Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory (1:0): A-League 28/11/2025

November 28, 2025

Status: Finished

1-0

A-League

Brisbane Roar

Melbourne Victory

The Australian A-League Men continues on Friday, 28 November 2025, when Brisbane Roar host Melbourne Victory at the iconic Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. Kick-off is scheduled for local time 08:35 GMT+0. The match will be refereed by experienced Australian official Shaun Evans, who averages 4.8 yellow cards per game this season and has overseen 58 % home wins in his last 20 A-League appointments. This Round 8 fixture is crucial for both sides trying to climb into the top-six places early in the campaign.

Brisbane Roar currently sit mid-table after an inconsistent start, while Melbourne Victory are looking to arrest a surprising slump after three defeats in their last four outings. Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory prediction today points toward a tight, low-scoring contest given recent trends.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

The upcoming clash at Suncorp Stadium offers plenty of value for bettors who dig into form, head-to-head trends and current squad issues. Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory prediction today leans toward a cagey affair, with both teams struggling for fluency in the final third lately. Recent matches between these two have rarely produced fireworks, and current underlying numbers support another low-goal output.

Brisbane Roar Results

Brisbane Roar have been tough to beat at Suncorp Stadium this season, losing only once in their last ten home league games dating back to last term. Their defensive organisation under Ruben Zadkovich has improved markedly, but converting draws into wins remains the main problem. Here are their last five competitive results:

Three clean sheets in five games underline their solidity at home, yet only one win from their last three outings shows they still lack cutting edge. The 3-0 demolition of Newcastle Jets remains their standout performance this season.

Melbourne Victory Results

Melbourne Victory started the campaign brightly but have hit a major speed bump, taking just one point from the last twelve available. Patrick Kisnorbo’s side have looked unusually fragile defensively away from AAMI Park. Here are their last five competitive results:

Victory have conceded ten goals in their last four matches – their worst defensive run in over five years. Only the away win at Perth Glory interrupts an otherwise dismal sequence.

Who will win Friday’s A-League clash between Brisbane Roar and Melbourne Victory?

Brisbane Roar > Draw > Melbourne Victory >

Brisbane Roar

41%

Draw

25%

Melbourne Victory

34%

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head

Four of the last five H2H meetings produced Under 2.5 goals, with three ending level. Brisbane are unbeaten in the last three home games against Victory (W1 D2).

Predicted Starting Lineups: Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory

In this A-League Men Round 8 fixture on 28 November 2025, both teams are expected to field competitive sides despite some absences. Coaches Michael Valkanis for Brisbane Roar and Arthur Diles for Melbourne Victory have limited options due to injuries and suspensions, but the lineups below reflect the most likely starters based on recent form, training reports and tactical preferences. These are projected 4-3-3 formations for both, emphasizing defensive solidity given the low-scoring H2H trend.

Brisbane Roar possible starting lineup:

Bouzanis (GK), McGarry (DF), Herrington (DF), Valkanis (DF), Salas (DF), Klein (MF), O’Shea (MF), Stajic (MF), Vrakas (MF), Ruhs (FW), Vidic (FW).

Melbourne Victory possible starting lineup:

Duncan (GK), Inserra (DF), Jackson (DF), Davidson (DF), Stella (DF), Valadon (MF), Jalacic (MF), Mata (MF), Grimaldi (FW), Fornaroli (FW), Vergos (FW).

Key Match Factors to Watch

• Brisbane Roar have no fresh injury concerns; key striker Thomas Waddingham is fully fit after a minor knock;
• Melbourne Victory are without captain Roderick Miranda (suspended) and defender Adama Traoré (hamstring, expected 3-4 weeks);
• Victory’s main creative outlet Bruno Fornaroli has scored only once in his last seven appearances;
• Brisbane have kept clean sheets in three of their last four home league games;
• Victory have failed to score in three of their last five away matches in all competitions;
• Average match goals in this fixture over the last five seasons: 2.1;
• Shaun Evans issued 7+ cards in four of his last six A-League games involving these teams;
• Brisbane are unbeaten in their last seven Friday night home games (W4 D3).

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Free Tips on Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory

Before placing any bet on this A-League clash, a quick dive into the numbers and context can separate profitable decisions from guesses. The tips below are built exclusively on statistical trends from previous matches between these sides, recent team data and situational factors that are often overlooked. Apply them to find the real value in Friday’s encounter.

• Head-to-Head goal trend is ice-cold: In the last 8 meetings between Brisbane Roar and Melbourne Victory (since 2022), only once has the match produced over 2.5 goals. Seven of those eight games ended with two goals or fewer – the strongest Under 2.5 run of any current A-League fixture pair.
• Melbourne Victory’s away scoring drought against Brisbane: Victory have failed to score in four of their last six visits to Suncorp Stadium (0-0, 0-0, 2-0 loss, 1-1, 3-2 loss, 1-1). When they do score here, it’s usually a single goal from a set-piece.
• Brisbane’s Friday night fortress: Roar are unbeaten in their last nine Friday home games in the A-League (W5 D4) and have conceded just 0.67 goals per game in those matches. Melbourne Victory, by contrast, have lost four of their last five Friday away fixtures.
• Referee Shaun Evans loves cards in this matchup: In the four A-League games involving these two teams that Evans has refereed since 2021, the average card count is 6.75 per match and three of the four went Over 5.5 cards. He has already shown 7+ cards in 42 % of his appointments this season.
• Recent schedule fatigue for Victory: Melbourne played Sydney FC away only six days ago and now face a second interstate trip in a week. In identical situations last season (away game ≤6 days after another away), Victory won just 1 of 7 matches and conceded 2+ goals in six of them.

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory Match Prediction 2025

Current Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory odds heavily reflect Victory’s historical dominance, but the numbers simply do not support backing the visitors right now. Brisbane’s defensive resilience at Suncorp combined with Victory’s travel issues and missing centre-back make the home side a solid option even at short prices. The market still overrates Victory because of reputation rather than current performance – their xGA away from home is the third-worst in the league (1.92 per game), while Brisbane’s home xGA is top-four (0.94). Add the head-to-head trend for low-scoring draws and the most likely outcome is another stalemate or a narrow home win.

We expect Brisbane Roar to edge a scrappy, physical contest 1-0 or force a 1-1 draw. Best value lies in combining Brisbane Roar or Draw on the double-chance with Under 3.5 goals – a bet that has landed in nine of the last ten meetings across all venues.

Our Prediction: Brisbane Roar 1-0 Melbourne Victory

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