Gabon vs Ivory Coast prediction 2025. Bottom-of-the-table Gabon face group leaders and defending champions Ivory Coast in a decisive Africa Cup of Nations Group F clash on New Year’s Eve. The Panthers need a miracle win at Stade de Marrakech (capacity 45,240) to keep knockout hopes alive after two straight losses, while the Elephants aim to secure top spot ahead of Cameroon on superior fair play. Kick-off is at 19:00 GMT+0 under mild Marrakech evening conditions clear skies, 15°C, no rain impacting play. No confirmed referee details yet from CAF’s 28-officer pool, but expect strict VAR usage as in prior Group F games (e.g., Cameroon’s opener). This final group stage fixture decides progression: Ivory Coast victory guarantees first; draw likely sends them through second.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
Gabon vs Ivory Coast match prediction points to a low-scoring affair dominated by the champions’ efficiency. Recent form shows Gabon’s desperation after defeats, but Ivory Coast’s defensive record limits openings. Head-to-head trends and hot stats like Gabon’s late scoring (last 8 goals post-40′) set the stage for cautious buildup. Gabon vs Ivory Coast prediction today favors early control by visitors, with insights into xG (Ivory Coast 1.4 avg. per game) and clean sheets revealing edges.
Gabon Results
Gabon entered AFCON unbeaten in five prior (W4 D1) but crumbled with two group losses, conceding 5 goals at 2.5 xGA average while generating just 0.8 xG. Their attack relies on transitions, but poor finishing (2/9 shots on target) and late concessions killed momentum. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s bench impact vs Mozambique offered hope, yet defensive reshuffles exposed vulnerabilities.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Gabon |
| 28/12/2025 | ACN | Gabon vs Mozambique | 2-3 | L |
| 24/12/2025 | ACN | Cameroon vs Gabon | 1-0 | L |
| 13/11/2025 | WCQ | Nigeria vs Gabon | 4-1 | L |
| 14/10/2025 | WCQ | Gabon vs Burundi | 2-0 | W |
| 10/10/2025 | WCQ | Gambia vs Gabon | 3-4 | W |
Two straight ACN defeats mark Gabon’s worst start since 2015, with 5 goals shipped in 180 minutes despite 55% possession vs Cameroon. Late strikes (Aubameyang 45+5′, Moucketou-Moussounda 76′ vs Mozambique) highlight sluggish starts 0 first-half goals in tournament. Pre-tourney WCQ wins showed scoring threat (6 goals in 2), but current 3-match skid (GD -6) erodes confidence. All 9 prior ACN finals one-goal margins add pressure for tight finale.
Ivory Coast Results
Reigning champs started solidly but faltered in conviction, drawing Cameroon after edging Mozambique 4 pts from 2 (GD +1), topping via fair play. Emerse Faé’s 4-2-3-1 yields control (58% possession avg.), low PPDA (9.2 presses), but narrow margins persist (all last 6 ACN wins by 1 goal). Amad Diallo’s form (2 goals) drives transitions.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Ivory Coast |
| 28/12/2025 | ACN | Ivory Coast vs Cameroon | 1-1 | D |
| 24/12/2025 | ACN | Ivory Coast vs Mozambique | 1-0 | W |
| 18/11/2025 | FI | Oman vs Ivory Coast | 0-2 | W |
| 14/11/2025 | FI | Saudi Arabia vs Ivory Coast | 1-0 | L |
| 14/10/2025 | WCQ | Ivory Coast vs Kenya | 3-0 | W |
Unbeaten in 5/6 competitive (W4 D1), but ACN draws expose overreliance on Diallo (goals in both). Just 1/14 games both teams scored, last 6 goals pre-60′, suits half-time leads. Clean sheet vs Mozambique (xG 1.6-0.4) repeated vs Cameroon early, but Tchamadeu equalizer showed fragility. WCQ dominance (13-1 GD last 6) contrasts tournament caution need handsome win for top spot.
Ivory Coast vs Gabon Head-to-Head
Ivory Coast dominate recent clashes, losing once in 9 (W5 D3), all low-scoring (under 2.5 in 4/5). Latest neutral in WCQ; Elephants’ efficiency (9 goals in wins) overwhelms Gabon’s counters.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 09/09/2025 | WCQ | Gabon vs Ivory Coast | 0-0 |
| 07/06/2024 | WCQ | Ivory Coast vs Gabon | 1-0 |
| 05/09/2017 | WCQ | Ivory Coast vs Gabon | 1-2 |
| 02/09/2017 | WCQ | Gabon vs Ivory Coast | 0-3 |
| 04/06/2016 | FI | Ivory Coast vs Gabon | 2-1 |
Ivory Coast unbeaten in 4/5 (W3 D1), scoring 7-3; Gabon 1 win (2017). Draws low-output (3 total goals); hosts win margins slim. Trends: Ivory Coast 80% clean sheets, goals early (pre-60′ in recent).
Gabon vs Ivory Coast Predicted Starting Lineups
Lineups are subject to late changes based on final training sessions and tactical decisions by coaches Thierry Mouyouma (Gabon) and Emerse Faé (Ivory Coast). These are the most likely starting XIs ahead of this crucial Group F decider, drawn from recent tournament performances and reliable previews. Both teams enter with full squads available for selection.
