The second leg of the UEFA Europa League qualification round between Legia Warsaw and AEK Larnaca is set for August 14, 2025, at 19:00 GMT+0 at the Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Warsaw, Poland, with a capacity of 31,800. Latvian referee Andris Treimanis will officiate, known for his balanced approach, averaging 0.3 penalties per match, which could impact high-foul teams like Legia.
This crucial Europa League qualifier follows AEK Larnaca’s dominant 4:1 victory in the first leg, putting Legia in a challenging position to overturn a three-goal deficit. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Legia competing in the Polish Ekstraklasa and AEK Larnaca navigating a demanding European schedule, making this Legia vs AEK Larnaca prediction 2025 a compelling study of form, tactics, and stake.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
To craft an informed Legia vs AEK Larnaca prediction today, we dive into recent performances and historical data. Legia’s home advantage at Stadion Wojska Polskiego could be pivotal, but their defensive lapses in the first leg raise concerns. AEK Larnaca’s attacking output, particularly at home, suggests they can exploit counterattacks. Head-to-head results and individual player contributions will shape expectations. This section sets the stage for a detailed breakdown of both teams’ form and key factors influencing the Legia vs AEK Larnaca betting tips.
Legia Results
Legia Warsaw’s recent performances reflect a mix of resilience and inconsistency as they juggle domestic and European commitments. Their Ekstraklasa campaign shows flashes of quality, but the heavy defeat to AEK Larnaca exposed vulnerabilities in their backline. Below is a summary of their last five matches across all competitions.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 10/08/2025 | EKS | Legia vs GKS Katowice | 3:1 | W |
| 07/08/2025 | EL | AEK Larnaca vs Legia | 4:1 | L |
| 03/08/2025 | EKS | Legia vs Arka Gdynia | 0:0 | D |
| 31/07/2025 | EL | Legia vs Ostrava | 2:1 | W |
| 27/07/2025 | EKS | Korona Kielce vs Legia | 0:2 | W |
Legia’s home form is solid, with two wins and a draw in their last three home games, scoring five goals. However, the 4:1 loss to AEK Larnaca highlights defensive issues, conceding 1.8 xG in that match alone (per Opta). Their attack, led by players like Josué (2.1 key passes per game), remains potent at home. The draw against Arka Gdynia suggests fatigue from a congested schedule. Legia must sharpen their finishing to overcome the three-goal deficit.
AEK Larnaca Results
AEK Larnaca have been a formidable force in the Europa League qualifiers, leveraging their attacking prowess and tactical discipline. Their first-leg performance against Legia showcased clinical finishing and midfield control. Below is a summary of their last five matches.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 07/08/2025 | EL | AEK Larnaca vs Legia | 4:1 | W |
| 31/07/2025 | EL | AEK Larnaca vs Celje | 2:1 | W |
| 24/07/2025 | EL | Celje vs AEK Larnaca | 1:1 | D |
| 17/07/2025 | EL | Partizan vs AEK Larnaca | 2:2 | D |
| 10/07/2025 | EL | AEK Larnaca vs Partizan | 1:0 | W |
AEK Larnaca’s form is strong, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, scoring 10 goals. Their home performances are particularly dominant, with an xG of 2.3 per game in European qualifiers (Wyscout data). The 4:1 thrashing of Legia showcased their counterattacking threat, led by forwards like Fran Sol (1.1 xG/90). Away form is less convincing, with draws against Celje and Partizan. They’ll likely adopt a defensive approach in Warsaw to protect their lead.
Legia vs AEK Larnaca Head-to-Head Results
The head-to-head record between Legia and AEK Larnaca is limited but telling, with AEK holding the upper hand in recent encounters. Their clashes have been high-stakes, with both teams showing offensive intent. Below are the last two recorded meetings, as only two are available.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 07/08/2025 | EL | AEK Larnaca vs Legia | 4:1 |
| 16/06/2016 | CF | Legia vs AEK Larnaca | 0:1 |
AEK Larnaca have won both recorded matches, scoring five goals to Legia’s one. The 4:1 first-leg result in 2025 underlines AEK’s current superiority, particularly in exploiting Legia’s high defensive line. Despite the 2016 match being a friendly, AEK’s consistency against Legia suggests tactical familiarity.
Legia Warsaw Possible Starting Lineup
Legia’s manager is expected to deploy a 4-4-2 formation, emphasizing attacking width and midfield creativity to overturn the deficit:
Tobiasz (GK), Wszolek (DF), Kapuadi (DF), Jedrzejczyk (DF), Vinagre (DF), Augustyniak (MF), Urbanski (MF), Morishita (MF), Goncalves (MF), Stojanovic (FW), Nsame (FW).
