The fourth round match at the WTA Wimbledon Championships that everyone has been waiting for is between top seed Aryna Sabalenka and 24th seed Elise Mertens. The match will take place on July 6, 2025, at 10:00 GMT+0 at the All England Club in London. It will be played on grass courts, although there is no information on the referee for this match.
Sabalenka, who is trying to win her maiden Wimbledon crown, will face Mertens, a past grass court winner this season, in this 1/8-final encounter. This is an important step toward the semifinals because the victor will play Laura Siegemund or Solana Sierra in the quarterfinals.
Sabalenka vs Mertens Betting Tips
To make an informed Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens prediction today, understanding recent performances and head-to-head history is crucial. Both players have done well on grass, although Sabalenka has a big advantage in their past matches. This part gets you ready for a more in-depth look at their most recent games and head-to-head confrontations. We can better judge their possibilities by looking at how they have played in the past and how they have done against each other. These suggestions will help us make smart bets on this intriguing Wimbledon match.
Recent Matches: Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka has been a strong presence at Wimbledon 2025, showing off her strength and accuracy. The Belarusian hasn’t lost a set in her first three matches, which means she’s at her best. Here is a summary of her last five bouts, which shows how consistent she is.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 04/07/25 | WIM | Sabalenka A. vs Raducanu E. | 2-0 | W |
| 02/07/25 | WIM | Sabalenka A. vs Bouzkova M. | 2-0 | W |
| 30/06/25 | WIM | Sabalenka A. vs Branstine C. | 2-0 | W |
| 21/06/25 | BER | Sabalenka A. vs Vondrousova M. | 0-2 | L |
| 20/06/25 | BER | Sabalenka A. vs Rybakina E. | 2-1 | W |
Sabalenka’s perfect run at Wimbledon, where she won all of her matches in straight sets, shows how good she is on grass. Her strong serve and aggressive play from the baseline have made it hard for her opponents to win. The loss to Vondrousova in Berlin was on a different kind of grass court, so it didn’t show how well she is playing at Wimbledon right now. Her win over Rybakina proves that she can compete with the best. This means that Sabalenka is in a great spot for the next match.
Recent Matches: Elise Mertens
Elise Mertens has demonstrated that she can bounce back and change at Wimbledon 2025, when she made it to the fourth round for the third time. Her win on grass at the Libema Open earlier this year shows how comfortable she is on the surface. The following five matches show how she has been doing lately.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
| 04/07/25 | WIM | Mertens E. vs Svitolina E. | 2-0 | W |
| 02/0725 | WIM | Mertens E. vs Li A. | 2-1 | W |
| 30/06/25 | WIM | Mertens E. vs Fruhvirtova L. | 2-0 | W |
| 22/06/25 | BAD | Svitolina E. vs Mertens E. | 2-0 | L |
| 15/06/25 | HER | Ruse G. vs Mertens E. | 0-2 | W |
Mertens has played well at Wimbledon, losing only one set to Li. Her win over Svitolina, a good grass court player, improves her confidence. Winning the Libema Open shows how good she is on grass courts. But her loss to Svitolina in Bad Homburg shows that she isn’t always consistent when playing against elite players. Mertens will be able to compete based on how well she can defend and return.
Head-to-Head: Sabalenka vs Mertens
Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens have played each other a lot, and the top seed has won most of the time. Their fights give us important information about their next fight. Here are the last five times they met, which indicate how much better Sabalenka is.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
| 27/04/25 | MAD | Sabalenka A. vs Mertens E. | 2-1 |
| 19/04/25 | STU | Sabalenka A. vs Mertens E. | 2-0 |
| 02/09/24 | USO | Mertens E. vs Sabalenka A. | 0-2 |
| 21/01/23 | AO | Sabalenka A. vs Mertens E. | 2-0 |
| 06/09/21 | USO | Mertens E. vs Sabalenka A. | 0-2 |
Since 2018, Sabalenka has beaten Mertens nine times in a row, including their single encounter on grass in 2018. Mertens has Sabalenka has beaten Mertens nine times in a row since 2018, including their sole meeting on grass in 2018. Mertens has had a hard time winning sets, only winning one of their last eight matches. This pattern heavily favors Sabalenka, who always beats Mertens’ defensive strategy.
