Montenegro host Croatia at Podgorica City Stadium on November 17, 2025, with kick-off scheduled for 19:45 GMT+0. This final Group L match in UEFA qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be officiated by Turkish referee Halil Umut Meler, known for averaging 4.55 yellow cards per game across 329 career matches.
The 17,000-capacity venue in Podgorica could see a lively but one-sided atmosphere as Croatia have already sealed top spot and direct qualification with an unbeaten campaign (W6 D1), while Montenegro sit fourth and cannot progress further. Expect mild November weather around 12-15°C with possible light rain – conditions that rarely impact play on this pitch. Montenegro vs Croatia prediction 2025 points firmly towards an away win in a low-drama finale.
BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS
Croatia arrive as overwhelming favourites having dominated the group, conceding just twice in seven games while scoring 23 times. Montenegro vs Croatia match prediction today leans heavily towards a comfortable Croatian victory with rotation expected on both sides.
The reverse fixture ended 4-0 to Croatia in September, underlining the quality gap. Montenegro have managed only one clean sheet in their last nine home games across all competitions. Croatia’s away defensive record in this campaign remains perfect – zero goals conceded in three road fixtures. Montenegro vs Croatia betting tips favour low-scoring Croatian dominance rather than a goal fest.
Montenegro Results
Montenegro’s campaign has been inconsistent, with recent home form offering their only bright spots. They ended a four-game scoreless losing streak with a late win over Gibraltar, but defensive fragility remains evident against stronger opposition.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 14.11.2025 | WCQ | Gibraltar vs Montenegro | 1-2 | W |
| 13.10.2025 | Friendly | Montenegro vs Liechtenstein | 2-1 | W |
| 09.10.2025 | WCQ | Faroe Islands vs Montenegro | 4-0 | L |
| 08.09.2025 | WCQ | Croatia vs Montenegro | 4-0 | L |
| 05.11.2025 | WCQ | Montenegro vs Czech Republic | 0-2 | L |
Montenegro secured back-to-back wins against the group’s weakest sides but collapsed against top opposition. They failed to score in three consecutive defeats before the Gibraltar result. Home games remain their stronghold – three wins in the last four competitive fixtures at Podgorica. Only one of their last six competitive matches saw both teams score. Nikola Krstović continues to deliver pre-interval goals when chances arise.
Croatia Results
Croatia sealed qualification with a 3-1 comeback win over Faroe Islands, maintaining their status as the only side yet to concede on the road in Group L. Depth and experience have overwhelmed every opponent bar a 0-0 draw in Czech Republic.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 14.11.2025 | WCQ | Croatia vs Faroe Islands | 3-1 | W |
| 12.10.2025 | WCQ | Croatia vs Gibraltar | 3-0 | W |
| 09.10.2025 | WCQ | Czech Republic vs Croatia | 0-0 | D |
| 08.09.2025 | WCQ | Croatia vs Montenegro | 4-0 | W |
| 05.09.2025 | WCQ | Faroe Islands vs Croatia | 0-1 | W |
Croatia have won six of seven qualifiers, scoring 3+ goals in five of them. Their away record reads W2 D1 with zero goals conceded and eight scored. Four of their last five road games across all competitions finished under 2.5 goals. Petar Musa is in scorching form with seven goals in his last nine appearances for club and country. Defensive solidity remains the foundation – just two goals conceded all campaign.
Head-to-Head – Montenegro vs Croatia
These Balkan neighbours have met only once at senior level since Montenegro’s independence, with Croatia dominating proceedings.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 08.09.2025 | WCQ | Croatia vs Montenegro | 4-0 |
No historical depth exists beyond the September thrashing. Croatia controlled 68% possession and generated 2.8 xG while restricting Montenegro to 0.2 xG. The 4-0 scoreline perfectly reflected the gulf in class and organisation.
Montenegro predicted lineup
Nikolić (GK) — Marušić, Tuci, Šipčić, Perović (DF) — Janković, A. Adžić, Bulatović, Vukotić (MF) — Osmajić, Krstović (FW)
Croatia predicted lineup
Livaković (GK) — Vušković, Šutalo, Gvardiol, Perišić (DF) — Modrić, Marco Pašalić, Sučić (MF) — Mario Pašalić, Kramarić, Musa (FW)
Key Factors and Match Insights
Both managers are expected to rotate heavily with qualification settled and pride the only remaining prize.
- Croatia have conceded only twice in seven qualifiers (both at home) and remain unbeaten on the road (W5 D2 in last seven WCQ away games);
- Montenegro kept just one clean sheet in their last nine home matches across all competitions;
- Adam Marušić remains sidelined for Montenegro; Croatia without Josip Stanišić and long-term absentee Mateo Kovačić;
- Nikola Krstović has scored each of his last five goals for club/country before half-time;
- Petar Musa has seven goals in nine recent appearances, five arriving in the first half;
- Referee Halil Umut Meler averages 4.55 cards per game – expect 4+ bookings;
- Croatia scored 3+ goals in five of seven group games; four of their last five away matches stayed under 2.5;
- Mild Podgorica conditions (12-15°C, possible light rain) favour Croatia’s technical style over physical battles.
Free Tips on Montenegro vs Croatia
Croatia have already qualified while Montenegro cannot advance, turning this into a dead-rubber with rotation risks on both sides. Historical data and current trends still highlight clear edges for the visitors. These four targeted tips draw directly from head-to-head records, form streaks and situational stats to sharpen your betting edge.
- Exploit Croatia’s road clean-sheet monopoly: They have conceded zero goals in three away qualifiers this cycle (W2 D1, 8 GF) and kept shutouts in five of their last seven WCQ road trips overall – back Croatia to Win to Nil as the safest anchor.
- Fade Montenegro’s post-loss rebound illusion: Their recent home wins came only against Liechtenstein and Gibraltar; against any side ranked inside FIFA’s top-100 they are W0 L4 in the last 18 months with 0.4 xG per game – avoid any home-win or BTTS temptation.
- Target first-half efficiency from in-form finishers: Nikola Krstović (Montenegro) and Petar Musa (Croatia) have combined for ten goals before the break in their last fourteen club/country starts – Over 0.5 First-Half Goals at evens or better carries strong value.
- Bank on referee Meler’s card average in low-stakes Balkan derbies: The Turkish official dishes 4.55 yellows per game and has shown 5+ cards in six of his last eight matches involving sides with nothing to play for – Over 3.5 Cards is a lock given the expected physical but meaningless tussle.
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Montenegro vs Croatia Match Prediction and Odds
Croatia’s superior squad depth, defensive record and motivation to finish unbeaten make them heavy favourites despite expected rotation. Montenegro can frustrate early on home soil but lack the firepower to trouble Livaković seriously. Model (Poisson + Elo) gives Croatia 62% win probability, 22% draw, 16% Montenegro. Expected goals: 0.78–2.14.
Montenegro vs Croatia odds currently price the away win around 1.31 (value +4%), with Croatia -1 Asian Handicap at 1.85 offering the best edge. Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 also holds strong value given Croatia’s controlled away performances and Montenegro’s recent low-scoring home games.
Our Prediction: Montenegro 0-2 Croatia
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Croatia to Win | 1.36 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.14 |
| Both Teams to Score | No | 1.75 |
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