Atlético-MG vs Flamengo RJ (1:1): Brazil Serie A Betano 26/11/2025

November 26, 2025

Status: Finished

1-1

Brazil Serie A Betano

Atlético-MG

Flamengo RJ

The crucial 36th round clash of the 2025 Brazil Serie A Betano season will take place on 26 November 2025 at 00:30 GMT+0 at the modern MRV Arena in Belo Horizonte, home to Atlético Mineiro since 2023. The 47,465-capacity stadium is expected to be close to full for this top-of-the-table battle that could decide the destiny of the title race. Brazilian referee Raphael Klein has been appointed to officiate what promises to be a tense and card-heavy encounter — he averages 5.8 yellow cards per game in Serie A this season and has already shown 11 cards in two previous Atlético-MG home matches.

This Atlético-MG vs Flamengo RJ prediction today highlights one of the most anticipated fixtures of the final stretch, with both clubs still mathematically in the championship hunt and separated by just a few points. A victory for the hosts would virtually guarantee them a top-2 finish and direct Copa Libertadores spot, while Flamengo arrive needing three points to keep realistic title hopes alive heading into the last two rounds.

BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS

Atlético-MG vs Flamengo RJ match prediction has become one of the most discussed games among Brazilian betting circles this week. Recent form, home/away splits, set-piece efficiency and the historical tightness of this fixture all point toward another low-scoring, tactical battle. The market has reacted sharply to Atlético’s recent defensive struggles on the road, potentially creating value on the hosts at the MRV Arena where they remain extremely hard to beat. Head-to-head trends over the past 18 months further strengthen the case for a cautious approach rather than expecting a goal-fest. Our Atlético-MG vs Flamengo RJ betting tips are built on the following detailed breakdowns.

Atlético-MG Results

Atlético Mineiro have turned the MRV Arena into a fortress this season, but their away form in the last fortnight has dented confidence. Gabriel Milito’s side suffered back-to-back defeats on the road before bouncing back with a solid home win. The 3-3 draw against Fortaleza remains the only blot on their otherwise impressive recent home record.

The two consecutive away defeats stand out as anomalies rather than a trend — both came against teams fighting relegation and with heavy midweek travel. At home, Atlético remain unbeaten in their last eight Serie A matches (6W-2D) and have kept four clean sheets in the last six. The return of key defenders after suspension further strengthens their defensive outlook. Paulinho has scored or assisted in five of the last seven home games, making him the focal point of their attack. Set-piece conversion rate at MRV Arena sits at an impressive 19% this season — highest in the league.

Flamengo RJ Results

Flamengo arrive in excellent spirits after three consecutive victories, scoring 11 goals in the process. Tite’s side have rediscovered their clinical edge in the final third, led by the evergreen Pedro and a resurgent Gabriel Barbosa. Defensive solidity away from the Maracanã, however, continues to be their Achilles’ heel.

Flamengo have won their last three home games convincingly but have taken just four points from their last five away league matches. They have conceded in nine of their last ten away fixtures across all competitions. Pedro has been directly involved in eight goals in the last six appearances. The team’s PPDA away from home (10.8) is noticeably higher than at Maracanã (8.3), indicating lower pressing intensity on the road. Suspensions and minor knocks in midfield could force Tite into changes for this crucial trip.

Who will win Wednesday’s Brazil Serie A Betano clash between Atlético-MG and Flamengo RJ?

Atlético-MG > Draw > Flamengo RJ >

Atlético-MG

21%

Draw

24%

Flamengo RJ

55%

Atlético-MG vs Flamengo RJ Head-to-Head

The recent history between these two giants has been dominated by low scores and Flamengo edging the results.

Four of the last five meetings produced under 2.5 goals, with three finishing 1-0 or 0-0. Flamengo are unbeaten in the last four competitive H2H (2W-2D). Atlético have failed to score in three of the last five encounters. The last meeting at MRV Arena ended 1-1 in August. Only one of the last seven H2H saw both teams score.

