The eagerly anticipated UEFA Nations League quarter-final first leg between Croatia and France is set to kick off on March 20, 2025, at 19:45 GMT+0. The match will take place at Stadion Poljud in Split, Croatia, a venue known for its passionate home support, with no specific referee details available yet for this fixture, though UEFA typically assigns top-tier officials for such high-stakes encounters.
This clash marks the opening chapter of a two-legged tie in the knockout stage of the UEFA Nations League, with the winner advancing to face either the Netherlands or Spain in the semi-finals in June. Both teams bring contrasting narratives to the table: Croatia limped into the quarter-finals with a shaky end to their group stage, while France stormed through as Group A2 leaders with a dominant away record, setting the stage for a tactical showdown in Split.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
For those looking to dive into the Croatia vs France prediction today, this section sets the stage for what promises to be a fiercely contested battle. The upcoming analysis of recent form and head-to-head encounters will provide critical insights for informed betting decisions. Historical data suggests France hold a psychological edge, but Croatia’s resilience at home cannot be overlooked. Expect a detailed breakdown of key trends and performances to guide your approach. Let’s explore the numbers behind both teams to sharpen your perspective.
Croatia Results
Croatia’s journey to the quarter-finals has been a mixed bag, with their campaign marked by resilience rather than dominance. Zlatko Dalić’s men secured second place in Group A1 despite a winless run in their final three matches, relying on earlier points to progress. Their home form, however, offers a glimmer of hope as they prepare to host France.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 19/11/24 | UNL | Croatia vs Portugal | 1-1 | D |
| 16/11/24 | UNL | Scotland vs Croatia | 1-0 | L |
| 14/10/24 | UNL | Poland vs Croatia | 3-3 | D |
| 11/10/24 | UNL | Croatia vs Scotland | 2-1 | W |
| 10/09/24 | UNL | Croatia vs Poland | 1-0 | W |
Croatia’s recent results show a team capable of grinding out points but struggling for consistency, with only two win in their last five outings. Their home performances stand out, conceding just two goals across four UNL matches in Split. The draw against Portugal highlights their ability to compete with elite sides, though the loss to Scotland exposed defensive vulnerabilities. Fatigue from a dense schedule could play a role, but their clean-sheet record at home suggests a stubborn defense. France will need to work hard to break them down.
France Results
France arrive in Split brimming with confidence after topping Group A2 with an impressive haul of 13 points. Didier Deschamps’ side have turned their away form into a weapon, winning their last three road games with early goals setting the tone. This run marks a stark improvement from their group-stage exit in the previous UNL edition.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 19/11/24 | UNL | Italy vs France | 1-3 | W |
| 16/11/24 | UNL | France vs Belgium | 2-1 | W |
| 14/10/24 | UNL | Belgium vs France | 1-2 | W |
| 11/10/24 | UNL | France vs Israel | 4-1 | W |
| 10/09/24 | UNL | France vs Italy | 1-3 | L |
France’s form is formidable, with four wins in their last five matches, including statement victories over Italy and Belgium. Their away scoring streak nine goals in three games underscores a lethal attack led by returning star Kylian Mbappé. The sole loss to Italy at home feels like an anomaly in an otherwise dominant run. Early goals have been a hallmark, suggesting Croatia’s defense will face pressure from the outset. Deschamps’ tactical nous continues to deliver results on the road.
Croatia vs France Head-to-Head (Last 5 Matches)
The history between Croatia and France leans heavily in favor of Les Bleus, with Croatia managing just one win in their last ten meetings. That lone victory in 2022 offers a rare highlight in an otherwise challenging rivalry. Personal duels, like Luka Modrić vs. Kylian Mbappé, add spice to this fixture.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 13/06/22 | UNL | France vs Croatia | 0-1 |
| 14/10/20 | UNL | Croatia vs France | 1-2 |
| 08/09/20 | UNL | France vs Croatia | 4-2 |
| 15/07/18 | WC | France vs Croatia | 4-2 |
| 29/03/11 | FI | France vs Croatia | 0-0 |
France’s dominance is clear, winning three of the last five encounters, including the 2018 World Cup final. Croatia’s 1-0 upset in 2022 proves they can defy the odds, but the aggregate scoreline across these matches (10-5) favors Les Bleus. Consistency remains France’s edge in this matchup.
Croatia Possible Starting Lineup:
Croatia’s lineup blends veteran experience with emerging talent, aiming to leverage their home advantage.
- Livakovic (GK), Juranovic (DF), Caleta-Car (DF), Sutalo (DF), Gvardiol (DF), Kovacic (MF), Modric (MF), P. Sucic (MF), Perisic (MF), Kramaric (FW), Baturina (FW)
France Possible Starting Lineup:
France’s selection showcases their attacking depth and defensive solidity, with Deschamps likely opting for pace and creativity.
