The quarter-final clash between Mali and Senegal promises to be a tense West African derby as both sides battle for a spot in the semi-finals of the Africa Cup of Nations 2025.
This highly anticipated matchup will kick off at 16:00 GMT on January 9, 2026, at the Stade Ibn Batouta in Tangier, Morocco, a venue with a capacity of 75,500 that has already hosted several thrilling encounters in this tournament. The Africa Cup of Nations quarter-final stage adds extra intensity, with Mali aiming for their first semi-final since 2013 and Senegal looking to build on their strong knockout pedigree. No official referee appointment has been confirmed yet for this fixture.
Mali have shown remarkable resilience to reach this stage without a single win in regulation time, while Senegal have impressed with clinical finishing and an unbeaten run in normal time stretching back 15 games.
BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS
As we dive deeper into this quarter-final, understanding recent performances and historical trends will be crucial for any Mali vs Senegal prediction today. Both teams have navigated tough paths to Tangier, with Mali relying on grit and Senegal showcasing attacking flair.
Senegal’s dominance in recent head-to-heads provides a clear edge, but Mali’s defensive solidity could force another drawn-out battle. Expect a tactical chess match where individual moments decide the outcome. The neutral venue in Tangier levels the playing field slightly, though Senegal’s experience in high-stakes AFCON knockouts stands out. Motivation is sky-high for both, but Senegal’s deeper squad may prove decisive in extra time if needed.
Mali Results
Mali have displayed incredible defensive resilience throughout the tournament, advancing despite not securing a victory in normal time across their five matches so far. Their path to the quarter-finals has been marked by draws and penalty heroics, highlighting a team built on organisation and counter-attacking threat.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 03.01.26 | ACN R16 | Mali vs Tunisia | 1-1 (3-2 pen) | W |
| 29.12.25 | ACN | Comoros vs Mali | 0-0 | D |
| 26.12.25 | ACN | Morocco vs Mali | 1-1 | D |
| 22.12.25 | ACN | Mali vs Zambia | 1-1 | D |
| 18.11.25 | FI | Jordan vs Mali | 0-0 | D |
Mali remain unbeaten in their last five outings, conceding just three goals in that span while showing a knack for late equalisers and penalty shootout composure. Their four draws in the tournament proper underscore a solid backline, though scoring remains sporadic with only four goals across those games. The penalty victory over Tunisia, despite playing with ten men for most of the match, boosted confidence immensely. This run of resilience has kept them competitive against stronger sides, but converting draws into wins will be key against Senegal. Fatigue from extra time and penalties could play a factor, yet their defensive discipline has been the foundation of this surprise quarter-final appearance.
Senegal Results
Senegal have been one of the standout teams, topping their group convincingly before dispatching Sudan with authority in the round of 16. Their attacking prowess and ability to recover from deficits have made them a formidable force.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 03.01.26 | ACN R16 | Senegal vs Sudan | 3-1 | W |
| 30.12.25 | ACN | Benin vs Senegal | 0-3 | W |
| 27.12.25 | ACN | Senegal vs D.R. Congo | 1-1 | D |
| 23.12.25 | ACN | Senegal vs Botswana | 3-0 | W |
| 18.11.25 | FI | Senegal vs Kenya | 8-0 | W |
Senegal have won four of their last five matches, scoring an impressive 18 goals while conceding just three. Their clinical edge is evident, with three or more goals in three of those victories, demonstrating superior finishing. The comeback win over Sudan highlighted their mentality, turning a deficit into a comfortable margin. Clean sheets in recent clean wins underline defensive strength when in control. This form positions them as strong favourites, with momentum building toward a potential title defence push.
Mali vs Senegal Head-to-Head (Last 5 Matches)
Senegal hold a commanding edge in recent encounters, remaining unbeaten against Mali in the last ten meetings overall (W6 D4). Their historical dominance adds psychological pressure on the Eagles.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 09.10.19 | WCN | Senegal vs Mali | 2-0 |
| 26.03.19 | FI | Senegal vs Mali | 2-1 |
| 17.11.07 | FI | Mali vs Senegal | 2-3 |
| 08.10.05 | WC | Senegal vs Mali | 3-0 |
| 05.03.14 | FI | Senegal vs Mali | 1-1 |
Senegal have claimed victory in four of the last five direct clashes, often by multiple goals, while the lone draw came over a decade ago. This trend favours the Lions heavily, with Mali struggling to breach their rivals’ defence consistently. The 2004 AFCON meeting (1-1) remains their only tournament encounter, but recent form suggests Senegal’s superiority persists.
Mali vs Senegal Predicted Starting Lineups
Lineups are subject to change based on final team news, tactical decisions, and any late fitness issues, but these are the most likely starting XIs for this Africa Cup of Nations quarter-final based on recent performances and reliable previews. Coaches often opt for continuity in knockouts, with Mali forced into at least one change due to suspension.
