Equatorial Guinea vs Algeria (1:3): Africa Cup of Nations 31/12/2025

December 31, 2025

Status: Finished

1-3

Africa Cup of Nations

Equatorial Guinea

Algeria

The final Group E clash at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations pits already-eliminated Equatorial Guinea against table-toppers Algeria, who have secured first place and a spot in the last 16. This encounter offers the National Thunder a chance to restore some pride before heading home, while the Desert Foxes aim to complete a perfect group stage with another clean sheet.

The match kicks off at 16:00 GMT on Wednesday, December 31, 2025, at the Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan in Rabat, Morocco – the same venue where Algeria secured their previous victories in this tournament. No official referee appointment has been confirmed yet for this fixture, but CAF typically announces officials closer to kick-off. As a dead rubber for Algeria in terms of progression, expect potential rotation from Vladimir Petković, though the 2019 champions will still field a competitive side on a pitch that has favoured their controlled style so far.

Betting Tips and Match Insights

As we dive deeper into this Group E finale, the focus shifts to recent performances and historical trends that could shape the outcome. Equatorial Guinea vs Algeria prediction today points towards a controlled victory for the favourites, given the stark contrast in form and motivation levels.

Algeria’s unbeaten run and defensive solidity make them heavy favourites. Equatorial Guinea’s struggles in front of goal suggest another low-scoring affair. Head-to-head data reinforces Algeria’s dominance in recent years. Motivation differs greatly – Algeria can experiment, while Equatorial Guinea play for pride only. Advanced metrics show Algeria’s superiority in expected goals and possession dominance throughout the group stage.

Equatorial Guinea Results

Equatorial Guinea arrived in Morocco with hopes of repeating their knockout appearances from the last two AFCON tournaments, but back-to-back one-goal defeats have sealed their first-ever group-stage exit. Late concessions have been a recurring theme, highlighting defensive fragility under pressure. The National Thunder have managed just one goal across their last three matches dating back to November.

Three consecutive defeats across all competitions have exposed Equatorial Guinea’s vulnerabilities, particularly in the final minutes of matches. They have scored in only one of their last five games, underscoring their blunt attack. Home advantage is absent here, with both group games played on neutral soil in Morocco. The single win came away against Kenya, but recent form shows regression in both creation and conversion. Conceding late goals in both AFCON matches has cost them dearly, turning potential points into none.

Algeria Results

Algeria have been impeccable in Group E, securing maximum points without conceding a single goal – a testament to their defensive organisation and clinical finishing. Riyad Mahrez has led the charge upfront, while the backline has looked impenetrable. Their unbeaten streak inside 90 minutes now stretches to 18 games.

Algeria have won four of their last five matches, with the only blemish a draw in the Arab Cup. Clean sheets in both AFCON games highlight their defensive strength under Petković. Scoring exactly four goals across the two tournament wins shows efficiency rather than extravagance. Away form remains strong, as evidenced by the thrashing of Bahrain. Momentum is firmly with the Desert Foxes as they head into the knockouts as group winners.

Who will win Wednesday Africa Cup of Nations clash between Equatorial Guinea and Algeria?

Equatorial Guinea > Draw > Algeria >

Equatorial Guinea

19%

Draw

28%

Algeria

53%

Head-to-Head: Equatorial Guinea vs Algeria

These sides have met sparingly, but recent encounters have favoured Algeria heavily, with Equatorial Guinea failing to score in the last two. All three most recent H2H fixtures were goalless at half-time, pointing to cautious openings. The 2022 upset remains Equatorial Guinea’s only win in this fixture.

Algeria have dominated recent meetings, keeping clean sheets in the last two and winning convincingly at home. Equatorial Guinea’s lone victory came in the 2022 AFCON group stage, shocking the then-defending champions. No encounter has produced more than two goals since 1996, reinforcing expectations of a low-total game.

Equatorial Guinea vs Algeria Predicted Starting Lineups

Lineups are subject to change based on final team news, but with Algeria already qualified and likely to rotate ahead of the knockout stage, while Equatorial Guinea are eliminated and dealing with injuries, expect adjustments from both coaches. Official confirmations typically come an hour before kick-off, but here are the most probable starting XIs based on recent performances, press conferences, and reported doubts.

