The highly anticipated Melbourne Derby returns as Melbourne City host arch-rivals Melbourne Victory in a crucial A-League Men clash. This fixture always delivers intensity, with both sides vying for city bragging rights and valuable league points in the festive period.
The match kicks off at 08:35 GMT+0 on Saturday, December 20, 2025, at AAMI Park (also known as Melbourne Rectangular Stadium) in Melbourne, with a capacity of 30,050. The game will be refereed by Alireza Faghani, an experienced Iranian-Australian official known for his strict approach, averaging around 3.6 yellow cards per game across his career.
This is a regular season encounter in the Isuzu UTE A-League Men, where derbies like this often influence the standings significantly.
BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS
As we dive into this iconic rivalry, recent form and historical trends provide key clues for the Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory prediction today. The derby atmosphere at AAMI Park could play a big role, with home advantage often proving decisive.
Both teams have shown defensive resilience in patches this season, but City’s recent results suggest they are hitting stride. Victory’s inconsistent away form adds another layer. Expect a tactical battle where motivation trumps fatigue from the busy schedule. Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory prediction today points toward a tight, low-scoring affair with value on the hosts.
Melbourne City Results
Melbourne City have displayed solid consistency lately, particularly in defensive setups, while mixing in strong home performances. They remain competitive despite some continental commitments earlier in the month.
Their ability to grind out results has kept them in the upper half of the table.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 10.12.25 | CL | Seoul vs Melbourne City | 1-1 | D |
| 06.12.25 | AL | Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City | 0-1 | W |
| 29.11.25 | AL | Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City | 0-0 | D |
| 25.11.25 | CL | Melbourne City vs Johor DT | 2-0 | W |
| 21.11.25 | AL | Adelaide United vs Melbourne City | 4-1 | L |
City have picked up seven points from their last three league games, showing resilience with two clean sheets. The win over Newcastle Jets highlights their counter-attacking threat. Draws in tough away fixtures demonstrate defensive solidity. The heavy loss to Adelaide remains an outlier. Overall, they enter the derby unbeaten in four across all competitions, boosting confidence at home.
Melbourne Victory Results
Melbourne Victory have endured a mixed run, with defensive lapses costing them in key moments. They sit lower in the standings and need points to climb.
Recent results reflect struggles in front of goal.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 13.12.25 | AL | Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United | 2-1 | W |
| 05.12.25 | AL | Macarthur FC vs Melbourne Victory | 0-0 | D |
| 28.11.25 | AL | Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory | 1-0 | L |
| 22.11.25 | AL | Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory | 3-0 | L |
| 08.11.25 | AL | Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City | 0-2 | L |
Victory snapped a three-game losing streak with a home win over Adelaide, providing a timely boost. The goalless draw at Macarthur showed improved defending. However, heavy defeats to Sydney and City expose vulnerabilities. They have scored just twice in their last five league outings. This patchy form makes away trips challenging, especially in derbies.
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head
The Melbourne Derby has been fiercely contested, with results often swinging based on home advantage. City hold a slight edge in recent encounters, including a convincing win in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
No clear dominant side emerges, but trends favor goals at AAMI Park.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 08.11.25 | AL | Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City | 0-2 |
| 31.05.25 | AL | Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory | 1-0 |
| 22.02.25 | AL | Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City | 2-2 |
| 21.12.24 | AL | Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City | 1-1 |
| 26.10.24 | AL | Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory | 1-3 |
City have won two of the last five, with Victory claiming one and two draws. Three of these produced under 2.5 goals, indicating cautious approaches. City are unbeaten in their last three home derbies against Victory. The 2-0 win in November stands out as City’s most dominant recent performance. Expect another competitive battle with fine margins deciding the outcome.
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Predicted Starting Lineups
Lineups are subject to late changes due to tactical decisions, minor injuries, or rotations, especially with both teams managing a busy December schedule. Official confirmations usually come an hour before kick-off.
These are the predicted starting XIs based on recent performances, available squad news, and typical formations for this Melbourne Derby.
Melbourne City possible starting lineup
Beach (GK); Behich (DF), Bonetig (DF), Ferreyra (DF), Kutleshi (DF); Schreiber (MF), Trewin (MF); Kanamori (MF), Rahmani (FW), Caputo (FW); Memeti (FW)
Melbourne Victory possible starting lineup
Duncan (GK); Inserra (DF), Esposito (DF), Roderick (DF), Davidson (DF); D’Arrigo (MF), Valadon (MF); Jelacic (MF), Mata (FW), Clarismario (FW); Reec (FW)
Key Factors and Team News
Several elements could shape this derby, from squad availability to motivational edges. Both teams face a packed December schedule, but home support and current momentum favor City.
Derbies often defy form, yet data points to specific influences.
- Melbourne City are without key attacker Mathew Leckie, out long-term after hip surgery;
- No major reported injuries for Victory, giving them a fuller squad;
- City boast strong home form, unbeaten in recent AAMI Park league games;
- Victory struggle away, with just one win in their last five road trips;
- Referee Alireza Faghani’s strict style could lead to over 4.5 cards, given derby tension;
- City’s clean sheets in recent outings highlight defensive improvements;
- Victory’s recent win ended a slump, but scoring remains inconsistent;
- Factor of the Christmas Derby adds extra motivation and crowd energy;
- Potential for low-scoring game, as four of last five H2H under 2.5 goals;
- Young talents like Max Caputo could shine for City in attack.
Free Tips on Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
Before placing any bets on this heated Melbourne Derby, consider these practical tips drawn from historical statistics, head-to-head trends, and broader match influences. Analyzing past encounters and team patterns helps identify value opportunities beyond just current form.
These insights focus on data-driven edges for the December 20, 2025, clash at AAMI Park.
- Head-to-Head Trends: Recent derbies have been low-scoring, with four of the last five matches producing under 2.5 goals – back unders if you’re looking for safer options in a typically cautious rivalry.
- Referee Influence: Alireza Faghani averages around 3.6 yellow cards per game in his career; combined with derby intensity, this supports betting on over 4.5 or 5.5 cards.
- Recent Schedule Impact: Both teams have navigated a busy December fixture list, potentially leading to fatigue – watch for signs of rotation or late substitutions affecting the second half.
- Stadium and Crowd Factor: AAMI Park’s passionate atmosphere often boosts the home side, where Melbourne City have remained unbeaten in recent league derbies – factor in home advantage for win or draw-no-bet on City.
- Weather Conditions: Forecasts suggest a high chance of showers in Melbourne, which could slow the pitch and reduce goal-scoring chances, favoring under goals or defensive outcomes.
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Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Match Prediction 2025
In this fiercely contested derby, Melbourne City hold the edge as hosts with superior recent form and a strong record at AAMI Park. Their defensive solidity, evidenced by consecutive clean sheets, should frustrate Victory’s blunt attack. While Victory showed fight in their last win, away struggles and City’s motivation in front of a passionate crowd tip the balance.
The Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory odds reflect a close contest, but value lies with the hosts avoiding defeat at minimum. Expect a tactical, low-scoring battle where City capitalize on set pieces or counters. Victory may keep it tight early, but fatigue from their schedule could open gaps late. Overall, City’s momentum and home advantage make them likely winners, though a draw remains a risk in derbies. Backing under goals aligns with historical trends and current forms. This shapes up as a classic Melbourne showdown with City emerging victorious.
Our Prediction: Melbourne City 2-0 Melbourne Victory
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Melbourne City to Win | 2.14 |
| Both Teams to Score | No | 2.08 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.9 |
Place your bets on this exciting Melbourne Derby fixture and enjoy the action. You can place your bet on the Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory match at bc.game.