Mali predicted lineup:
Diarra (GK), Traoré (DF), Diaby (DF), Camara (DF), Dante (DF), Dieng (MF), Bissouma (MF), Sangare (MF), Doumbia (MF), Coulibaly (MF), Sinayoko (FW).
Senegal predicted lineup:
Mendy (GK), Diatta (DF), Koulibaly (DF), Niakhate (DF), Jakobs (DF), P. Gueye (MF), I. Gueye (MF), Diarra (MF), Mané (FW), Jackson (FW), Ndiaye (FW).
Injured and Questionable Players
Both teams have navigated the tournament with relatively few major absences, but Mali carry the bigger concerns heading into this crucial quarter-final. Senegal appear to have a clean bill of health following their round-of-16 win.
| Team | Player | Reason |
| Mali | Woyo Coulibaly | Suspended (red card vs Tunisia) |
| Mali | Lassana Coulibaly | Doubtful (injury vs Tunisia) |
| Senegal | None reported | Fully fit squad |
Key Factors to Watch
Several elements could swing this quarter-final, from personnel issues to tactical battles and current momentum. Both sides bring distinct strengths, but absences and form will be pivotal.
Mali’s incredible run without regulation wins highlights their defensive solidity and penalty expertise, yet offensive limitations are evident. Senegal boast unmatched depth and clinical attacking options, entering with supreme confidence. Here’s a breakdown of critical aspects:
- Injuries and suspensions: Mali miss suspended defender Woyo Coulibaly after his red card against Tunisia; midfielder Lassana Coulibaly is doubtful after injury Senegal have a fully fit squad with no fresh concerns;
- Current form: Senegal are on a 15-game unbeaten streak in AFCON normal time (W10 D5); Mali unbeaten in five but reliant on draws;
- Key players: El Bilal Touré (Mali) crucial for goals and penalties; Pape Gueye (Senegal) in hot scoring form with braces;
- Defensive resilience: Mali have conceded minimally but face Senegal’s potent attack led by Mané and Jackson;
- Head-to-head dominance: Senegal unbeaten in last ten vs Mali, often winning convincingly;
- Motivation and context: Senegal chase a second title; Mali seek first semi since 2013 amid depletion;
- Tactical matchup: Mali’s counter-attacks vs Senegal’s possession and pressing;
- Late goals and penalties: Mali’s games feature drama (four penalties awarded in tournament); three prior quarter-finals went to extra time/penalties;
- Venue factor: Neutral Tangier, but Senegal played group games there positively.
Free Tips on Mali vs Senegal
Before placing any bets on this intriguing Africa Cup of Nations quarter-final between Mali and Senegal, consider these practical insights drawn from historical data, recent performances, and external factors. These tips focus on elements beyond the core team news to help identify potential value in the markets.
Senegal’s familiarity with the venue could provide a subtle edge, while Mali’s low-scoring tendencies point toward cautious gameplay in this West African derby.
- Venue familiarity: Senegal have played all four of their tournament matches at the Stade Ibn Batouta in Tangier, building comfort on the hybrid grass pitch; Mali, in contrast, have split games across Casablanca and Rabat, potentially facing slight adaptation challenges.
- Productivity in head-to-heads: Recent encounters between these sides have often been low-scoring, with Senegal dominating but matches rarely exceeding 2-3 total goals, supporting bets on unders in a knockout context where caution prevails.
- Pitch surface influence: The hybrid grass at Tangier promotes faster, more precise passing—favoring Senegal’s possession-based style over Mali’s reliance on counters and set pieces.
- Betting odds movement: Senegal are heavily favored across bookmakers (around 1.60-1.65 to win), reflecting their clinical attack; look for value in combined markets like Senegal win + under 2.5 goals if lines shift due to Mali’s defensive resilience.
- Recent schedule impact: Both teams come off demanding round-of-16 ties—Mali’s extra time and penalties could introduce fatigue, while Senegal’s more straightforward win allows better recovery ahead of this Friday clash.
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Mali vs Senegal Match Prediction 2026
Senegal enter as clear favourites, backed by superior form, squad depth, and a dominant head-to-head record. Mali’s resilience has carried them far, but facing a clinical Senegal side depleted by suspension and potential injury could prove too much. The Lions’ ability to score multiple goals in wins and their unbeaten AFCON run in normal time tilt the scales decisively.
While Mali might frustrate early and force a cagey affair, Senegal’s quality should shine through, especially with key players like Sadio Mané pulling strings and Pape Gueye in form. Mali vs Senegal odds reflect this, with Senegal heavily backed to advance. Expect a hard-fought contest, but Senegal’s experience in knockouts and attacking edge point to a narrow victory, potentially decided by individual brilliance or set pieces. Backing Senegal represents value given their momentum and Mali’s struggles to convert chances against top opposition. This could extend Senegal’s impressive streak while ending Mali’s gritty run.
Our Prediction: Mali 0-1 Senegal
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Outcome | Senegal Win | 1.6 |
| Both Teams to Score | No | 1.53 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.53 |
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