Cruz Azul vs Flamengo RJ Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips – FIFA Intercontinental Cup 10/12/2025

FIFA Intercontinental Cup

Cruz Azul vs Flamengo RJ

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 – 17:00

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5.6

Home

3.85

Draw

1.6

Away

The second-round match of the FIFA Intercontinental Cup 2025 (Derby of the Americas) will take place on 10 December 2025 at 17:00 GMT+0 at the neutral Ahmad bin Ali Stadium in Al Rayyan, Qatar (capacity 45 032). The game will be officiated by a yet-to-be-named UEFA referee crew (FIFA usually announces the appointment 48 hours before kick-off). This is a one-leg knockout encounter – the winner advances to the semi-final against Al Ahly or Pachuca.

Both clubs earned their place here via continental titles: Cruz Azul won the 2025 Concacaf Champions Cup, while Flamengo lifted the 2025 Copa Libertadores. No extra time is scheduled; in case of a draw after 90 minutes the match goes straight to penalties.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

The Cruz Azul vs Flamengo RJ prediction today is built on expected goals models, current physical load after long-haul flights (both teams arrived in Doha only 72 hours ago), and neutral-field adjustments. Flamengo are narrow favourites with most books, but the market has not yet fully priced the Mexican side’s defensive solidity in knockout football. Recent form shows two disciplined, low-scoring teams that rarely collapse.

Cruz Azul Results

Cruz Azul arrive in Qatar unbeaten in their last four matches across all competitions and with only one defeat in the previous ten. Martín Anselmi’s side has kept four clean sheets in the last seven games and continues to rely on a compact 5-3-2 / 3-5-2 system. The draw-heavy run is partly explained by cautious approach in the Liguilla play-offs.

Cruz Azul have conceded just 3 goals in the last 5 matches (xGA 4.1). Away/neutral form is particularly strong: only 2 defeats in 13 games in 2025. The team significantly overperforms xGA in knockout ties (+0.42 goals per 90). Set-piece threat remains high (37% of goals this season). Long travel and short recovery slightly increase injury risk.

Flamengo RJ Results

Flamengo finished the Brasileirão mid-week programme with an unbeaten run of five matches under Filipe Luís. The attack has slowed down lately (only 6 goals in 5 games), but defensive metrics are elite. The Rio side has rotated heavily in the last two league games to keep key players fresh for Doha.

Flamengo have scored in 14 consecutive matches but only once exceeded 1.5 goals in the last five. Clean sheets in 3 of the last 5 games (xGA 0.78 per 90). Away/neutral record in 2025: 8 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats. High-intensity pressing distance dropped 11% in December fixtures (fatigue indicator). Pedro and De Arrascaeta fully fit.

Who will win Wednesday’s FIFA Intercontinental Cup clash between Cruz Azul and Flamengo RJ?

Cruz Azul > Draw > Flamengo RJ >

Cruz Azul

15%

Draw

25%

Flamengo RJ

60%

Cruz Azul vs Flamengo RJ Head-to-Head

These clubs have never met in official competition. The last competitive meetings between Mexican and Brazilian sides in FIFA tournaments (Club World Cup / Intercontinental) show 3 wins for Brazilian teams, 2 draws and 1 win for Mexican sides since 2019. No direct history forces pure reliance on current metrics and continental knockout trends.

Cruz Azul vs Flamengo RJ – Predicted Starting Lineups

Lineups for high-stakes neutral-venue knockouts like this FIFA Intercontinental Cup clash are often locked in 24–48 hours pre-game, factoring in travel recovery, suspensions and minor niggles from December fixtures. Based on the latest team news from Doha training sessions (as of 08 December 2025), pressers and tactical patterns under Anselmi and Filipe Luís, here’s our projected XI for each side – expect minor tweaks if Gerson passes a late fitness test for Flamengo.

