Corinthians vs Sao Paulo (3:1): Serie A Betano 20/11/2025

November 20, 2025

Status: Finished

3-1

Serie A Betano

Corinthians

Sao Paulo

The iconic Paulista derby returns on Thursday, November 20, 2025, with kick-off scheduled for 22:30 GMT+0 at the Neo Química Arena in São Paulo. Up to 49,205 fans are expected for one of the most heated rivalries in Brazilian football – Majestic Derby round 34 of Campeonato Brasileiro Série A Betano. The match will be officiated by Anderson Daronco, known for his strict style (average 5.8 yellow cards per game this season and already showed 9 cards in the reverse fixture).

Both teams are in the final stretch fighting for very different objectives: Corinthians chase a direct Copa Libertadores spot, while São Paulo desperately need points to escape the relegation dogfight. Corinthians vs Sao Paulo prediction today looks extremely tight because of home advantage and current motivation gap.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

This classic São Paulo derby always delivers drama, cards and goals in the second half. Recent trend shows that 4 of the last 5 H2H ended Over 2.5 goals or with red cards. Corinthians vs Sao Paulo prediction today leans toward the home side because of their solid recent home record and São Paulo’s terrible away form after international breaks.

Corinthians Results

Corinthians arrive after two consecutive defeats that stopped their momentum, but at Neo Química Arena they remain a completely different animal. Ramón Díaz’s side has lost only once in their last 10 home league games. Here are their last 5 matches:

Three wins in the last three home games before the recent slip-ups show that the Arena factor is huge. The two defeats came away against direct top-table rivals where they faced massive rotation after Copa Sudamericana games. Back at home, Corinthians instantly returned to clean sheets and low-scoring wins.

Sao Paulo Results

São Paulo’s season is turning into a nightmare – they are only 2 points above the relegation zone after winning just once in their last 8 away matches across all competitions. Luis Zubeldía is under massive pressure. Last 5 results:

Only 2 wins in the last 10 matches overall and terrible defensive record away – 15 goals conceded in last 7 away games. The away victory against Vasco remains their only positive result on the road since August.

Who will win Thursday’s Serie A Betano clash between Corinthians and Sao Paulo?

Corinthians > Draw > Sao Paulo >

Corinthians

46%

Draw

24%

Sao Paulo

30%

Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head

São Paulo historically dominates this fixture in recent years, winning 4 of the last 5 derbies.

The only non-loss for Corinthians in this run was a 2-2 draw at home 18 months ago. São Paulo scored at least 2 goals in 4 of these 5 meetings.

Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Predicted Starting Lineups

Lineups are not officially confirmed yet (trainers usually announce them 1 hour before kick-off), but based on the latest training sessions, press conferences and rotation patterns after the international break, these are the most probable XIs for the November 20 derby.

Corinthians possible starting lineup

Hugo Souza (GK) Matheuzinho (DF), Félix Torres (DF), André Ramalho (DF), Matheus Bidu (DF) Ángel Romero (MF), Breno Bidon (MF), José Martínez (MF), Ryan Gustavo (MF) Yuri Alberto (FW), Memphis Depay (FW)

São Paulo possible starting lineup

Rafael (GK) Igor Vinícius (DF), Robert Arboleda (DF), Sabino (DF), Welington (MF) – Damián Bobadilla (MF), Marcos Antônio (MF) Lucas Moura (MF), Luciano (MF), Wellington Rato (FW) André Silva (FW)

Key Points to Watch

• Corinthians have no fresh injuries – Memphis Depay and José Martínez are fully fit again after the international break;
• São Paulo miss Jonathan Calleri (suspended) and Lucas Moura (doubtful, muscle issue) – their two main goal threats;
• Corinthians won 7 of their last 9 home derbies against São Paulo dating back to 2017;
• Anderson Daronco issued 9 yellows + 1 red in the reverse fixture this season;
• São Paulo failed to score in 5 of their last 7 away games;
• Corinthians kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 6 home league matches;
• Average of 3.4 cards per game in last 10 H2H;
• São Paulo’s last away win at Neo Química Arena was in 2017 (8 years ago).

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Free Tips on Corinthians vs Sao Paulo

Before placing any bet on this Paulista derby, a quick look at the deeper data and context can separate blind luck from real value. These five selected tips are built specifically around the current situation of both clubs on November 20, 2025, and go beyond the obvious injuries or league table.

• Home vs Away gap is brutal this season: Corinthians at Neo Química Arena average 1.92 points per game and concede just 0.71 goals; São Paulo away drop to 0.88 points and leak 1.94 goals per match. In derbies the difference becomes even bigger — Corinthians are unbeaten in their last 9 home league games against São Paulo since 2017 (W7 D2).
• Post-international break syndrome hits São Paulo hard: In the last three seasons after FIFA/Conmebol dates, São Paulo have zero away wins in Serie A (0-2-6) and concede an average of 2.25 goals per game. Corinthians, on the other hand, won four of their last five home games after such breaks.
• Referee Anderson Daronco loves this fixture: In his last seven Corinthians vs São Paulo games he averaged 7.1 cards per match and showed at least one red card in four of them. This season alone he already dished out 9 yellows + 1 red in the reverse fixture.
• Second-half goals dominate the H2H: 14 of the last 19 goals between these two sides (74 %) were scored after half-time. São Paulo in particular score 68 % of their derby goals in the second 45 minutes, making “Second Half Over 0.5 goals” one of the most consistent angles in recent years.
• Pitch at Neo Química Arena will be heavy: São Paulo city had non-stop rain for the last 48 hours before the match (forecast: more showers on Thursday evening). The natural grass drains well but becomes slower and heavier — exactly the conditions where Corinthians’ physical, direct style thrives and São Paulo’s short-passing game struggles (they lost four of their last five away games on wet pitches).

Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Match Prediction 2025

Despite São Paulo’s historical edge, everything points to a home win on Thursday night. Corinthians vs Sao Paulo odds drastically undervalue the hosts considering São Paulo’s awful away record, missing key attackers and terrible post-international break performances (0 wins in last 6 away after FIFA dates). Ramón Díaz’s side is extremely tough to beat at Neo Química Arena and the extra motivation of jumping into top-6 makes them massive value.

We expect a low-scoring but intense battle that Corinthians win by a single goal – most likely 1-0 or 2-1. The market still prices São Paulo as slight favorites in some books because of H2H, but current form and team news scream home victory.

Our Prediction: Corinthians 1-0 Sao Paulo

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