Germany vs Italy on March 23, 2025, at 19:45 GMT+0, the much awaited second leg of the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals sets us against With a capacity of 81,365 and underlined by eminent Polish referee Szymon Marciniak, known for his strict but fair attitude to the game, this vital football battle will take place at the famous Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund.
This game, which is vying for a highly sought-after semifinal slot, represents the last quarter-final stage of the competition. Germany has a modest advantage following a 2-1 first leg triumph at San Siro; yet, Italy’s historical legacy in knockout football and road resilience suggest a fiercely fought struggle with everything still to be done.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
Get ready for a deep dive into the Germany vs Italy prediction today with key insights to guide your betting decisions. This part prepares one to grasp the recent performance of the teams as well as their head-to-history. We will dissect the most recent data to underline trends and possible game-changers. To hone your viewpoint, expect a combination of tactical subtleties and statistical accuracy. Let’s investigate the stakes involved and how these European behemoths are looking for this major collision.
Germany Results
Having had an undefeated Nations League group stage campaign, Germany comes into this game confident. Average three goals per game, Julian Nagelsmann’s squad has showed defensive solidity and offensive flair. Aiming for a semifinal berth on home ground, their current form makes them a formidable threat.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 20.03.25 | UNL | Italy vs Germany | 1-2 | W |
| 19.11.24 | UNL | Hungary vs Germany | 1-1 | D |
| 16.11.24 | UNL | Germany vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | 7-0 | W |
| 14.10.24 | UNL | Germany vs Netherlands | 1-0 | W |
| 11.10.24 | UNL | Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Germany | 1-2 | W |
With four wins and one draw in their last five games, Germany’s current run shows their supremacy. Bosnia-Herzegovina’s 7-0 thumping emphasises their attacking ability; the first leg narrow 2-1 victory over Italy shows they can grind out results against top opposition. Having no losses in this campaign, their home form at Signal Iduna Park is a major advantage. Though their consistency is still outstanding, the drew against Hungary points to occasional fragility. Nagelsmann’s tactical discipline has obviously paid off, preparing them nicely for this second leg.
Italy Results
Under Luciano Spalletti, Italy has had a tactical revamp displaying tenacity in spite of a mixed Nations League campaign. Their major priorities still remain qualifying for the World Cup 2026, but this encounter gives an opportunity to recover pride following a 2-1 home loss to Germany. The defensive changes and attacking possibilities of the Azzurri keep them in contention.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 20.03.25 | UNL | Italy vs Germany | 1-2 | L |
| 17.11.24 | UNL | Italy vs France | 1-3 | L |
| 14.11.24 | UNL | Belgium vs Italy | 0-1 | W |
| 14.10.24 | UNL | Italy vs Israel | 4-1 | W |
| 10.10.24 | UNL | Italy vs Belgium | 2-2 | D |
With two victories, one draw, and two losses in their past five games, Italy’s form has been erratic. Although their attacking ability is shown by their 4-1 triumph against Israel, back-to-back losses to France and Germany expose defensive flaws. Their away victory in Belgium portends well for this journey to Dortmund. Spalletti’s three-man defence has had mixed success; they will have to hone to reverse the first-leg deficit. Against a powerful German side, this game will assess their capacity for under pressure performance.
Germany vs Italy Head-to-Head
Some unforgettable meetings in recent years have come from Germany’s and Italy’s rivalry. Their most recent meeting in the first leg saw Germany edge out a 2-1 triumph, which set the tone for this return game. High-scoring events are reportedly feasible based on historical records, which gives this knockout tie more mystery.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 20.03.25 | UNL | Italy vs Germany | 1-2 |
| 14.06.22 | UNL | Germany vs Italy | 5-2 |
| 04.06.22 | UNL | Italy vs Germany | 1-1 |
| 15.11.16 | FI | Italy vs Germany | 0-0 |
| 02.07.16 | EUR | Germany vs Italy | 1-1 (Pen: 6-5) |
With two of the last five games under their belt including a 5-2 thumping in 2022 Germany has lately had the upper hand. Italy’s previous triumph over Germany comes back further, but their draws reveal competitiveness. With three of five games involving three or more strikes, the pattern leads to goals when these sides meet.
Predicted Football Lineups for Germany vs Italy
Based on current performance, injuries, and tactical preferences, this part lists both teams’ expected starting elevens. These configurations mirror the anticipated decisions Nagelsmann and Spalletti would have taken for this high-stakes football match.