AEK Larnaca Possible Starting Lineup
AEK Larnaca are likely to stick with their compact 4-3-3, focusing on defensive stability and counterattacks:
Alomerovic (GK), Ekpolo (DF), Milicevic (DF), Roberge (DF), Gnali (DF), Ledes (MF), Miramon (MF), Pons (MF), Ivanovic (FW), Angelski (FW), Chacon (FW).
Injured and Questionable Players
Injuries and doubtful players can significantly impact the outcome of this Legia vs AEK Larnaca clash, particularly given the high stakes of the match. Below is a summary of players who are either confirmed injured or questionable, based on the latest available team news (Transfermarkt and club sources). This information is critical for assessing each team’s potential performance.
| Team | Player | Injury/Status |
| Legia Warsaw | Rafał Augustyniak | Hamstring (Doubtful) |
| Legia Warsaw | Bartosz Kapustka | Knee (Out) |
| AEK Larnaca | None reported | N/A |
Legia’s midfield could be weakened if Augustyniak, a key presser with 2.3 tackles per game, fails to recover. Kapustka’s absence further limits Legia’s creative options, forcing reliance on younger players like Urbanski. AEK Larnaca report no major injuries, giving them a slight edge in squad depth.
Key Factors to Watch
To make an accurate Legia vs AEK Larnaca match prediction, several variables must be considered beyond raw form. Both teams face unique challenges, from injuries to tactical adjustments, that could sway the outcome. Below are critical elements shaping this Europa League qualifier.
- Legia’s Home Form: Legia have won 65% of their home matches in the Ekstraklasa since 2024, averaging 1.9 goals per game (Opta);
- AEK’s Away Struggles: AEK Larnaca have failed to win in their last two away European matches, drawing both (1:1, 2:2);
- Injuries for Legia: Key midfielder Rafał Augustyniak is doubtful with a hamstring issue, potentially weakening Legia’s press (Transfermarkt);
- AEK’s Key Player: Fran Sol’s 1.1 xG/90 makes him a constant threat, especially on counters (Wyscout);
- Legia’s Defensive Lapses: Conceded 4 goals in the first leg, with a PPDA of 12.5 indicating poor pressing efficiency;
- AEK’s Discipline: AEK’s low foul rate (9.2 per game) suits Treimanis’ strict refereeing style, reducing penalty risks;
- Schedule Fatigue: Legia’s third match in eight days could impact intensity, with 20% higher injury risk (Sports Science Journal);
- Motivation Factor: Legia face elimination unless they score 3+ goals, pushing them to attack aggressively from the start.
Free Tips on Legia vs AEK Larnaca
The following tips for the Legia vs AEK Larnaca match prediction are derived from detailed statistical analysis and historical data. These insights focus on unique aspects of the game to guide your betting decisions. Consider these factors to enhance your understanding of the upcoming clash.
- Player Form Impact: Legia’s Marc Gual has scored in two of his last three home games, making him a likely goalscorer candidate (1.2 xG/90, Wyscout).
- Pitch Surface Dynamics: Stadion Wojska Polskiego’s natural grass pitch, expected to be in good condition, favors Legia’s possession-based style over AEK’s quicker transitions.
- Fan Influence: Legia’s passionate home crowd, averaging 25,000 attendees, could boost their early aggression, increasing the likelihood of corners (Legia average 6.2 per home game).
- Upcoming Fixtures: AEK may rest key players like Pere Pons with a domestic league match looming, potentially reducing their midfield control.
- Betting Odds Value: Look for value in markets like “Legia to win first half” given their 70% first-half goal rate at home (Opta).
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Legia vs AEK Larnaca Match Prediction 2025
For the Legia vs AEK Larnaca prediction 2025, AEK Larnaca hold a commanding 4:1 lead from the first leg, making their advancement likely unless Legia produce a historic comeback. Legia’s home advantage and attacking depth, driven by Josué and Marc Gual (combined 3.2 xG in recent home games), give them hope, but overturning a three-goal deficit is rare only 8% of teams achieve this in UEFA competitions (UEFA stats). AEK’s compact 4-2-3-1 setup, anchored by Pere Pons, excels at absorbing pressure and hitting on the break, as seen in their 4:1 rout. The Legia vs AEK Larnaca odds reflect this, with AEK favored to progress at 1.4 (implied 71% probability). Legia’s high defensive line (average 52m) is vulnerable to AEK’s pace, especially with Sol’s finishing. However, Legia’s home crowd and desperation could force early goals, potentially leading to a high-scoring game. Weather in Warsaw (clear, 20°C) won’t impact play, but Legia’s fatigue from a packed schedule may limit their second-half intensity. AEK’s disciplined approach and lead make them likely to at least draw, securing qualification. We predict a 2:1 Legia win, but AEK advancing on aggregate.
Our Prediction: Legia 2:1 AEK Larnaca
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Legia Win | 1.66 |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | 1.7 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.64 |
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