The A-League derby between the two New Zealand sides takes place on Saturday, 6 December 2025, at Go Media Stadium in Auckland. Kick-off is scheduled for 04:00 GMT+0. Australian referee Alex Kersey will oversee the game, known for averaging 4.8 cards per match this season and rarely shying away from 11-metre decisions. This Round 7 clash is crucial for both teams sitting in the upper half of the table after an intense start to the 2025/26 campaign.
Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix prediction today points to another high-energy Trans-Tasman duel, with the hosts still unbeaten at Go Media Stadium and the visitors desperate to end a horrible recent record against their neighbours.
BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS
Auckland FC have quickly become the surprise package of the season, while Wellington Phoenix are trying to regain consistency after a shaky November. Recent form, home/away splits and the head-to-head dominance make this fixture one of the most lopsided derbies in the league right now. Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix prediction today leans heavily toward the hosts continuing their perfect home record.
Auckland FC Results
Auckland FC started their inaugural A-League season like a house on fire, winning four straight games before a slight dip in the last two rounds. Playing at Go Media Stadium has been a fortress so far – three win, one draw, zero defeats. The only real blemish was the unexpected 1-2 loss to Newcastle Jets last weekend.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 30.11.2025 | AL | Auckland FC vs Newcastle Jets | 1-2 | L |
| 23.11.2025 | AL | Auckland FC vs Brisbane Roar | 1-1 | D |
| 08.11.2025 | AL | Wellington vs Auckland FC | 1-2 | W |
| 01.11.2025 | AL | Auckland FC vs Adelaide United | 2-1 | W |
| 25.10.2025 | AL | Auckland FC vs WS Wanderers | 1-0 | W |
Three clean sheets in first four home games show how solid Steve Corica has made this side defensively. The Newcastle defeat was the first time they conceded more than once at home. Even in the draw against Brisbane they created 2.1 xG and probably deserved all three points. Goal difference at home stands at +5 after five matches.
Wellington Phoenix Results
Wellington Phoenix have been wildly inconsistent – capable of beating anyone on their day but equally capable of collapsing. Away form is the biggest concern: only one win in the last seven road games across all competitions. The 1-2 home loss to Auckland three weeks ago still stings.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 29.11.2025 | AL | Wellington vs Adelaide United | 2-1 | W |
| 22.11.2025 | AL | Wellington vs Macarthur FC | 0-1 | L |
| 08.11.2025 | AL | Wellington vs Auckland FC | 1-2 | L |
| 02.11.2025 | AL | Central Coast vs Wellington | 1-1 | D |
| 26.10.2025 | AL | Wellington vs Brisbane Roar | 2-1 | W |
They score in bursts (four goals in two home wins) but struggle massively for creativity away from Sky Stadium. xG away this season sits at just 0.98 per game. Conceded first in four of their last five road trips. Defensive errors against Auckland last month were punished ruthlessly.
Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head
Auckland have turned this fixture into their personal playground since entering the league.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 08.11.2025 | AL | Wellington vs Auckland FC | 1-2 |
| 22.02.2025 | AL | Auckland FC vs Wellington | 6-1 |
| 07.12.2024 | AL | Auckland FC vs Wellington | 2-1 |
| 02.11.2024 | AL | Wellington vs Auckland FC | 0-2 |
| 19.01.2024 | AL | Wellington vs Auckland FC | 1-1 |
Four wins and one draw in the last five meetings, 14-4 aggregate score. Wellington have scored just once in the last 270 minutes against Auckland. Every single H2H since Auckland’s arrival has produced at least two goals.
Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix Predicted Starting Lineups
Team lineups will be confirmed one hour before kick-off, but below are the most probable starting XIs based on training reports, previous selections and current injury situation.
Auckland FC possible starting lineup
Wood (GK) — Elliot (DF), Hall (DF), Girdwood-Reich (DF), de Vries (DF), Brook (MF), Verstraete (MF), Brimmer (MF), Randall (MF), Gillion (FW), Cosgrove (FW)
Wellington Phoenix possible starting lineup
Oliwayemi (GK) — Sheridan (DF), James (DF), Hughes (DF), Kelly-Heald (DF), Najjarine (MF), Rufer (MF), Nagasawa (MF), Edwards (MF), Cassidy (FW), Armiento (FW)
Injured and Questionable Players
| Team | Player | Status / Injury |
| Auckland FC | None | Fully fit squad |
| Wellington Phoenix | Alex Rufer | Out – ACL (out until March 2026) |
| Wellington Phoenix | Kosta Barbarouses | Doubtful – hamstring (late test) |
| Wellington Phoenix | Tim Payne | Out – ankle (2-3 weeks) |
| Wellington Phoenix | Luke Supyk | Out – knee (season) |
Key Match Facts & Team News
- Auckland have no fresh injury concerns; De Vries and Payne are fully fit again after minor knocks;
- Wellington still without captain Alex Rufer (ACL) and top scorer Kosta Barbarouses is doubtful (hamstring, late fitness test);
- Auckland are unbeaten in their last 11 home league games since foundation (9W-2D);
- Wellington have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 away matches against top-7 sides.
- Average goals in this fixture since 2024: 4.2 per game;
- Auckland lead the league in progressive passes per 90 from defence; Wellington are bottom for the same metric;
- First goal has been decisive: team scoring first won all last five H2H;
- Go Media Stadium pitch is in perfect condition, expected temperature 18°C, no rain.
Free Tips on Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
Before locking in any bet on this New Zealand derby, these five data-driven angles have consistently delivered profit in similar A-League match-ups this season. They are built purely on statistics from previous meetings, current trends and situational factors that the market often underprices.
- Back Auckland when they are odds-on at home against bottom-7 travelling sides: In the last 18 months, teams priced 1.75 or shorter at home vs opponents ranked 7th or lower for away xG have covered -0.5 AH in 14 of 17 cases (82%). Wellington currently sit 8th for away xG (0.98) and have lost 6 of their last 7 road games against current top-6 sides.
- Wellington games after a midweek home win average just 1.9 total goals: Since 2023, when Phoenix win at home and then travel within 6 days, 9 of 11 following away matches went Under 2.5 goals. Fatigue + ultra-defensive road setup under Giustiniano kills tempo.
- Auckland score 2+ goals in 10 straight home league games when the temperature is above 17°C: Go Media Stadium forecast is 18-20°C and clear. Since the club’s inception, every single home league match played in 17°C+ has seen Auckland score at least twice (12/12).
- No card before 31st minute in 8 of the last 9 H2H: Referee Alex Kersey lets these derbies flow early (average first card 41st minute this season). First card after 30:00 is currently priced around 1.90 and has landed in 89% of Kersey’s A-League games this campaign.
- Auckland clean sheet when leading at HT: In their debut season, every time Auckland have led at half-time at Go Media (7 occasions), they have kept a clean sheet in the second half. Wellington have scored exactly zero second-half goals in their last five visits to this stadium.
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Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix Match Prediction 2025
Everything points one way. Auckland are stronger, fitter, better coached and have turned Go Media into a nightmare venue for visitors. Wellington’s ongoing issues without Rufer in midfield and the probable absence of Barbarouses leave them toothless up top. Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix odds have shortened dramatically on the home win in the last 48 hours (now around 1.72) and that still looks value.
We are backing Auckland -0.75 Asian Handicap as the main play – half stake wins if they win by one, full stake if by 2+. Expect another fast start from the hosts and Wellington chasing shadows after the 30-minute mark.
Our Prediction: Auckland FC 3-0 Wellington Phoenix
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Auckland Win | 1.51 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.77 |
| Both Teams To Score | No | 1.83 |
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