Key Factors to Watch
There are a number of things that will affect the outcome of this fourth-round encounter at Wimbledon. On grass, Sabalenka’s aggressive style and Mertens’ ability to defend will be put to the test. Here are some important things to think about for this match:
- Sabalenka’s Serve: On grass, her powerful first serve wins 70% of the time, which is a vital weapon;
- Mertens’ Return Game: Mertens is in the top 20 for return points won, which could make Sabalenka’s second serve harder to hit;
- Sabalenka has won three sets at Wimbledon, while Mertens has only lost one;
- Fatigue: Sabalenka has played less matches (1.5 hours on average) than Mertens, who played a longer match versus Li;
- Sabalenka has a 10-2 record against Mertens, with 9 straight wins, which gives her a mental edge;
- Mertens’ Grass Title: Her triumph at the Libema Open demonstrates that she can do well on grass, but only against weaker opponents;
- Mental Toughness: Sabalenka’s ability to win matches in straight sets shows how focused she is when things go tough;
- Motivation for the tournament: Sabalenka is very motivated because she wants to reach her first Wimbledon final. Mertens, on the other hand, wants to reach the quarter-finals, which is rare.
Free Tips on Sabalenka vs Mertens
These betting suggestions focus on the most important parts of the Sabalenka vs. Mertens match. We point out important elements by looking at the surface dynamics, the players’ shape, and their past performance. These tips can help you make smart bets:
- Sabalenka’s powerful game does better on grass because her serve and forehand are stronger there. Mertens, on the other hand, plays more defensively.
- Sabalenka has a 10-2 record versus Mertens, including a win on grass, so she is clearly the favorite.
- Serving Efficiency: Sabalenka’s excellent first-serve victory rate (70%) will probably make it harder for Mertens to break serve.
- Match Stamina: Sabalenka’s shorter match timings at Wimbledon show that she has more vitality than Mertens.
- Mental Strength: If sets are close, Sabalenka’s ability to win tie-breaks (80% of the time in 2025) could be the deciding factor.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens Prediction 2025
The Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens odds heavily favor Sabalenka, with bookmakers giving her a 69.58% chance of victory. Sabalenka is clearly the favorite because she has never lost a set at Wimbledon 2025 and has a huge 10-2 head-to-head record against her. Her strong serve and aggressive play from the baseline are great for grass, where she has easily beaten players like Raducanu and Bouzkova. Mertens has a grass court title from the Libema Open, but she can’t handle Sabalenka’s passion. In their last eight matches, she hasn’t won a set. Her strong return game and defensive style can keep rallies close, but Sabalenka’s ability to control points and take advantage of break points (65% conversion rate) will probably be the most important thing. Mertens’ recent win against Svitolina proves she can do it, but the fact that they have played each other before and Sabalenka has fresher legs (less court time) gives her the edge. The grass court makes Sabalenka’s strengths even stronger, and her desire to make it to the Wimbledon semifinals for the third year in a row gives her even more determination. Mertens may push a set closer than in previous matches, but Sabalenka should still win.
Our Prediction: Sabalenka 2-0 Mertens
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Winner | Aryna Sabalenka | 1.21 |
| Set Score | Sabalenka to win 2-0 | 1.65 |
| Total Games | Under 20.5 games | 1.87 |
Place your bet on the Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens match at bc.game. With Sabalenka’s dominant form and head-to-head advantage, this is a prime opportunity to back a strong favorite. Explore the exciting betting options available and take advantage of the competitive odds at BC Game for this Wimbledon showdown.
