The third-round Asian qualifier pits Iraq against United Arab Emirates at Basra International Stadium on November 18, 2025. Kick-off is scheduled for 16:00 GMT+0. No referee appointment has been confirmed by the AFC 24 hours prior to the fixture. This Group A clash follows a 1-1 draw between the sides five days earlier in Al Ain.
Both nations sit mid-table with identical records after four matches, making this return leg pivotal for direct World Cup berth contention. Basra’s 65,227-capacity venue typically delivers a hostile atmosphere and high humidity (forecast 28°C, 65% humidity), factors that historically favour the hosts.
BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS
Iraq vs United Arab Emirates prediction today centres on low-scoring trends and defensive resilience. Recent form reveals both squads prioritising structure over flair in qualification. Head-to-head data reinforces cagey affairs. Expect tactical discipline rather than end-to-end action. Bettors should target unders and Asian handicap markets.
Iraq Results
Iraq remain unbeaten across their last five competitive outings, conceding just twice. Home advantage has proven decisive in qualification. The Lions of Mesopotamia converted 1-0 leads in three of those fixtures.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 13.11.25 | WC | UAE vs Iraq | 1-1 | D |
| 14.10.25 | WC | Saudi Arabia vs Iraq | 0-0 | D |
| 11.10.25 | WC | Iraq vs Indonesia | 1-0 | W |
| 07.09.25 | KC | Thailand vs Iraq | 0-1 | W |
| 04.09.25 | KC | Iraq vs Hong Kong | 2-1 | W |
Three consecutive clean sheets prior to the UAE draw underline defensive solidity. Iraq average 0.8 xG conceded per 90 in qualification (Opta). Aymen Hussein’s aerial threat (2.1 headers won/90) remains the primary outlet. Basra’s perfect home record in this cycle (2 wins, 6-1 aggregate) amplifies confidence. Only Saudi Arabia’s organisation has frustrated them recently.
United Arab Emirates Results
UAE recovered from an opening qualifier defeat to win three straight before the Iraq stalemate. Paulo Bento’s side thrives on transitions rather than possession dominance. Set-piece efficiency stands out.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 13.11.25 | WC | UAE vs Iraq | 1-1 | D |
| 14.10.25 | WC | Qatar vs UAE | 2-1 | L |
| 11.10.25 | WC | UAE vs Oman | 2-1 | W |
| 08.09.25 | FI | UAE vs Bahrain | 1-0 | W |
| 04.09.25 | FI | UAE vs Syria | 3-1 | W |
Four of five matches produced under 2.5 goals total. UAE’s PPDA sits at 9.8 away from home, indicating mid-block pragmatism. Ali Mabkhout (0.92 NPxG/90) carries goal threat despite limited service. Defensive injuries expose fragility conceding 2+ goals in both away qualifiers. Bento’s rotation policy risks cohesion on short turnaround.
Iraq vs UAE Head To Head
Personal encounters consistently deliver draws or narrow Iraq victories. Four of five meetings since 2019 ended under 2.5 goals. Basra hosted the solitary decisive result.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 13.11.25 | WC | UAE vs Iraq | 1-1 |
| 24.03.22 | WC | Iraq vs UAE | 1-0 |
| 12.10.21 | WC | UAE vs Iraq | 2-2 |
| 12.01.21 | FI | UAE vs Iraq | 0-0 |
| 29.11.19 | AGC | UAE vs Iraq | 0-2 |
Iraq’s 100% unbeaten H2H streak since 2019 (3 wins, 2 draws) reflects psychological edge. UAE scored first in three of the last four but failed to win any. Goal timing clusters post-60th minute (4/7 total goals).
Iraq vs United Arab Emirates Predicted Lineups
Lineups are confirmed approximately 60–90 minutes before kick-off by the AFC, but based on training reports from Basra on November 16–17, press-conference hints and first-leg usage, here are the most probable starting XIs for tomorrow’s World Cup qualifier.
