FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami (0:4): MLS 23/11/2025

November 23, 2025

Status: Finished

0-4

MLS

FC Cincinnati

Inter Miami

The Eastern Conference semifinal of the 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs will take place on November 23, 2025, at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. Kick-off is scheduled for 22:00 GMT+0. This single-leg quarter-final will decide which team advances to the Conference Final, with FC Cincinnati enjoying home-field advantage after finishing higher in the regular season standings.

No official referee appointment has been announced yet, but MLS usually assigns experienced officials for knockout games of this magnitude. Expect a high-profile crew, possibly led by Ismail Elfath or Ted Unkel.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

The FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami prediction today looks like one of the most intriguing ties of the entire playoff bracket. Both clubs needed all three games in the first round, showing resilience but also defensive vulnerabilities. Recent form, historical trends at TQL Stadium, and the presence of Lionel Messi make this encounter a bettor’s paradise. Let’s dive into the numbers that really matter.

FC Cincinnati Results

Cincinnati booked their spot in the semifinals after a dramatic series against Columbus Crew, winning the decider 2-1 at home. Pat Noonan’s side has been rock-solid at TQL Stadium throughout 2025 and remains one of the hardest teams to beat on their own turf. Here are their last five competitive matches:

Four win in the last five matches underline Cincinnati’s excellent momentum heading into this semifinal. They have kept clean sheets in three of those victories and look very tough to break down at home. The heavy 4-0 loss in Columbus remains the only real blemish in an otherwise impressive recent run.

Inter Miami Results

Inter Miami demolished Nashville 4-0 in the series decider and arrive in Cincinnati full of confidence. Gerardo Martino’s men have been scoring for fun, with Messi, Suárez and company clicking at the perfect moment. Here are their last five competitive games:

Five of the last six matches have ended in victory, and Miami have scored an astonishing 22 goals during that stretch. Their only defeat came away at Nashville, proving they are not invincible on the road. Still, the attacking firepower they possess is unmatched in the league right now.

Who will win Sunday’s MLS clash between FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami?

FC Cincinnati > Draw > Inter Miami >

FC Cincinnati

35%

Draw

20%

Inter Miami

45%

FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Head-to-Head

Cincinnati have won three of the last five H2H meetings, including two absolute thrashings (6-1 and 3-0) at TQL Stadium. Inter Miami’s only success in this period came at home, while the most recent clash in July ended goalless. Home advantage has been decisive — Cincinnati are unbeaten in the last four home games against Miami (W3 D1).

Predicted Starting Lineups: FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami

In the high-stakes Eastern Conference semifinal of the 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs, both teams are expected to field their strongest possible XIs to secure a spot in the Conference Final. These predicted lineups are based on recent rotations, injury updates, and tactical preferences from the first round, with FC Cincinnati leaning on home strength and Inter Miami unleashing their star-powered attack. Note that official confirmations come closer to kick-off, but here’s how the sides could line up in a potential 4-3-3 for both.

FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:

Celentano (GK); Hadebe (DF), Robinson (DF), Engel (DF); Powell (DF), Gidi (MF), Bucha (MF), Orellano (MF); Evander (MF); Brenner (FW), Denkey (FW)

Inter Miami possible starting lineup:

Rios (GK); Fray (DF), Falcon (DF), Allen (DF), Alba (MF); Busquets (MF), De Paul (MF); Allende (MF), Messi (MF), Rodriguez (FW); Suarez (FW)

Key Match Facts & Injury News

• FC Cincinnati miss centre-back Matt Miazga (leg injury) and full-back Bradley Smith (muscle); Miles Robinson and Teenage Hadebe will anchor the defence;
• Inter Miami have a fully fit squad — Messi, Suárez, Alba, Busquets all available and fresh after rotation in the regular season finale;
• Cincinnati have won 4 of their last 5 home league games against Inter Miami;
• Inter Miami have scored in each of their last 11 MLS matches this season;
• Only 2 of the last 10 H2H games saw both teams score in the second half;
• Cincinnati kept a clean sheet in the last meeting at TQL Stadium (3-0 win in July);
• Miami average 2.4 goals scored per game this season — best attack in MLS;
• Cincinnati conceded only 45 goals in 37 regular-season games (joint 8th-best defence);
• TQL Stadium has seen Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Cincinnati’s last 10 playoff/home knockout games;
• Average total goals in Cincinnati home H2H vs Miami: 3.6.

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Free Tips on FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami

Before placing any bet on this MLS Eastern Conference semifinal, here are five data-driven angles that sharp bettors are already exploiting. These tips are built purely on verifiable statistics from the 2025 season, recent playoff games and historical meetings between the two sides. Use them to find real value against the opening lines.

• Home vs Away split is massive here – Cincinnati won 73% of their home games in 2025 and kept 11 clean sheets at TQL Stadium; Inter Miami, despite the star names, won only 38% of away regular-season matches and conceded 1.9 goals per game on the road in the playoffs so far.
• Head-to-Head trend at this venue screams low-scoring – The last three competitive meetings at TQL Stadium produced exactly 3, 7 and 3 goals respectively, but two of them stayed Under 3.5, and Cincinnati scored at least twice in each while keeping a clean sheet in the most recent one (3-0 in July).
• Second-half goals pattern in H2H – In 8 of the last 10 meetings between these clubs, at least one team failed to score after the break; only twice did both teams find the net in the second half → strong angle for “2nd half under 1.5 goals” or “BTTS – No in 2nd half”.
• Inter Miami’s away defensive fragility under pressure – When Miami played away against the current top-6 Eastern teams in 2025 (including playoffs), they conceded 2+ goals in 7 out of 9 matches and lost the xG battle in 6 of them.
• Set-piece threat from the hosts – Cincinnati ranked 3rd in MLS for goals from dead-ball situations this season (21) and already scored from two corners against Columbus in the previous round; Miami conceded the joint-most goals from set plays on the road (14).

FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Match Prediction 2025

This is the classic “unstoppable force vs immovable object” playoff battle. Inter Miami boast the best attack in the league and are riding a wave of confidence, but Cincinnati at TQL Stadium are a completely different animal — especially against this opponent. The absence of Miazga is a blow, yet Robinson-Hadebe partnership looked solid in the series against Columbus, and Pat Noonan knows exactly how to neutralise Miami’s transitions. History strongly favours the hosts: they have won the last two home games against Miami by a combined 9-1 scoreline. Miami’s away defensive record (58 goals conceded in the regular season) remains a concern, and one early goal could force them into a chaotic open game they don’t want.

The FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami odds currently undervalue the home side in our opinion. We expect a tight, tactical first half followed by Cincinnati capitalising on set-pieces and counter-attacks in the second. Back the Orange and Blue to reach the Conference Final.

Our Prediction: FC Cincinnati 1-2 Inter Miami

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