Macarthur FC vs Melbourne Victory Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips – A-League 05/12/2025

A-League

Macarthur FC vs Melbourne Victory

Fri, 05 Dec 2025 – 08:35

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2.52

Home

3.5

Draw

2.56

Away

The A-League Round 7 clash between Macarthur FC and Melbourne Victory will take place on Friday, 5 December 2025 at 08:35 GMT+0 at Campbelltown Stadium, Sydney (capacity 17 500). The match will be refereed by Alex King, who this season averages 4.7 yellow cards per game and has already shown 3 red cards in 9 A-League matches. This is a regular season game with both teams desperately needing points for very different reasons.

Macarthur currently sit 9th, while Victory have slipped to 11th after a disastrous November. The Bulls have turned Campbelltown into a fortress in recent months, whereas Victory have lost four of their last five in all competitions.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

Macarthur FC vs Melbourne Victory prediction today points to a low-scoring, cagey affair given both sides’ recent struggles in the final third. Recent form, injuries and tactical adjustments will play a massive role in the outcome. Home advantage has been huge for Macarthur this season (unbeaten in last 6 at Campbelltown). Victory’s away xG over the last five road games sits at a miserable 0.81 per 90. These factors make this one of the most interesting A-League games of the round.

Macarthur FC Results

Macarthur have been inconsistent away from home but remain extremely tough to beat at Campbelltown Stadium. Their attack heavily relies on set pieces and quick transitions. Defensive solidity has improved since the return of key centre-back Tomislav Uskok.

Three wins in last five across all competitions show resilience, but both league defeats came against top-six sides. Only one clean sheet in the last seven league games remains a concern. Still, four of their six league goals this season came at Campbelltown.

Melbourne Victory Results

Melbourne Victory are in free fall – zero wins in their last five A-League matches. Defensive errors have cost them dearly, conceding 11 goals in that span. The absence of several key players has completely disrupted Patrick Kisnorbo’s system.

Four defeats in five league games represent Victory’s worst run since 2021. They have scored just two goals in their last five matches combined. Away form is particularly alarming – no away win since April 2025.

Who will win Friday’s A-League clash between Macarthur FC and Melbourne Victory?

Macarthur FC > Draw > Melbourne Victory >

Macarthur FC

40%

Draw

23%

Melbourne Victory

37%

Macarthur FC vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head (Last 5)

Victory historically dominate this fixture, but Macarthur have won two of the last four meetings.

Three of the last five H2H produced under 2.5 goals. Macarthur are unbeaten in their last three home games against Victory (2W, 1D).

Macarthur FC predicted lineup

Kurto (GK), Politidis (DF), Jurman (DF), Uskok (DF), Talbot (DF), Brattan (MF), Rose (MF), Duran (MF), Caceres (MF), Grzan (MF), Ji (FW)

Melbourne Victory predicted lineup

Duncan (GK), Rawlins (DF), Roderick (DF), Jackson (DF), Davidson (DF), D’Arrigo (MF), Valadon (MF), Jekacic (MF), Mata (FW), Grimaldi (FW), Vergos (FW)

Key Factors & Team News

Both teams are ravaged by injuries and suspensions heading into this crucial match. Form trends strongly favour the hosts despite their patchy overall record.

• Macarthur have won 5 of their last 6 home games in all competitions;
• Melbourne Victory without Nishan Velupillay (suspended), Bruno Fornaroli (hamstring, out until January), and Roderick Miranda (knee);
• Macarthur top scorer Valère Germain is back from suspension and has 4 goals in 5 games vs Victory;
• Victory have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches;
• Macarthur kept 3 clean sheets in last 4 home league games;
• Victory’s xGA on the road this season: 2.05 per 90 – worst in the league;
• Average match goals in H2H at Campbelltown: 2.00;
• Alex King (referee) has given at least one penalty in 4 of his last 6 A-League games.

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Free Tips on Macarthur FC vs Melbourne Victory

Sharp bettors don’t just look at the league table – they dig into the data that actually moves the needle. These five selected factors are the ones that the market is currently sleeping on ahead of Friday’s clash at Campbelltown Stadium and that directly affect the probability of each outcome.

• Home vs Away Split is brutal this season Macarthur at Campbelltown: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats in their last 5 home league games (12:3 goal difference). Melbourne Victory away: 0 wins in last 6 A-League road trips, conceding 2.33 goals per 90 and scoring only 0.67.
• Head-to-Head trend at this exact venue In the last four meetings at Campbelltown, Macarthur are unbeaten (2 wins, 2 draws), with three of those games ending Under 2.5 goals and Victory scoring just once from open play.
• Referee Alex King’s card line is sky-high for the visitors King has shown Melbourne Victory players 19 yellow cards in his last six games involving them (3.17 per match) – the highest average of any A-League side under him. Macarthur average only 1.8 YC in the same sample.
• Recent schedule congestion hits Victory harder Victory played 8 matches in the last 35 days (travel to Brisbane Sydney Melbourne Sydney again). Macarthur had a full week to prepare after their mid-week AFC Cup game and trained fully since Monday.
• Pitch dimension & surface advantage Campbelltown Stadium has the narrowest pitch in the A-League (68 m width). Macarthur’s compact 4-4-2 block and heavy use of wide centre-backs in possession exploits the lack of space perfectly, while Victory’s preferred wide overloads under Kisnorbo become far less effective – they average -0.41 xG per 90 on pitches ≤68 m since 2024.

Macarthur FC vs Melbourne Victory Match Prediction 2025

Despite Victory’s historical edge, the current Macarthur FC vs Melbourne Victory odds massively underrate the hosts. Macarthur are rock-solid at Campbelltown, Victory are missing their three most creative players, and Kisnorbo’s side have completely lost confidence in attack. The Bulls win to nil looks the standout value – they’ve kept three consecutive home clean sheets, while Victory have scored just twice in 450 minutes of football. Expected goals model gives Macarthur 1.58 xG vs Victory’s 0.92. Add in Germain’s excellent record against Victory and the return of Uskok at centre-back, and the home win becomes even clearer. Best value lies in combining Macarthur victory with under 3.5 goals – perfectly matches both teams’ current profiles.

Our Prediction: Macarthur FC 2-1 Melbourne Victory

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