Pafos’ continental scars meet AEK’s European sparks, laced with absences and ambitions. These notes guide wagers in a fixture ripe for twists.
- Pafos chase a third win in four finals, unbeaten since 2023;
- AEK Larnaca netted in seven straight, with Bajic on four goals;
- Hosts average 1.6 xG neutrally, pressing high at 11.2 PPDA;
- Visitors’ low block concedes 1.4 xGA, vulnerable to switches;
- Jairo leads Pafos with five assists, thriving on overlaps;
- AEK’s Garcia, Cabrera, Komar out injured, thinning defense;
- No fresh scandals, but AEK’s board unrest echoes from summer;
- Pafos’ two-win run post-losses hits 70 percent;
- AEK Larnaca’s away clean sheets in three of five;
- Pedrao doubtful for Pafos, straining center-back depth.
Free Tips on Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
These suggestions pull from head-to-head trends and squad metrics to expose betting edges in the Super Cup final. They zero in on scoring rhythms and surface specifics for the Nicosia neutral clash. Leverage them to spot lines that undervalue patterns from prior derbies.
- Pafos net 60 percent of goals post-60th minute in five of six recent H2H, backing second-half overs against AEK’s fading press;
- AEK Larnaca’s xG surges to 1.9 on natural grass like GSP’s well-kept turf, favoring their 4-0 AZ romp style here;
- Referee Fellas flags penalties in 18 percent of top-division games, lifting spot-kick bets with Bajic’s 75 percent conversion;
- October highs around 27C in Nicosia slow tempo in 70 percent of afternoon finals, suiting under 3.5 totals;
- AEK concede 1.4 xGA per away start this term, ideal for Pafos shots over 11.5 per their 1.6 average in wins.
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Pafos vs AEK Larnaca Match Prediction
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca odds price the league champs at 2.10, but our Pafos vs AEK Larnaca prediction today backs a 2-1 Pafos win, riding recent head-to-head dominance and AEK’s injury woes. Pafos’ 4-2 league rout exposed AEK’s backline, conceding 2.1 xGA amid transitions, while Jairo’s crosses feed Onni Valakari’s five goals. AEK’s Bajic threatens with four strikes, yet missing Garcia and Cabrera drops their clean-sheet rate to 20 percent without full depth. Neutral GSP suits Pafos’ 1.6 xG average in cups, where they convert 18 percent from sets, outpacing AEK’s 12 percent. That May cup loss via extra time fuels revenge, but AEK’s draw in 40 percent of derbies hints at fightback. Pedrao’s hamstring doubt forces tweaks, but Luckassen’s 2.3 clearances per game anchors. European fatigue hits both, with Pafos logging 800 miles last week versus AEK’s 1,200, tilting legs. Over 2.5 lands in 60 percent of their 2025 clashes, valuing BTTS at 1.90 in Pafos vs AEK Larnaca odds. Fellas’ 4.5 cards average suits props over 4.0. Pafos’ 65 percent win rate as favorites positions them for glory, capping a season of ascent against fading rivals.
Our Prediction: Pafos 2-1 AEK Larnaca
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Pafos Win | 2.24 |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | 1.90 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.65 |
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