Gabon possible starting lineup
Mbaba (GK); Onfia (DF), Moucketou-Moussounda (DF), Lemina (DF), Ekomie (DF); Kanga (MF), N’Dong (MF); Babicka (MF), Poko (FW), Bouanga (FW); Aubameyang (FW)
Ivory Coast possible starting lineup
Y. Fofana (GK); Doue (DF), Kossounou (DF), Ndicka (DF), Konan (DF); Kessie (MF), Sangare (MF), S. Fofana (MF); Diallo (FW), Bayo (FW), Zaha (FW)
Key Match Factors
Gabon fights elimination (5th group exit in 7 ACN), but Ivory Coast’s motivation for top spot (easier knockouts) trumps. No fresh injuries for either Gabon full squad post-Mozambique; Ivory Coast clean bill (Haller out pre-tourney, but others fit). Form collapses for Panthers (3-loss streak, first Mozambique defeat ever); Elephants resilient (5/6 ACN wins).
- Gabon’s last 8 goals after 40′ starts slow (0 HT goals ACN), vulnerable early (Cameroon 6′, Mozambique 37′).
- Ivory Coast 1/14 both teams score; xG dominance (1.4/game), PPDA 9.2 stifles counters.
- Panthers 9/9 ACN finals ≤1-goal margins; defense leaky (5 conceded/2 games, 2.5 xGA).
- Aubameyang (scored vs Moz) key for Gabon (4 career intl goals), but 36yo post-injury; Diallo (2 ACN goals) thrives vs low blocks.
- H2H Ivory Coast edge (W5/9); last 6 CI goals pre-60′ expect opener ~49′ like vs Moz.
- No suspensions; Faé rotates minimally (Zaha/Diomande push); Gabon’s Ecuele Manga anchors shaky backline.
- Motivation: Gabon pride/replication 2021 QF run; CI handsome win needed (Moz 3pts after beating Gabon).
- Hot streak: Gabon 0 wins vs top-20 FIFA ACN foes; CI 5/6 tournament wins.
Free Tips on Gabon vs Ivory Coast
Before placing bets on this decisive Group F encounter at the Africa Cup of Nations, consider these practical insights drawn from historical data, current trends, and external factors. Statistics from previous matches and head-to-head meetings often reveal patterns in productivity and dominance, helping identify value in the markets. For Gabon vs Ivory Coast, focusing on these elements can sharpen your decision-making beyond basic form guides.
- Head-to-Head Dominance: Ivory Coast have lost just one of their last nine encounters with Gabon (W5 D3), with four of the previous five meetings producing under 2.5 goals back low-scoring outcomes given the Elephants’ recent defensive solidity.
- Player Form in Key Positions: Amad Diallo has scored in both of Ivory Coast’s group games, thriving in transitions against low blocks; his anytime scorer potential stands out, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s late impacts (Gabon’s last eight goals post-40′) suggest value in second-half markets.
- Weather and Pitch Conditions: Expect mild, dry conditions in Marrakech on New Year’s Eve (around 15°C, clear skies), with the Stade de Marrakech’s high-quality natural grass surface favoring quick, technical play suited to Ivory Coast’s possession-based style over Gabon’s counter-reliant approach.
- Recent Fixture Congestion and Fatigue: Both teams have played two intense group matches in a short span; Ivory Coast’s deeper squad allows better rotation, potentially giving them an edge in the latter stages against a Gabon side showing signs of defensive tiredness (five goals conceded in two games).
- Referee Tendencies: CAF referees in this tournament have maintained disciplined card counts in similar high-stakes games avoid overbacking cards here, as the focus remains on flow rather than interruptions, aligning with both teams’ low foul averages in the group stage.
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Gabon vs Ivory Coast Match Prediction
Gabon vs Ivory Coast betting tips lean Ivory Coast win (65% prob.), exploiting Gabon’s skid 0 pts, -3 GD, first Moz loss in ACN history. Elephants’ title defense (4pts, +1 GD) demands control: 58% possession, 1.4 xG, 1 BTTS/14 games model 1-0/2-0 (60% under 2.5). Gabon vs Ivory Coast odds show visitors 1.50-1.60 (implied 62-66%), reflecting H2H (unbeaten 4/5), form (W3/5 competitive), low concessions (0.4 xGA ACN). Gabon’s desperation yields late push (8/8 goals >40′), but CI’s PPDA/clean sheets (5/6 ACN) neutralize Aubameyang threat (2 vs Moz) contained by Ndicka/Kossounou aerial wins (65%). No injuries boost Faé’s 4-2-3-1 (Diallo/Kessie dictating); Gabon’s 4-2-3-1 transitions blunt (0.8 xG). Scenarios: CI lead HT/FT (55%, goals pre-60′); Gabon collapse like vs Cam (57% poss., 0 goals). Draw risk (20%, 0-0 WCQ precedent), but CI motivation (top vs Mozambican tiebreaker) prevails ROI +8% on similar faves (Opta). Precise: Ivory Coast 2-0 (18% sim prob., xG adj.), securing Group F.
Our Prediction: Gabon 0-2 Ivory Coast
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Winner | Ivory Coast | 1.47 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.63 |
| Both Teams to Score | No | 1.53 |
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