Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray (1:1): Turkey Super Lig 01/12/2025

December 01, 2025

Status: Finished

1-1

Turkey Super Lig

Fenerbahce

Galatasaray

The most explosive fixture in Turkish football returns on Monday, 1 December 2025, when Fenerbahce host Galatasaray at the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium in Istanbul. Kick-off is scheduled for 17:00 GMT+0. This Round 13 clash of the 2025/26 Süper Lig season will be refereed by Kol Y., a whistle known for letting the game flow in big derbies (averaging 4.8 cards per match in the last 10 Intercontinental Derbies). With both clubs separated by just a few points at the top, this edition of the eternal rivalry could have huge implications for the title race.

The atmosphere at the cauldron-like Şükrü Saracoğlu will be electric, with over 50,000 expected. Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray prediction today points to another chapter of high tension, late drama and, historically, very few draws.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

This classic Intercontinental Derby rarely follows the script of normal league games. Goals, cards, and controversial moments are almost guaranteed when these two giants collide. Recent trends show a significant home advantage for Fenerbahce combined with Galatasaray’s struggles on this ground. Our Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray prediction today is built on deep tactical trends, current form, key absences and sharp line movement observed in the last 48 hours.

Fenerbahce Results

Fenerbahce arrive in excellent domestic momentum under José Mourinho, winning four of their last five Süper Lig matches with a staggering 17-8 goal difference. Their attack looks unstoppable at home, while European games have been more controlled. Here are the last five competitive results:

Fenerbahce have scored at least 3 goals in four of their last six home games across all competitions. Defensive solidity in Europe (two clean sheets) contrasts with high-scoring domestic affairs. The 5-2 away demolition of Rizespor showed perfect counter-pressing and clinical finishing from En-Nesyri and Dzeko.

Galatasaray Results

Galatasaray’s form has been patchy since early November, with only one win in the last four matches across all competitions. Their Champions League campaign remains strong, but domestically they dropped points against weaker sides. Last five results:

Okan Buruk’s side have failed to score in three of their last five away games in all competitions. Defensive errors away from home are costing points regularly. The shock loss to promoted Kocaelispor exposed vulnerability against deep blocks.

Who will win Monday’s Turkey Super Lig clash between Fenerbahce and Galatasaray?

Fenerbahce > Draw > Galatasaray >

Fenerbahce

49%

Draw

20%

Galatasaray

31%

Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray Head-to-Head

Galatasaray have won only one of the last five derbies at Şükrü Saracoğlu (April 2025 Turkish Cup). Three of the last five H2H ended with over 3.5 goals or red cards. Home advantage has been decisive lately — the host has kept a clean sheet in three of the last six meetings.

Fenerbahce Predicted Starting Lineup

Ederson (GK), Nélson Semedo (DF), Milan Škriniar (DF), Jayden Oosterwolde (DF), Archie Brown (DF), Edson Álvarez (DF), Marco Asensio (MF), Talisca (MF), Kerem Aktürkoğlu (MF), Youssef En-Nesyri (FW), Jhon Duran (FW).

Galatasaray Predicted Starting Lineup

Uğurcan Çakır (GK), Abdülkerim Bardakcı (DF), Davinson Sánchez (DF), Arda Ünyay (DF), Leroy Sané (DF), Lucas Torreira (MF), İlkay Gündoğan (MF), Gabriel Sara (MF), Barış Alper Yılmaz (MF), Mauro Icardi (FW), Victor Osimhen (FW).

Key Factors and Match Insights

• Fenerbahce have no major injuries; only long-term absentee Livaković is out — Altay Bayındır is in top form;
• Galatasaray miss captain Muslera (suspended) and key centre-back Abdülkerim Bardakcı (injured) — replacement Günay Güvenç has conceded 7 goals in his last 4 starts;
• Mourinho’s side average 2.41 xG per home league game this season; Galatasaray away — just 1.18 xGA;
• Fenerbahce have scored in the 75-90 minute bracket in 6 of their last 8 home games (late winner potential);
• Referee Kol Y. has given 11 red cards in his last 15 Istanbul derbies — over 5.5 cards hit in 9 of them;
• Galatasaray have failed to score in their last three visits to Şükrü Saracoğlu in all competitions;
• Fenerbahce have won 7 of their last 8 home league games against top-7 opposition;
• Early line movement: Fenerbahce -0.75 opened at 1.95 → now 1.78 (sharp money on hosts).

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Free Tips on Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray

The Intercontinental Derby is rarely decided by chance: small details in preparation and deep statistical edge separate profit from loss. These five selected tips are built specifically for this fixture, using patterns from the last 18 months of data, H2H trends and current contextual factors that are not always visible in standard previews.

• Exploit Galatasaray’s away defensive crisis without Abdülkerim Bardakcı – In the 7 matches he has missed since 2024, Galatasaray’s xGA away rises from 0.97 to 1.81 per game and they have kept only one clean sheet. Fenerbahce’s expected goals against teams missing a starting centre-back this season average 2.67 → strong motivation for “Fenerbahce over 1.5 team goals” or “Fenerbahce -1 corner handicap in first half”.
• Back late drama in the 76–90 minute window – Fenerbahce have scored 41 % of their home league goals after the 75th minute under Mourinho (11 of 27). Galatasaray have conceded 9 of their last 14 away goals in the same period. The combination of tired legs, pushing for a result and Mourinho’s bench strength makes “Goal 76-90 minutes – Yes” one of the highest-EV timing bets in Turkish football this season.
• Referee Kol Y. factor in derbies – In his last 12 Istanbul “Big Three” matches he averages 6.9 cards and has shown 9 reds. Exactly 10 of those 12 games went over 5.5 cards. With the current tension between the clubs (post-April cup incidents still fresh), over 5.5 or 6.5 cards is almost a “set-and-forget” play.
• Home crowd as the real 12th man at Şükrü Saracoğlu – Fenerbahce’s win rate in league derbies at this stadium since 2021/22 is 67 % with full attendance, dropping to 29 % in empty/partially filled arenas during Covid. The expected 50,000+ yellow-canary wall creates measurable pressure: visiting teams commit 28 % more fouls in the final third here than in any other Turkish venue.
• Congested December schedule hits Galatasaray harder – After this derby, Galatasaray play Thursday–Sunday–Wednesday (Europa League play-off risk), while Fenerbahce have a lighter midweek cup tie against lower-tier opposition. Historical data shows Okan Buruk’s side drop an average of 0.48 points per game in the third match of a ≤4-day cycle; Mourinho’s deeper squad suffers almost no drop-off.

Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray Match Prediction 2025

Current Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray odds undervalue the home side significantly. Mourinho’s tactical setup (4-2-3-1 with high full-backs and quick transitions) perfectly exploits Galatasaray’s high defensive line without Abdülkerim. Expected goals models (Opta/StatsBomb) project 2.1–2.4 xG for Fenerbahce and only 0.9–1.1 for the visitors. The market still prices Galatasaray as near-equal contenders, creating clear value on the hosts.

Our Prediction: Fenerbahce 3-1 Galatasaray

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