Get ready for a clay-court showdown that’s got everyone buzzing. Lorenzo Musetti takes on Carlos Alcaraz in the French Open semi-finals, and it’s a clash of flair, power, and grit you won’t want to miss.
The match kicks off at 12:30 GMT+0 on June 6, 2025, at Court Philippe-Chatrier in Paris, the heart of Roland Garros. This is the French Open Men’s Singles semi-final, with no referee details available yet, but the stage is set for a battle under the Parisian lights.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
Let’s dive into the Musetti vs Alcaraz prediction today. Both players have been carving their paths through the clay season, with recent matches showing their strengths and quirks. You’ll want to know how Musetti’s silky one-handed backhand holds up against Alcaraz’s relentless baseline game. Their head-to-head history adds spice, as past encounters reveal patterns that could tip the scales. Stick with me as we unpack their form and clashes to see who’s got the edge.
Lorenzo Musetti Results
Musetti has been a clay-court artist this season, painting the lines with precision. His journey to the French Open semi-finals shows a player hitting career highs. Let’s check his last five matches to see what’s cooking.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 03/06/2025 | French Open | Musetti vs Tiafoe | 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 6-2 | W |
| 01/06/2025 | French Open | Musetti vs Rune | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 | W |
| 30/05/2025 | French Open | Musetti vs Navone | 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 | W |
| 16/05/2025 | Italian Open | Alcaraz vs Musetti | 6-3, 7-6(4) | L |
| 14/05/2025 | Italian Open | Musetti vs Zverev | 7-6(1), 6-4 | W |
Musetti’s 4-1 record here screams confidence, especially his clay dominance. Beating Tiafoe and Rune in four sets shows he can grind through tough spots. His loss to Alcaraz in Rome stings, but he took a set, hinting at competitiveness. The Italian’s break point conversion (nearly 40%) is a weapon on clay. He’s playing with belief, fueled by personal milestones like expecting his second child.
Carlos Alcaraz Results
Alcaraz is a clay-court beast, defending his French Open title with swagger. His recent matches blend power and finesse, making him a tough out. Here’s how his last five outings stack up.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 03/06/2025 | French Open | Alcaraz vs Paul | 6-0, 6-1, 6-4 | W |
| 01/06/2025 | French Open | Alcaraz vs Dzumhur | 6-3, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 | W |
| 30/05/2025 | French Open | Alcaraz vs Marozsan | 7-5, 6-4, 6-3 | W |
| 16/05/2025 | Italian Open | Alcaraz vs Musetti | 6-3, 7-6(4) | W |
| 14/05/2025 | Italian Open | Alcaraz vs Khachanov | 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 | W |
Alcaraz is 5-0 in these matches, a juggernaut on clay. His demolition of Paul (6-0, 6-1, 6-4) shows he’s peaking at the right time. The Rome win over Musetti proves he’s got the Italian’s number. Alcaraz’s 82% clay win rate this season is no fluke. He’s serving big (48/55 service points won vs. Paul) and thriving in high-stakes moments.
Musetti vs Alcaraz Head-to-Head (Last 5 Matches)
Musetti and Alcaraz have a spicy rivalry, with clay courts amplifying their battles. Their past meetings give us a roadmap for what’s coming. Here are their last five clashes.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 16/05/2025 | Italian Open | Alcaraz vs Musetti | 6-3, 7-6(4) |
| 13/04/2025 | Monte Carlo Masters | Alcaraz vs Musetti | 3-6, 6-1, 6-0 |
| 09/06/2023 | French Open | Alcaraz vs Musetti | 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 23/03/2024 | Miami Open | Alcaraz vs Musetti | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 17/04/2023 | Barcelona Open | Alcaraz vs Musetti | 6-2, 6-4 |
Alcaraz dominates 5-0 in these matches, a tough pill for Musetti. The Monte Carlo final saw Musetti snag a set, but an injury derailed him. Rome was closer, with a tiebreak showing Musetti’s fight. Alcaraz’s power and adaptability shine through, especially on clay.
Key Factors to Watch
To nail the Musetti vs Alcaraz match prediction, we need to zoom in on what’ll sway this semi-final. Both players bring unique strengths, but small details could decide the winner. Here’s what to keep an eye on.
- Musetti’s clay form: 19-3 record this season shows he’s a clay maestro;
- Alcaraz’s serve: 65.9% first-serve rate, but second-serve points won (42.81%) lag behind Musetti’s 43.88%;
- Injury concerns: Alcaraz recovered from a Barcelona adductor sprain, while Musetti limped in Monte Carlo;
- Musetti’s break point conversion: 36.42% vs. Alcaraz’s 31.07%, a potential game-changer;
- Alcaraz’s clay dominance: 13-1 record in 2025, including titles in Monte Carlo and Rome;
- Mental edge: Musetti’s new fatherhood glow vs. Alcaraz’s Grand Slam pressure;
- Crowd impact: Neutral Paris crowd vs. hostile Rome fans Musetti fed off;
- Recent success: Alcaraz’s 6-0, 6-1, 6-4 thrashing of Paul signals peak form.
Free Tips on Musetti vs Alcaraz
Want to make smarter bets on the Musetti vs Alcaraz semi-final at the French Open 2025? This list breaks down key insights from past matches and player stats to guide your wagers. Here are five practical tips to boost your betting game for this clay-court clash.
- Check head-to-head trends: Alcaraz leads Musetti 5-1, winning both 2025 clay matches, but Musetti often pushes sets close, like in Rome’s tiebreak; look for value in betting on competitive sets.
- Focus on recent match intensity: Alcaraz’s straight-set rout of Paul shows he’s peaking, while Musetti’s four-set grind over Tiafoe suggests stamina; consider Alcaraz’s fresher legs for a quicker win.
- Evaluate surface-specific stats: Musetti’s 26.2% break percentage on clay is elite, but Alcaraz’s 80% hold rate is rock-solid; bet on Musetti breaking early if he’s to stay in the match.
- Account for night match conditions: Slower courts at 10:30 PM AEST favor Musetti’s defensive style, as he noted post-Tiafoe; explore bets on longer rallies or over total games.
- Weigh player motivation: Alcaraz, defending his title, is locked in for a final spot, while Musetti’s personal milestone as a father fuels his drive; lean toward Alcaraz for clutch moments but don’t count out Musetti’s heart.
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Musetti vs Alcaraz Prediction 2025
For the Musetti vs Alcaraz prediction 2025, I’m leaning toward Alcaraz to clinch this semi-final in four sets. His 5-1 head-to-head lead, including two clay wins this season, makes him the favorite. The Musetti vs Alcaraz odds reflect this, with Alcaraz at $1.14 and Musetti at $5.50, per TAB. Alcaraz’s 81% win probability from 10,000 simulations underscores his edge. His recent form, like the Paul beatdown, shows he’s locked in, with a serve that’s tough to crack (48/55 points won). Musetti’s no slouch, his 19-3 clay record and 36.42% break point conversion keep him dangerous. That one-handed backhand can carve angles to frustrate Alcaraz, and he took a set in Monte Carlo. But Musetti’s injury history and Alcaraz’s ability to flip the switch in big moments tilt the scales. The Spaniard’s adaptability, like a chameleon on clay, and his 82% clay win rate this year make him a safer bet. Expect Musetti to push hard, maybe steal a set, but Alcaraz’s firepower should seal it.
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Alcaraz Win | 1.15 |
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