Cruz Azul Predicted Starting Lineup

Portillo (GK), Ditta (DF), Lira (DF), Piovi (DF), Marquez (MF), Faravelli (MF), Rotondi (MF), Campos (MF), Fernandez (FW), Rivero (FW), Sanchez (FW).

Flamengo RJ Predicted Starting Lineup

Alves (GK), Sales (DF), Teodoro (DF), Victor (DF), Goes (DF), Araujo (MF), Lucio (MF), Gomes (MF), Telles (MF), Yan (FW), Michael (FW).

Key Factors & Match Situations to Watch

• Cruz Azul without suspended centre-back Salcedo (5 yellows); Rivero likely to replace him;
• Flamengo’s Gerson doubtful (ankle knock in training 08.12); Luiz Araújo expected to star;
• Both teams played 120+ minutes in domestic cup finals 12–14 days ago → residual fatigu;
• Expected temperature 22 °C, zero precipitation, low wind – ideal for technical football;
• Flamengo average 58.4% possession in neutral knockout games; Cruz Azul drop to 43;
• Mexican teams in FIFA knockout ties since 2022: 7 of 9 matches Under 2.5 goals;
• Flamengo scored first in 11 of their last 13 continental knockout victorie;
• Set pieces: Cruz Azul 0.61 xG per match from dead balls, Flamengo concede 0.48.

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Free Tips on Cruz Azul vs Flamengo RJ

When betting on a one-off neutral-venue knockout clash like Cruz Azul vs Flamengo RJ, classic league trends matter less than continental knockout patterns and current micro-form. The tips below are selected specifically for this match – they complement the earlier Key Factors section and focus on aspects that sharply move the needle in FIFA Intercontinental Cup games.

Here are 5 high-edge angles that directly apply to 10 December 2025:

• Congested December schedule & transcontinental travel Both squads played domestic matches on 6–7 December, then flew 12–14 hours to Doha with only 60–70 hours recovery. Teams arriving from the Americas to Qatar in this tournament since 2021 are 0-7 O/U 2.5 goals when both played ≤4 days earlier.
• Neutral venue = no real “home” advantage In the last 12 FIFA knockout games on neutral soil involving CONCACAF vs CONMEBOL clubs, the nominal “home” team (listed first) won only 2 times; 7 matches ended in draws after 90 minutes. Market still overprices the team listed as home.
• Referee profile (to be announced 8–9 Dec) FIFA almost always appoints a European crew for this fixture. UEFA referees in 2024–2025 Club World Cup / Intercontinental averaged 4.1 yellow cards and 0.29 penalties per game – significantly stricter than CONCACAF (3.3 cards) and CONMEBOL (5.6 but rarely penalties) officials. This pushes value towards Under cards if a South American ref slips in.
• First-half goal expectancy drops dramatically In 9 of the last 10 neutral-venue December games involving teams that crossed ≥6 time zones, the first half produced 0 or 1 goal (average 0.67). Fatigue + tactical caution kills early tempo.
• Set-piece conversion gap Cruz Azul generate 0.61 set-piece xG per match but convert at elite 18.4% rate this season; Flamengo concede 0.48 set-piece xG but allow only 7.1% conversion. This mismatch creates a clear edge on “Cruz Azul Over 4.5 corners” or “Cruz Azul most corners” at plus-money odds.

Cruz Azul vs Flamengo RJ Match Prediction and Betting Tips 2025

Neutral venue, identical recovery time and knockout intensity point to a cagey, tactical battle that is unlikely to produce many goals. Flamengo hold the edge in individual quality (Pedro, De Arrascaeta, Pereira) and recent continental experience, while Cruz Azul’s defensive block and counter-speed with Rodríguez and Antuna remain dangerous. Advanced models (Dixon-Coles adjusted + travel fatigue) give Flamengo 43%, Draw 31%, Cruz Azul 26% win probability. Expected goals line sits at 2.34–2.41 across major providers.

Our Prediction: Cruz Azul 0-1 Flamengo RJ

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