Colombia is facing Paraguay in a crucial encounter on Tuesday, March 26, 2025, so the CONMEBOL World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign keeps on. Argentine referee Facundo Tello will handle the game, which starts at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla with 46,789 capacity. Two teams separated by just one point in the standings square off this Round 14 contest for a top-six finish to guarantee automatic qualification for the finals in Mexico, the USA, and Canada.
With 19 points, Colombia stays in contention for a World Cup seat despite a recent decline in play; Paraguay’s comeback under Gustavo Alfaro has helped them to reach fifth with 20 points. For Los Cafeteros, who have 13 of their 19 points at home, the Estadio Metropolitano has been a pillar; yet, the recent undefeated run of Paraguay and historical edge in away WCQ events add mystery to this qualification clash.
Betting Tips and Match Insights
Examining the teams’ current performance and past conflicts will help us create a strong Colombia against Paraguay prediction today. From Colombia’s home resilience to Paraguay’s defensive solidity on the road, this part helps one to grasp the dynamics at work. Driven by their most recent performance and head-to-head record, both sides present unique strengths and weaknesses. Anticipate a thorough analysis of form and pivotal events that could affect this highly important qualification. Let’s break out the figures and patterns to help you decide on your betting.
Colombia Results
Colombia’s qualification journey started brightly, with an unbeaten run through their first eight matches, but the wheels have come off lately. Three consecutive losses have dented their momentum, pushing them to the edge of the automatic qualification zone. Nestor Lorenzo’s side now face a must-win scenario at home to steady the ship.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 21/03/25 | WC | Brazil vs Colombia | 2-1 | L |
| 20/11/24 | WC | Colombia vs Ecuador | 0-1 | L |
| 16/11/24 | WC | Uruguay vs Colombia | 3-2 | L |
| 15/10/24 | WC | Colombia vs Chile | 4-0 | W |
| 10/10/24 | WC | Bolivia vs Colombia | 1-0 | L |
The recent skid three losses in a row marks Colombia’s worst run since 2008, a stark contrast to their 4-0 thrashing of Chile at home in October. That victory showcased their attacking potency at the Metropolitano, where they’ve historically leaned on home support. However, conceding late, as seen against Brazil, highlights defensive fragility under pressure. Their ability to score first has yielded mixed results, dropping five points from winning positions. A bounce-back is overdue, but the trend suggests vulnerability against disciplined sides.
Paraguay Results
Paraguay have turned their campaign around since Gustavo Alfaro took charge, riding a seven-match unbeaten streak in qualifiers. Their defensive resilience has been key, conceding the second-fewest goals in CONMEBOL, though their attack remains blunt. This clash tests whether their newfound grit can hold up on Colombian soil.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 21/03/25 | WC | Paraguay vs Chile | 1-0 | W |
| 19/11/24 | WC | Bolivia vs Paraguay | 2-2 | D |
| 15/11/24 | WC | Paraguay vs Argentina | 2-1 | W |
| 16/10/24 | WC | Paraguay vs Venezuela | 2-1 | W |
| 11/10/24 | WC | Ecuador vs Paraguay | 0-0 | D |
Paraguay’s seven-game run without defeat is their best in years, fueled by a watertight backline and timely goals. The 1-0 win over Chile and upset of Argentina show they can grind out results against top sides. However, their away form remains a concern only one WCQ road win since 2020. The 2-2 draw in Bolivia broke a 12-game away scoring drought, hinting at progress. Still, their low goal tally (nine in 13 games) suggests reliance on counterattacks rather than dominance.
Colombia vs Paraguay Head-to-Head (Last 5 Matches)
Recent meetings between these two sides have tilted in Colombia’s favor, though Paraguay have held their own in qualifiers on Colombian turf. The history offers a mixed bag, with defensive battles often deciding the outcome. This section tracks their last five encounters across all competitions.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 25/06/24 | CA | Colombia vs Paraguay | 2-1 |
| 22/11/23 | WC | Paraguay vs Colombia | 0-1 |
| 20/11/22 | FI | Colombia vs Paraguay | 2-0 |
| 17/11/21 | WC | Colombia vs Paraguay | 0-0 |
| 06/09/21 | WC | Paraguay vs Colombia | 1-1 |
Colombia’s unbeaten streak in the last six H2Hs (W4, D2) gives them an edge, but their home WCQ record against Paraguay is shaky just one win in six (D2, L3). Paraguay’s last victory in Barranquilla (2-1, 2017) proves they can upset the odds. Expect a tight contest given the pattern of low-scoring affairs.
Colombia Predicted Starting Lineup
Colombia’s lineup is expected to blend attacking flair with defensive solidity as they aim to halt their three-game skid.
Vargas (GK), Munoz (DF), Cuesta (DF), Lucumi (DF), Mojica (DF), Rios (MF), Lerma (MF), Arias (MF), Rodriguez (MF), Diaz (FW), Duran (FW).
Paraguay Predicted Starting Lineup
Paraguay’s selection under Alfaro will prioritize defensive resilience and counterattacking threats to extend their unbeaten run.
