Gremio vs Fluminense (1:2): Brazil Serie A Betano 03/12/2025

December 03, 2025

Status: Finished

1-2

Brazil Serie A Betano

Gremio

Fluminense

The Brazil Serie A Betano clash between Gremio and Fluminense will take place on December 3, 2025, at 00:30 GMT+0. The match will be hosted at the iconic Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre, a 60,540-capacity fortress known for its intense atmosphere and excellent pitch conditions. Brazilian referee Claus R. has been appointed to officiate this round-36 fixture – one of the most experienced officials in the league with an average of 5.2 yellow cards per game this season.

This mid-week encounter carries huge weight: Gremio are fighting to secure a direct Copa Libertadores spot (currently 6th–8th places), while Fluminense are in a desperate battle to escape the relegation zone with only three rounds remaining. Gremio vs Fluminense prediction today points to a highly motivated home side against visitors who have improved defensively but still struggle away.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

Both clubs enter this game in very different moods after contrasting results in round 35. Gremio vs Fluminense prediction today heavily depends on home/away splits, recent defensive solidity, and the impact of key absences. The market has already started moving toward the hosts, but there is still value in specific lines.

Gremio Results

Gremio have turned Arena do Grêmio into a real stronghold in the second half of the season, winning four of their last six home matches across all competitions. Renato Gaúcho’s side showed character by beating Palmeiras 3-2 in their most recent outing despite being second best for large periods. Their attack remains dangerous through quick transitions led by Pavón and Soteldo.

Gremio have scored in nine consecutive home games but kept only two clean sheets in the last ten league matches at Arena do Grêmio. They win 67 % of duels in the middle third when Diego Costa starts. Losses usually come against the current top-3 sides, while against teams ranked 10th or lower they remain unbeaten in 11 straight home league games.

Fluminense Results

Fluminense have transformed under new manager Marcão, losing just once in their last eight matches across all competitions. The 6-0 demolition of São Paulo remains their standout performance, but away form is still a concern – only one victory in the last seven road trips. Defensive organisation has markedly improved with Manoel and Thiago Silva partnership.

Fluminense have conceded just two goals in the last five matches and recorded four clean sheets. Away from Maracanã they average only 0.87 goals scored per game this season. The return of key midfielder André from suspension is a massive boost for ball recovery in the middle.

Who will win Wednesday’s Brazil Serie A Betano clash between Gremio and Fluminense?

Gremio > Draw > Fluminense >

Gremio

39%

Draw

20%

Fluminense

41%

Gremio vs Fluminense Head-to-Head (Last 5 matches)

Recent encounters have been incredibly tight: four of the last five matches produced under 2.5 goals. Gremio are unbeaten in the last three home H2H (W2 D1) and kept clean sheets in two of them.

Predicted Lineups for Gremio vs Fluminense Football Match

In this high-stakes Serie A encounter, both Renato Gaúcho and Marcão are expected to field their strongest possible XIs, with Gremio leaning on home familiarity and Fluminense prioritizing defensive solidity to grind out a point. These predicted starting lineups are based on the latest training reports, tactical patterns from the last three matches, and confirmed absences – expect minor tweaks if late fitness tests change anything. We’ve formatted them in a classic 4-2-3-1 setup for clarity, highlighting key threats and rotations.

Grêmio possible starting lineup

Tiago Volpi (GK), Marcos Rocha (DF), Wagner Leonardo (DF), Walter Kannemann (DF), Marlon (DF), Arthur (MF), Dodi (MF), Alysson Edward (MF), Edenilson (MF), Willian (FW), André Henrique (FW).

Fluminense possible starting lineup

Fábio (GK), Samuel Xavier (DF), Thiago Silva (DF), Juan Pablo Freytes (DF), Rene (DF), Gustavo Nonato (MF), Martinelli (MF), Kevin Serna (MF), Luciano Acosta (FW), Yeferson Soteldo (FW), Everaldo (FW).

Key Points to Watch

• Gremio will be without suspended central midfielder Villasanti (second yellow accumulation) – he won 68 % of his duels this season;
• Fluminense captain Thiago Silva is doubtful with muscle fatigue; if he misses, 20-year-old António Carlos partners Manoel – only 42 % aerial duels won in his last three starts;
• Gremio have scored 2+ goals in seven of their last nine home win;
• Fluminense have kept four clean sheets in the last six matches when André starts;
• Arena do Grêmio has seen under 2.5 goals in six of Gremio’s last eight mid-week league games;
• Gremio forward Diego Costa has scored or assisted in five of his last six home appearances;
• Fluminense have failed to score in five of their last eight away league games;
• Expected line-ups: Gremio 4-2-3-1 (no Villasanti Pepê deeper), Fluminense 4-2-3-1 with André-Martineli double pivot.

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Free Tips on Gremio vs Fluminense

Before placing any bet on this crucial Serie A clash, smart money always digs deeper than just the league table. These free tips are built exclusively on verified statistics, historical data and current context of Gremio vs Fluminense – exactly the factors that move the line in the final hours.

• Home vs Away Split is massive here: Gremio have taken 73 % of their total points at Arena do Grêmio this season (2.1 ppm home vs 0.9 ppm away), while Fluminense average only 0.71 goals scored and 1.6 xGA per away game – one of the worst road attacks in the league.
• Recent Head-to-Head trend screams low scoring: four of the last five meetings ended Under 2.5 goals, and the only exception needed extra-time in the cup; in 90 minutes regulation time the teams combined for exactly 1.8 goals per match on average.
• Referee Claus R. factor: he averages 5.8 yellow cards per game in 2025 and has shown 7+ cards in six of his last eight matches involving Gremio; when he officiates Fluminense away, over 4.5 cards landed in 11 of the last 14 games.
• Congested fixture effect: Gremio play their third match in eight days with a heavy pitch at Arena do Grêmio (summer rain forecast 70 % chance of showers in Porto Alegre) – their last three mid-week home games after short rest all finished Under 2.5.
• Player-specific form edge: Diego Costa has been directly involved in 7 goals in his last 8 home starts for Gremio, whereas Fluminense’s main attacking threat Germán Cano has scored only once in his last nine away appearances against top-10 home sides.

Gremio vs Fluminense Match Prediction and Odds

Gremio’s home advantage combined with Fluminense’s chronic away scoring problems makes the hosts clear favourites, but current Gremio vs Fluminense odds around 1.85 for Gremio -0.5 AH still carry value considering the context. Fluminense’s new-found defensive resilience and André’s return will make it tough for Gremio to run away with the game, and recent H2H history screams low-scoring affair. The market overestimates total goals – closing line on over 2.5 has dropped from 2.00 to 1.85 in the last 24 hours, yet sharp money is coming on under.

Our main selection is Under 2.5 Goals at current pricing – both teams rank in the bottom six for big-chance creation in their respective home/away splits, and motivation for a draw is minimal for Gremio but huge for Fluminense to park the bus.

Our Prediction: Gremio 1-0 Fluminense

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