Melbourne Victory welcome Wellington Phoenix to AAMI Park in Melbourne for this A-League regular season clash. The match kicks off at 08:00 GMT+0 on Monday, December 29, 2025, with Australian referee Sean Evans in charge.
This Round 10 fixture sees two mid-table sides level on points battling for momentum heading into the new year. AAMI Park, with its 30,050 capacity, typically provides a strong home advantage for Victory, especially in evening games under lights. Both teams are coming off mixed results in a congested December schedule, making this encounter crucial for climbing the standings in the competitive Australian top flight.
BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS
As we dive deeper into this A-League encounter, recent performances and historical trends offer valuable clues for bettors. Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix prediction today points to a tightly contested affair, with home advantage potentially tipping the scales.
Victory have shown resilience in their last two outings, while Phoenix’s away form remains unpredictable. Head-to-head clashes often produce goals, but recent meetings have been cagey. Expect tactical discipline from both sides, with set pieces and counter-attacks likely to decide the outcome. Value lies in markets reflecting a low-scoring, competitive battle rather than outright dominance.
Melbourne Victory Results
Melbourne Victory have displayed improved solidity in recent weeks, particularly after a tough start to the season. They secured back-to-back wins before a draw, boosting confidence ahead of this home fixture. Playing at AAMI Park has been a positive factor, with tighter defensive displays.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 20.12.25 | AL | Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory | 0-1 | W |
| 13.12.25 | AL | Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United | 2-1 | W |
| 05.12.25 | AL | Macarthur FC vs Melbourne Victory | 0-0 | D |
| 28.11.25 | AL | Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory | 1-0 | L |
| 22.11.25 | AL | Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory | 3-0 | L |
Victory have picked up seven points from their last three games, conceding just once in the process. The derby win over City highlighted their ability to grind out results away, while the home victory against Adelaide showed attacking threat from set pieces. However, earlier heavy defeats exposed vulnerabilities against top sides, and they remain winless in three of their last five overall when including those losses.
Wellington Phoenix Results
Wellington Phoenix have experienced an up-and-down campaign, with alternating wins and losses defining their form. They sit just above Victory in the table but have struggled for consistency, especially on the road. Defensive lapses have cost them points in recent away fixtures.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 21.12.25 | AL | Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners | 3-1 | W |
| 14.12.25 | AL | Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets | 1-3 | L |
| 06.12.25 | AL | Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix | 3-1 | L |
| 29.11.25 | AL | Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United | 2-1 | W |
| 22.11.25 | AL | Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC | 0-1 | L |
Phoenix alternate between strong home performances and vulnerable away displays, taking just three points from their last three road games. The recent home win over Mariners showed attacking flair, but consecutive away defeats highlighted issues containing pressure. They have scored in four of their last five but conceded multiple goals in losses.
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head (Last 5 Matches)
This fixture has historically favored Melbourne Victory, who hold a strong record overall with 28 wins from 55 meetings. Recent encounters have been competitive, with Victory unbeaten in three of the last five, including playoff ties.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 12.04.25 | AL | Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory | 2-3 |
| 14.02.25 | AL | Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix | 1-0 |
| 24.11.24 | AL | Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory | 1-0 |
| 18.05.24 | AL | Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory | 1-2 |
| 12.05.24 | AL | Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix | 0-0 |
Victory have won three of the last five head-to-heads, often edging tight games late on. Four of these matches saw under 2.5 goals, with clean sheets common for the home side in Melbourne. Phoenix’s sole win in this run came at home, underscoring Victory’s dominance at AAMI Park.
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Predicted Starting Lineups
Lineups are subject to late changes based on final team news, injuries, and tactical decisions. The following are the most likely starting XIs for this A-League encounter, based on recent performances, available squad updates, and typical formations used by both managers. Official confirmation usually comes about an hour before kick-off.
Melbourne Victory possible starting lineup
Duncan (GK); Davidson (DF), Roderick Miranda (DF), Esposito (DF), Inserra (DF); Valadon (MF), D’Arrigo (MF); Clarismario (MF), Mata (FW), Velupillay (FW); Reec (FW)
Wellington Phoenix possible starting lineup
McCarron (GK); Hughes (DF), James (DF), Kelly-Heald (DF); Sheridan (DF), Nagasawa (MF), Rufer (MF), Najjarine (MF); Armiento (MF), Eze (FW); Piper (FW)
Key Factors and Team News
Both squads are navigating a busy festive period, with fatigue and injuries playing a role. Melbourne Victory benefit from home comfort, while Wellington Phoenix face a tough away assignment. Several elements could influence the result.
- Melbourne Victory boosted by consecutive wins, including a clean-sheet derby triumph;
- Wellington Phoenix volatile, with four of last five games featuring over 2.5 goals;
- Victory missing key defenders like Brendan Hamill (long-term) and others doubtful;
- Phoenix relatively healthy but lacking depth in attack due to earlier season-ending injuries;
- Home advantage significant: Victory stronger defensively at AAMI Park;
- Recent H2H trend towards low-scoring affairs, especially in Melbourne;
- Motivation high for both mid-table sides chasing playoff spots;
- Referee Sean Evans known for balanced card distribution in A-League games;
- Weather forecast mild for late December in Melbourne, favoring open play.
Free Tips on Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix
Before placing bets on this A-League clash at AAMI Park, consider these practical tips drawn from historical data, team patterns, and external influences. These insights focus on broader betting principles applied specifically to the matchup between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix, helping identify potential value beyond obvious form lines.
- Head-to-Head Productivity: Recent encounters between these sides have trended low-scoring, with four of the last five finishing under 2.5 goals and frequent clean sheets for the home team in Melbourne – favor unders or BTTS No when the line reflects public expectation of open play.
- Home vs Away Splits: Melbourne Victory traditionally exploit home advantage at AAMI Park with stronger defensive records and set-piece threat, while Wellington Phoenix often struggle on the road, conceding more and winning fewer points – back the hosts in handicap markets if odds undervalue this disparity.
- Referee Influence: Shaun Evans averages around 3.8-4 yellow cards per game in A-League fixtures, maintaining disciplined but card-heavy control – consider over cards lines, especially in a competitive mid-table battle with potential frustration.
- Pitch and Weather Conditions: AAMI Park’s natural grass surface favors technical play in mild summer conditions (forecast around 24-26°C with low rain chance on December 29), promoting controlled possession rather than end-to-end chaos – lean towards lower totals or draw possibilities.
- Congested Schedule Impact: Both teams face a packed festive period, increasing fatigue risk and potential rotation – monitor late team news for rested players, as this could open value in live betting or alternative markets like corners if starters are preserved.
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Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Match Prediction 2025
Melbourne Victory hold the edge here, courtesy of home form and a favorable head-to-head record. They arrive in better recent shape, unbeaten in three, while Phoenix struggle away and alternate results. Expect Victory to control possession and exploit set pieces, grinding out a narrow win in a low-scoring contest. Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix odds favor the hosts around 1.56, reflecting their superiority at AAMI Park and Phoenix’s road woes. Value backs a home victory with over 2.5 goals, given recent cautious H2H trends.
Our Prediction: Melbourne Victory 2-1 Wellington Phoenix
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Main Prediction | Melbourne Victory to Win | 1.59 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 1.62 |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | 1.68 |
You can place your bet on the Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix match at bc.game, where competitive odds and a wide range of live betting options enhance the experience for this exciting A-League clash.