Equatorial Guinea possible starting lineup:

Owono (GK) Akapo (DF) Orozco (DF) Coco (DF) Anieboh (DF) Mascarell (MF) Ganet (MF) Machín (MF) Salvador (MF) Miranda (FW) Nsue (FW)

Algeria possible starting lineup:

Mandrea (GK) Meziani (DF) Bensebaini (DF) Mandi (DF) Hadjam (DF) Boudaoui (MF) Bennacer (MF) Bounedjah (MF) Maza (MF) Kebbal (MF) Gouiri (FW)

Injured and Questionable Players

Both teams enter this final group fixture carrying knocks from previous matches, which could force further changes – particularly for Algeria, who may prioritise player recovery with progression secured. Equatorial Guinea’s issues are more pressing given their limited squad depth.

Key Match Insights and Factors

With Algeria already qualified and Equatorial Guinea eliminated, several underlying elements will influence this dead-rubber fixture. Form disparities, injuries, and tactical approaches all point to a straightforward away win. Here are the critical points to watch:

• Algeria’s defence has not conceded in 180 minutes of AFCON action, extending an eight-game streak without trailing first;
• Riyad Mahrez has scored four goals in his last three internationals, including in both group games so far;
• Equatorial Guinea doubts over midfielders Santiago Eneme and Pedro Obiang after injuries against Sudan; Pablo Ganet likely to step in;
• Algeria monitoring Jaouen Hadjam and Samir Chergui – expect rotation to manage knocks ahead of the last 16;
• National Thunder have scored two or more goals only twice in their last 15 matches;
• All three H2H since 2022 have been 0-0 at half-time, suggesting a slow start;
• Algeria have received fewer cards than opponents in each of their last three games, indicating disciplined play;
• Late goals plagued Equatorial Guinea in both defeats; fatigue could play a role with a short turnaround;
• Petković may rest stars like Mahrez or Bennacer, but depth remains strong for a comfortable win.

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Free Tips on Equatorial Guinea vs Algeria

For bettors looking at this Group E closer on December 31, these free tips draw directly from historical data, recent performances, and matchup specifics to highlight potential value opportunities. While Algeria dominate the narrative, statistical trends from past encounters and current campaigns offer nuanced angles beyond the obvious favourite. Understanding these patterns can help identify edges in a fixture where goals have historically been scarce.

• Low productivity in direct clashes: The last three head-to-head meetings produced just two goals in total (one 2-0 win for Algeria, one 0-0 draw, and one 0-1 for Equatorial Guinea in 2022), with all finishing under 2.5 goals and often goalless at half-time.
• Algeria’s defensive dominance: The Desert Foxes have kept clean sheets in both group games so far and in their last two H2H against Equatorial Guinea, while not conceding the opening goal in any of their last eight matches overall.
• Equatorial Guinea’s scoring drought: The National Thunder have netted only once in their last three games and failed to score in the most recent two encounters with Algeria, having managed 2+ goals just twice in their previous 15 fixtures.
• Disciplined card trends: Algeria have received fewer yellow cards than their opponents in each of the last three matches, suggesting a controlled approach that could keep bookings low in a low-stakes game for them.
• Potential for rotation and reduced intensity: With top spot secured, Algeria are likely to rest key players ahead of the knockout stage, which historically leads to fewer goals and a more conservative performance in dead-rubber group finales.

Equatorial Guinea vs Algeria Match Prediction 2025

Algeria enter as overwhelming favourites, having dispatched stronger opposition in Burkina Faso and Sudan without conceding, while Equatorial Guinea’s campaign has crumbled with defensive lapses and minimal attacking threat. Even with potential rotation, the Desert Foxes’ superior squad depth and current momentum should see them extend their unbeaten run and maintain a clean sheet. Equatorial Guinea vs Algeria odds reflect this dominance, with the away win priced attractively given Algeria’s flawless group record and Equatorial Guinea’s inability to score against them in recent qualifiers.

We predict a 2-0 victory for Algeria, backed by their defensive solidity (no goals conceded in the group) and Mahrez’s hot streak upfront. The value lies in Algeria winning to nil, as Equatorial Guinea have managed just one goal in their last three games and failed to breach Algeria in the last two H2H. Rotation won’t derail them against a side already on the plane home – expect a professional performance to cap a perfect group stage. 

Our Prediction: Equatorial Guinea 0-2 Algeria

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