Iraq possible starting lineup
Jalal Hasan (GK) Hussein Ali, Rebin Sulaka, Zaid Tahseen, Ahmed Doski, Amir Al-Ammari, Osama Jabbar, Zidane Iqbal, Ali Jasim, Mohanad Ali, Aymen Hussein
United Arab Emirates possible starting lineup
Khaled Eisa (GK) Khalifa Al-Hammadi, Meloni Pimenta, Zouhir, Rodrigo Canedo, Luiz Pereira, Yahya Nader, Abdullah Ramadan, Sultan Alamiri, Nicolas Gimenez, Fabio Lima
Key Match Factors
- Basra Fortress: Iraq’s perfect 2025 home qualification record (6 GF, 1 GA) faces sternest test yet.
- Rest Disparity: UAE’s 5-day turnaround (vs Iraq’s 6) triggers average 9% drop in high-intensity sprints (Catapult data).
- Hussein Return: Aymen Hussein back from suspension; 1.1 xG/90 at home unmatched in squad.
- Mabkhout Doubtful: UAE captain Ali Mabkhout 75% chance miss (hamstring, per club medical).
- Aerial Dominance: Iraq midfield pair Sulaka–Al-Ammari won 68% aerial duels in first leg.
- Tactical Shift: Bento expected to deploy 3-5-2 to neutralize Iraq wing-back overload.
- THI Penalty: Forecast 29 index; UAE pass accuracy fell 12% in similar Qatar conditions.
- Unbeaten Streak: Iraq now 10 competitive matches without defeat.
Free Tips on Iraq vs United Arab Emirates
This section distills actionable betting edges from granular data on prior clashes, form cycles, and contextual variables specific to the November 18 Basra rematch. Four high-value filters emerge after cross-referencing Opta/WhoScored metrics with the teams’ micro-histories. Apply them sequentially to isolate value in Iraq vs United Arab Emirates prediction 2025 markets.
- Pitch & Surface Continuity: Basra International uses hybrid grass (95% natural, Desso system); both squads trained on identical surfaces in the first leg expect zero adaptation lag. Iraq’s pass completion rises 6% on hybrid vs UAE’s 3% drop on away natural turf (last 10 away).
- Congested Fixture Micro-Cycle: UAE face a 4-day turnaround (travel-inclusive), correlating with -14% total distance covered in second legs of double-headers (Catapult 2024/25). Iraq’s 5-day gap preserves sprint volume; target Iraq corners +1.5 (averaged 7.2 vs UAE’s 4.1 in short-rest scenarios).
- Referee Card Bias: AFC appointee (unconfirmed) averages 4.8 cards in Iraq home qualifiers since 2023; UAE commit 2.1 fouls in zone 14 per 90 away. Back over 4.5 cards if Al-Mansoori (strictest regional official) is named probability 68% based on rotation.
- Player Form Micro-Streak: Aymen Hussein registers 1.3 xG/90 in Basra starts this cycle; UAE centre-back Al-Hammadi suspended Hussein’s header success jumps to 78% without him. Layer Hussein anytime goalscorer with Iraq win for enhanced Iraq vs United Arab Emirates match prediction payout.
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Iraq vs UAE Match Prediction 2025
Iraq vs United Arab Emirates odds favour the hosts at 2.10, reflecting Basra fortress status and UAE’s away fragility. Expect another low-event encounter: both teams average <10 shots on target combined in qualification. Iraq’s set-piece conversion (28%) dwarfs UAE’s travel mark (11%). Defensive metrics xGA differential +0.7 for Iraq at home tilt probability toward a narrow victory. Short recovery disproportionately impacts UAE’s pressing intensity (PPDA +2.1 away on <5 days rest). Hussein’s aerial duel win rate (72% home) exploits UAE centre-back Khalifa Al-Hammadi’s suspension. Under 2.5 goals landed in 8/10 combined matches this cycle. Probabilistic model (Opta): Iraq 1-0 (28%), 2-0 (19%), 1-1 (17%). Recommended play: Iraq -0.5 Asian Handicap.
Our Prediction: Iraq 1-0 United Arab Emirates
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Iraq to win | 2.18 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.44 |
| Both Teams To Score | No | 1.6 |
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