The Iceland vs Ukraine match prediction for 2025 is set to be a crucial clash in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification campaign, with both teams vying for a top-two spot in Group D. Scheduled for October 10, 2025, at 18:45 GMT+0, the match will take place at Laugardalsvöllur Stadium in Reykjavík, Iceland, with a capacity of 9,500. German referee Jablonski S. will officiate, bringing his reputation for strict but fair decisions to this high-stakes encounter. This World Cup qualification fixture represents a pivotal moment for both nations, as Iceland aim to build on their recent thrashing of Azerbaijan, while Ukraine look to end their winless streak in the campaign.
Iceland, under head coach Arnar Gunnlaugsson, are chasing their third major tournament appearance, having last qualified for the 2018 World Cup. Ukraine, with a stronger history in European Championships, are desperate to secure their first World Cup berth since 2006, making this match a critical step in their journey.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
The Iceland vs Ukraine prediction today hinges on recent form, head-to-head history, and key player performances. Both teams have shown offensive capabilities but struggle with consistency, setting the stage for a competitive encounter. Iceland’s recent results suggest a strong home advantage, while Ukraine’s resilience in away games cannot be overlooked. Analyzing the last five matches of each team and their head-to-head record will provide deeper insights into potential outcomes. These factors, combined with tactical approaches, will shape the Iceland vs Ukraine betting tips for this World Cup qualifier.
Iceland Results
Iceland’s recent performances reflect a team capable of explosive results but vulnerable to stronger opposition. Their 5-0 victory over Azerbaijan showcased their attacking potential, while a narrow loss to France highlighted defensive resilience. With home support at Laugardalsvöllur, they aim to capitalize on their physical style of play.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 09/09/25 | WC | France vs Iceland | 2-1 | L |
| 05/09/25 | WC | Iceland vs Azerbaijan | 5-0 | W |
| 10/06/25 | FI | Northern Ireland vs Iceland | 1-0 | L |
| 06/06/25 | FI | Scotland vs Iceland | 1-3 | W |
| 23/03/25 | UNL | Iceland vs Kosovo | 1-3 | L |
Iceland’s form is inconsistent, with three losses in their last five games, but their home win against Azerbaijan was a statement of intent. The 5-0 result showcased their ability to dominate weaker sides, particularly at home. However, losses to France and Kosovo exposed vulnerabilities against teams with strong midfields. Andri Guðjohnsen’s goal-scoring form is a positive, but defensive lapses remain a concern. Playing at Laugardalsvöllur could tilt the balance in their favor against Ukraine.
Ukraine Results
Ukraine have struggled to find their footing in the World Cup qualifiers, remaining winless after two matches. Their recent friendly results show a mix of resilience and fragility, with a win against New Zealand but a heavy loss to Belgium. Georgiy Sudakov’s late scoring threat keeps their attack dangerous, but defensive issues persist.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 09/09/25 | WC | Azerbaijan vs Ukraine | 1-1 | D |
| 05/09/25 | WC | Ukraine vs France | 0-2 | L |
| 11/06/25 | FI | New Zealand vs Ukraine | 1-2 | W |
| 07/06/25 | FI | Canada vs Ukraine | 4-2 | L |
| 23/03/25 | UNL | Belgium vs Ukraine | 3-0 | L |
Ukraine’s winless run in qualifiers (one draw, one loss) highlights their struggle to convert chances into wins. Their draw against Azerbaijan showed resilience, but the loss to France exposed defensive weaknesses. Seven of their last nine games have seen both teams score, indicating an open style of play. Sudakov’s second-half goals are a consistent threat, but the absence of Roman Yaremchuk limits their attacking options. Ukraine will need to tighten their defense to compete in Reykjavík.
Iceland vs Ukraine Head-to-Head Results
The head-to-head history between Iceland and Ukraine leans slightly in Ukraine’s favor, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five encounters. Their most recent meeting in March 2024 saw Ukraine edge out a 2-1 victory in a Euro 2024 qualifier. These matches have often been close, with goals frequently coming in the second half.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 26/03/24 | EUR | Ukraine vs Iceland | 2-1 |
| 05/09/17 | WC | Iceland vs Ukraine | 2-0 |
| 05/09/16 | WC | Ukraine vs Iceland | 1-1 |
| 08/09/99 | EUR | Iceland vs Ukraine | 0-1 |
| 31/03/99 | EUR | Ukraine vs Iceland | 1-1 |
Ukraine’s slight edge in head-to-head results (W2, D2, L1) gives them a psychological advantage, but Iceland’s 2-0 home win in 2017 shows their potential to upset at Laugardalsvöllur. Four of the five matches produced under 2.5 goals, suggesting tight contests. Both teams have scored in three of these games, indicating a trend toward competitive, low-scoring affairs.