- Maignan (GK), Kounde (DF), Konate (DF), Saliba (DF), Hernandez (DF), Tchouameni (MF), Rabiot (MF), Dembele (MF), Olise (MF), Mbappe (FW), Kolo Muani (FW)
Injured and Questionable Players
Injuries and absences can significantly alter a team’s performance, and both Croatia and France head into this match with key players sidelined or in doubt. The table below details the unavailable or questionable players for the March 20, 2025, clash, highlighting the specific injuries affecting their participation. This information is critical for gauging each squad’s depth and potential tactical adjustments.
| Team | Player | Injury/Status |
| Croatia | Luka Sucic | Injured (unspecified) |
| Croatia | Lovro Majer | Injured (unspecified) |
| Croatia | Igor Matanovic | Injured (unspecified) |
| Croatia | Bruno Petkovic | Questionable (hip) |
| France | Marcus Thuram | Injured (ankle) |
Key Factors to Watch
Breaking down this quarter-final requires a close look at the details that could sway the outcome. Both teams bring strengths and vulnerabilities to Split, and the stakes of a two-legged tie amplify every moment. Here’s what matters most heading into the first leg:
- Croatia’s Home Fortress: Unbeaten in four UNL home games (W3, D1), with five clean sheets in their last seven home matches across all competitions;
- France’s Away Firepower: Three straight road wins, scoring nine goals, with early strikes in each victory;
- Injuries: Croatia miss Luka Sucic, Lovro Majer, and Igor Matanovic; France lose Marcus Thuram, but Mbappé’s return boosts their;
- Luka Modrić’s Influence: The 39-year-old maestro scored in the last H2H and remains a clutch performer for Croatia;
- Kylian Mbappé’s Form: Back from a break, he’s netted three goals in his last three Real Madrid games;
- Croatia’s Fatigue: A winless run (D2, L1) in their last three group games hints at potential tiredness;
- France’s Momentum: Undefeated in five UNL matches (W4, D1), with a clear upward trajectory;
- Referee Impact: No details yet, but a strict official could curb France’s physical edge.
Free Tips on Croatia vs France
Navigating the Croatia vs France matchup on March 20, 2025, requires more than just gut instinct statistics and historical data hold the key to smarter predictions. This section distills critical insights from past encounters and team performances into actionable tips tailored for this UEFA Nations League quarter-final. Here’s how to leverage the numbers and trends for an edge in Split.
- Exploit Head-to-Head Trends: France have won three of the last five meetings with Croatia, including high-scoring affairs like the 4-2 World Cup final in 2018, suggesting a pattern of dominance that could repeat against a depleted Croatian side.
- Factor in Home vs. Away Dynamics: Croatia’s unbeaten run in four UNL home matches (W3, D1) contrasts with France’s rampant away form (three straight wins, nine goals), setting up a clash where venue-specific strengths will be decisive.
- Assess Team Momentum: France’s four wins in five UNL games signal peak confidence, while Croatia’s winless streak in their last three (D2, L1) hints at a morale dip that could hinder them against a buoyant Les Bleus.
- Monitor Player Impact: Luka Modrić’s knack for clutch goals (scoring in the 1-0 win over France in 2022) meets Kylian Mbappé’s red-hot form (three goals in his last three club games), making individual brilliance a game-changer to watch.
- Consider Fixture Fatigue: Croatia’s dense recent schedule may leave them vulnerable, especially against a France side that’s managed rotations effectively, with Deschamps resting stars like Mbappé earlier to keep them fresh for this stage.
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Croatia vs France Match Prediction 2025
France enter this tie as favorite, and for good reason: their current form, depth, and historical edge over Croatia make them a formidable force. The return of Kylian Mbappé, paired with Ousmane Dembélé’s flair and Adrien Rabiot’s midfield bite, gives Les Bleus a potent attack that Croatia’s aging squad may struggle to contain. Croatia’s home record is impressive, but their recent dip (no wins in three) and injury woes missing Sucic, Majer, and Matanovic blunt their threat. Modrić remains a wildcard, capable of unlocking any defense, yet France’s pace and early scoring habit (first-half goals in their last three away wins) could exploit Croatia’s slow starts.
Our Prediction: Croatia 1-2 France
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | France to Win | 2.09 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 1.94 |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | 1.78 |
Don’t sleep on the Croatia vs France match prediction underlining a low-scoring affair given Croatia’s home resilience. You can place your bet on the Croatia vs France match at bc.game, where competitive odds and live betting options await to elevate your experience!