Germany Predicted Lineup: Baumann (GK), Kimmich (DF), Rudiger (DF), Schlotterbeck (DF), Mittelstadt (DF), Goretzka (MF), Gross (MF), Sane (MF), Musiala (MF), Adeyemi (MF), Kleindienst (FW)
Italy Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma (GK), Di Lorenzo (DF), Bastoni (DF), Buongiorno (DF), Bellanova (MF), Barella (MF), Ricci (MF), Tonali (MF), Udogie (MF), Raspadori (FW), Kean (FW)
Unavailable Players
Absences and injuries might determine how this game turns out. Key players absent for both sides are broken out here.
| Team | Player | Reason |
| Germany | Kai Havertz | Injury |
| Germany | Florian Wirtz | Injury |
| Germany | Marc-Andre ter Stegen | Injury |
| Germany | Benjamin Henrichs | Injury |
| Germany | Felix Nmecha | Injury |
| Germany | Aleksandar Pavlovic | Injury |
| Italy | Federico Dimarco | Injury |
| Italy | Mateo Retegui | Injury |
| Italy | Riccardo Calafiori | Fitness Doubt |
Key Factors to Watch
Several factors might tip the balances as Germany and Italy fight for a semifinal place. This is an interesting competition since both sides bring vulnerabilities as well as strengths to the field. These are the important factors to give thought before you start betting.
- Injuries: Germany’s lengthy absentee list, including Havertz and Wirtz, weakens their depth, while Italy miss key attacker Retegui;
- Home Advantage: Germany’s unbeaten run at Signal Iduna Park, backed by a passionate crowd, gives them an edge;
- Form: Germany’s four wins in five matches contrast with Italy’s two losses in their last three;
- Defensive Stability: Italy’s three-man defense has conceded six goals in their last three games, a concern against Germany’s attack;
- Attacking Threat: Germany average three goals per game, while Italy rely on Raspadori and Kean to spark their offense;
- Midfield Battle: Goretzka and Musiala for Germany vs. Barella and Tonali for Italy will dictate the tempo;
- Recent Success: Germany’s first-leg win adds psychological momentum;
- Referee Impact: Marciniak’s strict style could lead to cards, especially in a tense knockout match.
Free Tips on Germany vs Italy
Looking for an edge in this Germany vs Italy clash? This section distills critical betting advice based on stats and trends specific to this matchup. Here are five reworked tips to guide your decisions.
- Study Player Form for Goals: Germany’s Tim Kleindienst has scored three times in his last three international games, making him a prime candidate to find the net again, especially at home;
- Evaluate Pitch and Weather Effects: Signal Iduna Park’s natural grass could favor Germany’s quick passing game, but any March rain might slow play, potentially benefiting Italy’s counter-attacking style;
- Check Recent Fixture Load: Germany’s lighter schedule since November gives them fresher legs compared to Italy, who faced a tough run against France and Belgium;
- Assess Motivation Levels: Germany are driven to reach their first Nations League semifinal, while Italy aim to avenge their first-leg loss and restore pride;
- Monitor Tactical Matchups: Germany’s attacking width could exploit Italy’s depleted wing-back options, especially with Dimarco out and Udogie under pressure.
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Germany vs Italy Match Prediction 2025
Germany hold a slight advantage heading into this second leg, and their form suggests they’ll secure a narrow victory to advance. The 2-1 win in Milan showcased their ability to capitalize on Italy’s defensive lapses, and playing at Signal Iduna Park only strengthens their case. Italy’s attacking options, like Raspadori and Kean, remain potent, but their backline has been shaky, conceding multiple goals in recent matches against top sides. Germany’s depth, even with injuries, and their three-goals-per-game average in this campaign point to another scoring performance. The Germany vs Italy odds likely reflect this, with the hosts favored, though Italy’s knack for big-game resilience keeps it close.
A 2-1 result feels plausible Germany’s home crowd and attacking momentum should edge it, but Italy won’t go down without a fight. Their need to chase the tie could leave them exposed to Germany’s pace on the break, particularly through Musiala and Adeyemi. Spalletti’s tactical tweaks might tighten the defense, but overturning the deficit against a confident German side on their turf looks tough. Expect a competitive match with goals, but Germany’s consistency and home advantage should see them through to the semifinals.
Our Prediction: Germany 2-1 Italy
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Germany to Win | 1.77 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.82 |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | 1.78 |
The match promises excitement, and the Germany vs Italy odds offer solid value for a home win with goals. You can place your bet on Germany vs Italy at bc.game, a trusted platform with competitive odds and a seamless betting experience. Don’t miss out sign up now, explore the markets, and back your prediction for this thrilling UEFA Nations League showdown!