Atlético-MG Predicted Starting Lineup

Everson (GK), Guilherme Arana (DF), Vitor Hugo (DF), Ruan Tressoldi (DF), Júnior Alonso (DF), Alan Franco (MF), Igor Gomes (MF), Bernard (MF), Gustavo Scarpa (MF), Hulk (FW), Dudu (FW).

Flamengo RJ Predicted Starting Lineup

Agustín Rossi (GK), Guillermo Varela (DF), Danilo (DF), Léo Pereira (DF), Alex Sandro (DF), Jorginho (MF), Everton Araújo (MF), Jorge Carrascal (MF), Giorgian De Arrascaeta (MF), Everton Cebolinha (FW), Gonzalo Plata (FW).

Key Factors to Watch

• Atlético-MG welcome back Gustavo Scarpa and Junior Alonso from suspension — both starters;
• Flamengo will miss suspended midfielder Erick Pulgar and have doubts over Allan and Gerson (both muscular issues);
• Atlético have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 6 home league games;
• Flamengo have conceded first in 6 of their last 8 away matches;
• Paulinho has scored in 4 straight home appearances against top-8 sides;
• Referee Raphael Klein has given 7+ cards in 70% of Atlético-MG matches he’s handled this season;
• Atlético average 2.1 goals from set-pieces at home; Flamengo concede 0.9 per away game from dead balls;
• The last three league meetings between these sides at MRV Arena all ended under 2.5 goals.

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Free Tips on Atlético-MG vs Flamengo RJ

Before placing any bet on this blockbuster Serie A clash, experienced punters always dig deeper than just the league table. The tips below are built exclusively on statistical patterns from previous matches, head-to-head data and situational factors that directly influence Wednesday’s game at MRV Arena. Applying these five proven angles has historically delivered the highest edge in Atlético-MG vs Flamengo RJ encounters.

• Head-to-Head dominance in low-scoring games: In the last 8 competitive meetings since 2023, 7 finished with under 2.5 goals and only once did both teams score. This fixture consistently produces cagey, tactical battles (average 1.75 total goals per match) regardless of current form, making “Under” lines one of the most profitable long-term plays in Brazilian football.
• Atlético-MG’s extreme home/away split at MRV Arena: Galo have lost just 1 of their 23 Serie A home games since the stadium opened (W16 D6 L1) and kept clean sheets in 52% of them. Flamengo, conversely, have won only 29% of their away league games in 2025 and failed to score in 3 of their last 7 road trips against top-8 sides.
• Referee Raphael Klein’s card profile in big matches: Klein averages 6.4 yellow cards when officiating games involving at least one of these two clubs and has shown 7+ cards in 5 of his last 7 top-6 clashes. With both teams ranking top-3 for fouls committed this season, the over cards line carries significant value.
• Flamengo’s first-half vulnerability on the road: Tite’s side have trailed at half-time in 6 of their last 9 away league matches and conceded the opening goal in 7 of those. Atlético-MG, meanwhile, have scored before the break in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams from Rio.
• Set-piece discrepancy: Atlético-MG rank 1st in Serie A for goals scored from dead-ball situations at home (21% of total goals), while Flamengo rank 17th for goals conceded from set-pieces away. With Junior Alonso and Lyanco returning from suspension, expect Milito’s side to target this clear weakness repeatedly.

Atlético-MG vs Flamengo RJ Match Prediction

Atlético-MG vs Flamengo RJ odds have shortened dramatically on the hosts in the last 48 hours (from 2.10 to 1.91 on Pinnacle), reflecting strong sharp money on Milito’s side. Home advantage, defensive reinforcements and Flamengo’s ongoing away struggles tilt this fixture clearly in favour of Atlético Mineiro. The market still offers value on under 2.5 goals given the recent H2H trend and both teams’ cautious approach in big games this season. We expect a tense, tactical battle decided by a single goal — most likely from a set-piece or a Paulinho moment of brilliance.

Our Prediction: Atlético-MG 0-1 Flamengo RJ

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