Gremio vs Palmeiras (3:2): Brazil Serie A Betano 26/11/2025

November 26, 2025

Status: Finished

3-2

Brazil Serie A Betano

Gremio

Palmeiras

The crucial Brazil Serie A Betano Round 36 clash between Gremio and Palmeiras will take place on November 26, 2025, at 00:30 GMT+0 at the iconic Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre. With a capacity of 60,540, the stadium is expected to be close to full as the home side fights desperately against relegation.

The match will be officiated by Brazilian referee Sampaio S. who averages 4.8 yellow cards per game this season and has shown a slight tendency to favour the visiting side in tight contests (58 % away cards). This is a direct six-pointer in the relegation-promotion battle with Gremio sitting just above the drop zone.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

Our Gremio vs Palmeiras prediction today leans towards a low-scoring affair given both teams’ recent struggles in the final third and Palmeiras’ league-best defensive record away from home. Recent form shows two clubs heading in opposite directions – the hosts are winless in four of their last five, while the visitors have kept clean sheets in three straight league matches. Defensive solidity and tactical caution will likely dominate.

Gremio Results

Gremio’s season has turned into a relegation battle after a promising mid-table start. Renato Gaúcho’s men have managed only one victory in their last eight Serie A matches across all venues. Home form remains their only real weapon.

Gremio have scored just four goals in their last five matches while conceding nine. Their only home win in this stretch came against struggling Vasco. The attack heavily depends on set-pieces (42 % of goals), and without suspended centre-forward Diego Costa, creativity in open play is almost non-existent. Defensive fragility away from home is alarming – zero clean sheets in eight road games.

Palmeiras Results

Abel Ferreira’s Palmeiras have transformed into the most difficult team to score against in Brazil over the last month. Three consecutive 0-0 draws at Allianz Parque highlight their new pragmatic approach after losing key attackers in the transfer window.

Palmeiras have conceded only one goal in their last four away matches across all competitions. They are unbeaten in nine of their last ten league games on the road when keeping a clean sheet in the first half. Recent matches average just 1.8 total goals – the lowest figure in the division.

Who will win Wednesday’s Brazil Serie A Betano clash between Gremio and Palmeiras?

Gremio > Draw > Palmeiras >

Gremio

33%

Draw

23%

Palmeiras

44%

Gremio vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head

Palmeiras completely dominate the recent rivalry, winning four of the last five encounters including both meetings this calendar year.

Palmeiras have kept clean sheets in the last two visits to Arena do Grêmio and scored exactly once in each of their last four H2H wins.

Gremio vs Palmeiras Predicted Starting Lineups

Below are the most likely starting XIs for the Serie A clash on November 26, 2025, based on the latest training reports, press conferences and tactical patterns used by both managers in recent weeks.

Gremio possible starting lineup

Tiago Volpi (GK) — Marcos Rocha (DF), Wagner Leonardo (DF), Walter Kannemann (DF), Marlon (DF) Dodi (MF), Arthur (MF) Alysson Edward (MF), Edenilson (MF), Francis Amuzu (FW) Carlos Vinícius (FW)

Palmeiras possible starting lineup

Carlos Miguel (GK) — Agustín Giay (DF), Gustavo Gómez (DF), Bruno Fuchs (DF), Jefte (DF) Emiliano Martínez (MF), Andreas Pereira (MF) Felipe Anderson (MF), Raphael Veiga (MF), Ramón Sosa (MF) José Manuel López (FW)

Key Points to Watch

• Gremio will be without top scorer Diego Costa (suspended) and starting right-back João Pedro (ACL tear) – they have failed to score in three of the last four matches without Costa;
• Palmeiras captain Gustavo Gómez returns from suspension and has formed the best CB partnership in the league (0.67 goals conceded per 90 with him on the pitch);
• Gremio have gone under 2.5 goals in eight of their last ten home games when listed as underdogs;
• Palmeiras are unbeaten in 14 consecutive Serie A away games when leading at half-time (11W-3D);
• Referee Sampaio S. has awarded Palmeiras two penalties in his last three games involving them;
• Gremio’s expected goals (xG) at home this season: 1.18 per game – worst among the current top-15 teams;
• Palmeiras have the best defensive xGA away record in 2025 (0.81 per match).
• Four of the last five H2H produced under 2.5 goals and no both teams to score.

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Free Tips on Gremio vs Palmeiras

Before placing any bet on this crucial Serie A relegation six-pointer, these five data-driven angles — taken strictly from recent statistics, head-to-head trends and situational factors — give the clearest edge for November 26.

• Palmeiras have won the last three head-to-head meetings with an aggregate score of 3-0 and all three matches finished Under 2.5 goals. When Abel Ferreira’s side visits Arena do Grêmio since 2023, they have never conceded more than once and kept two clean sheets in the last two trips.
• Gremio’s home matches this season average only 2.06 total goals (4th lowest in the league) and drop to 1.71 goals per game when Diego Costa is missing — he is suspended for this fixture. Without their main striker, Gremio failed to score in 5 of their last 8 home games against current top-10 defences.
• Palmeiras are on a league-high run of 562 minutes without conceding a goal away from home in Serie A. In away matches after a 0-0 home draw (exactly their situation), they have won 6 of the last 7 (85.7 %) while keeping six clean sheets.
• Arena do Grêmio’s pitch has been heavily watered in the last three November night games due to high temperatures in Porto Alegre (forecast 24-26 °C and 70 % humidity). On wet surfaces, Palmeiras’ low-block and quick counter style produced Under 2.5 goals in 11 of their last 12 away matches under similar conditions.
• Referee Sampaio S. has overseen 14 Palmeiras matches since 2023 and the Verdão are yet to lose with him (9W-5D); in those games the average total goals is just 2.14 and BTTS-No landed in 10 of 14 (71 %).

Gremio vs Palmeiras Match Prediction 2025

Everything points to another low-scoring, cagey affair. Gremio are desperate but blunt in attack without Costa, while Palmeiras under Abel Ferreira are masters of controlling games away from home with minimal risk. The Gremio vs Palmeiras odds heavily favour the visitors on the Asian handicap, and the data backs it completely.

We expect Palmeiras to leave Porto Alegre with at least a point and most likely all three via another 0-1 or 0-0 result – exactly how they won both meetings last season. Defensive organisation, Gómez’s return, and Gremio’s inability to create high-quality chances make the away win the value play.

Our Prediction: Gremio 0-1 Palmeiras

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