Fernandez (GK), Caceres (DF), Balbuena (DF), Alderete (DF), Alonso (DF), Galarza (MF), Villasanti (MF), Cubas (MF), Almiron (MF), Sanabria (FW), Enciso (FW).
Key Factors to Watch
Form, injuries, and tactical nuances will shape this qualifier’s outcome. Colombia’s home advantage clashes with Paraguay’s defensive streak, setting up a battle of resilience versus opportunity. Here’s what to focus on before locking in your bets.
- Colombia’s home form: 13 of 19 points earned at the Metropolitano, with a 4-0 rout of Chile as the highlight;
- Paraguay’s unbeaten run: Seven games without a loss, including wins over Argentina and Chile;
- Injuries: Colombia miss Yerson Mosquera and Juan Cabal (ACL tears); Paraguay lack captain Gustavo Gomez (injury);
- Key players: Juan Quintero (two goal contributions in three club games) for Colombia; Miguel Almirón (two assists in four club games) for Paraguay;
- Defensive stats: Paraguay concede the second-fewest goals in CONMEBOL; Colombia have leaked late goals in recent losses;
- Goal drought: Paraguay’s nine goals in 13 games underline their struggle to convert chances;
- Historical edge: Paraguay unbeaten in their last two WCQ trips to Colombia (W1, D1);
- Motivation: Colombia need a win to halt their slide; Paraguay aim to solidify their top-six spot.
Free Tips on Colombia vs Paraguay
Unlocking the edge in predicting the Colombia vs Paraguay clash on March 26, 2025, requires digging into the numbers and context from past encounters and current trends. This list distills critical statistical insights and matchup-specific factors to sharpen your betting approach. Here are five practical tips tailored to this CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier, drawn from team and player stats, head-to-head history, and performance patterns.
- Historical Scoring Trends: Colombia have dominated recent H2Hs, winning four of the last six across all competitions, but their home WCQ record against Paraguay shows just one victory in six (D2, L3), with four matches under 2.5 goals expect a cagey, low-scoring affair in Barranquilla.
- Team Momentum Shifts: Paraguay’s seven-game unbeaten streak (W4, D3) contrasts sharply with Colombia’s three straight qualifier losses, suggesting the visitors carry higher confidence, though Colombia’s 13-of-19 points at home signal a potential rebound driven by desperation.
- Player Impact Zones: Luis Diaz (17 international goals) thrives at the Metropolitano, netting in Colombia’s last home win (4-0 vs. Chile), while Paraguay’s attack leans on Miguel Almirón’s creativity (two assists in four club games) watch for these two to dictate the game’s tempo.
- Venue and Surface Edge: The natural grass at Estadio Metropolitano favors Colombia’s possession-based style (evident in their 68% home points haul), but Paraguay’s counterattacking setup could exploit any wear on the pitch, especially if late-March weather turns it sluggish.
- Referee Tendencies: Facundo Tello’s whistle has overseen tight games in CONMEBOL qualifiers his average of 4.5 cards per match hints at a physical battle, potentially disrupting Colombia’s rhythm if Paraguay lean into their defensive grit.
These pointers, rooted in data and dynamics specific to Colombia vs Paraguay, offer a clear lens for weighing the odds and outcomes in this pivotal qualifier.
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Colombia vs Paraguay Match Prediction 2025
Colombia enter this clash desperate to snap a three-game losing streak, while Paraguay ride a wave of confidence from seven unbeaten qualifiers. The Metropolitano’s atmosphere and Colombia’s 68% home points haul (13/19) tilt the scales slightly in their favor, but Paraguay’s defensive shape conceding just 0.8 goals per game poses a real challenge. Colombia’s attack, led by Luis Diaz (17 international goals) and potentially Juan Quintero, has the tools to break through, especially given Paraguay’s paltry nine goals scored in 13 matches. However, their recent habit of conceding late (e.g., Brazil’s 94th-minute winner) exposes cracks that Paraguay’s counterattacking threat, via Almirón, could exploit.
Paraguay’s away record tempers optimism one win in 14 WCQ road games since 2020 suggests they’ll settle for a point rather than push for victory. Their 2-2 draw in Bolivia shows progress, but Colombia’s home firepower (e.g., 4-0 vs. Chile) hints at an edge. The Colombia vs Paraguay odds likely reflect this balance Colombia as slight favorite, Paraguay with value as underdogs. Historical WCQ meetings in Barranquilla lean low-scoring (four of six under 2.5 goals), yet Colombia’s urgency might force an open game. We predict a narrow 1-0 Colombia win their home advantage and need for points outweigh Paraguay’s grit, though a draw (e.g., 1-1) wouldn’t shock given the Guaraníes’ resilience.
Our Prediction: Colombia 1-0 Paraguay
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Colombia to Win | 1.48 |
| Both Teams to Score | No | 1.54 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.62 |
Betting on this tight affair? Stake on Colombia’s home edge, but don’t sleep on Paraguay’s knack for frustrating hosts. Place your wager via BC Game Stake on the match – Colombia vs Paraguay you can make on bc.game and capitalize on this CONMEBOL showdown.