Iceland Possible Starting Lineup
Iceland’s predicted lineup reflects their physical and direct approach, with Andri Guðjohnsen leading the attack:
Olafsson (GK), Palsson (DF), Ingason (DF), Gretarsson (DF), Tomasson (DF), Thorsteinsson (MF), Johannesson (MF), Haraldsson (MF), Anderson (MF), A Gudjohnsen (FW), D Gudjohnsen (FW).
Ukraine Possible Starting Lineup
Ukraine’s lineup is expected to emphasize technical play and second-half attacking surges, with Sudakov as a key creator:
Trubin (GK), Konoplya (DF), Zabarnyi (DF), Matviienko (DF), Mykolenko (DF), Ocheretko (MF), Kaliuzhnyi (MF), Bondarenko (MF), Malinovskyi (MF), Vanat (FW), Sudakov (MF).
Key Factors to Watch
Several critical elements will shape the Iceland vs Ukraine match prediction. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance but are plagued by inconsistencies and injuries. Below are the key factors that could decide the outcome:
- Iceland’s Home Form: Iceland’s 5-0 win over Azerbaijan at Laugardalsvöllur highlights their strength at home, where fan support and familiarity boost their performance;
- Ukraine’s Second-Half Scoring: All eight of Ukraine’s recent goals have come after half-time, with Georgiy Sudakov being a key late threat;
- Injuries: Iceland are without captain Orri Óskarsson (thigh injury), weakening their defensive structure, while Ukraine miss Roman Yaremchuk (calf), limiting their attacking depth;
- Iceland’s Discipline Issues: Six of the last seven red cards in Iceland’s matches have gone to the home side, suggesting potential for disciplinary problems;
- Ukraine’s Defensive Frailties: Ukraine have conceded in seven of their last nine games, often struggling against physically imposing teams like Iceland;
- Andri Guðjohnsen’s Form: Iceland’s forward has scored in matches where both teams find the net, making him a focal point in attack;
- Tactical Battle: Iceland’s direct, physical style contrasts with Ukraine’s more technical approach, which could struggle on Reykjavík’s compact pitch;
- Referee Influence: Jablonski S. is known for strict officiating, which could lead to cards if Iceland’s physicality crosses the line.
Free Tips on Iceland vs Ukraine
To craft effective Iceland vs Ukraine betting tips, consider specific statistical and contextual factors that could influence the match outcome. By examining team and player statistics, as well as external conditions, you can make informed predictions for this World Cup qualifier. Below are key tips tailored to this matchup:
- Evaluate Pitch Conditions: Laugardalsvöllur’s natural grass pitch, if affected by Iceland’s often harsh weather, could slow the game, favoring Iceland’s physical style over Ukraine’s technical play.
- Consider Recent Schedule Fatigue: Ukraine’s recent matches, including a trip to Azerbaijan, may lead to fatigue, potentially impacting their performance against a well-rested Iceland side.
- Assess League Position Motivation: Iceland’s ambition to secure a rare World Cup qualification spot drives their intensity, while Ukraine’s need to end a 20-year World Cup drought adds pressure.
- Factor in Fan Influence: The passionate home crowd at Laugardalsvöllur could act as Iceland’s “12th man,” boosting their performance in crucial moments.
- Monitor Betting Odds for Value: Iceland vs Ukraine odds may shift closer to match day, so identifying value bets, such as Iceland’s home win or both teams to score, can enhance returns.
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Iceland vs Ukraine Match Prediction 2025
The Iceland vs Ukraine prediction 2025 leans toward a closely contested match, with Iceland’s home advantage giving them a slight edge. Iceland’s 5-0 thrashing of Azerbaijan showcased their ability to dominate at Laugardalsvöllur, where their physical style and fan support create a formidable atmosphere. Ukraine, despite their technical quality, have struggled defensively, conceding in seven of their last nine games, and their winless run in qualifiers (0-1-1) raises concerns about their ability to secure a result away. The absence of Roman Yaremchuk further weakens their attack, while Iceland’s Andri Guðjohnsen is in form and likely to exploit Ukraine’s shaky backline. Historical head-to-head data suggests tight games, with four of five previous meetings producing under 2.5 goals. However, Ukraine’s tendency for both teams to score and Iceland’s home scoring prowess point to a game with goals. Considering Iceland vs Ukraine odds, a narrow victory, possibly 1-2, feels likely due to their home strength and Ukraine’s defensive issues. The match could hinge on Iceland’s ability to capitalize early and Ukraine’s reliance on second-half surges, but the home side’s momentum and physicality should prevail.
Our Prediction: Iceland 1-2 Ukraine
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Ukraine to Win | 2.46 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 1.99 |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | 1.8 |
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