The decisive Group A clash of the FIFA Arab Cup 2025 will take place on 9 December 2025 at 17:00 GMT at the Khalifa International Stadium in Al Rayyan, Qatar. With a capacity of 45 857, this iconic venue will host a match that will determine the group winner and direct qualification to the quarter-finals. As of now, no referee appointment has been officially confirmed by FIFA, but the game is expected to be officiated by an experienced AFC or CAF crew given the nature of the tournament.
Both teams arrive with maximum points after two rounds, making this encounter a straight shootout for top spot. Algeria currently lead the group on goal difference (+5 vs Iraq’s +3), while a draw would be enough for the Desert Foxes to secure first place. This Algeria vs Iraq prediction today will focus on the tactical and statistical edges that could decide a very tight contest.
BETTING TIPS AND MATCH INSIGHTS
This Algeria vs Iraq match prediction is built on current form, underlying metrics and tournament context rather than reputation alone. Both sides have shown defensive solidity combined with clinical finishing in the opening two games, producing identical 2-0 and 5-1/2-1 scorelines. The absence of any previous senior-level head-to-head meetings adds an extra layer of uncertainty, forcing us to rely purely on recent performances and player availability. Our Algeria vs Iraq betting tips will therefore prioritise low-scoring trends and individual quality in the final third.
Algeria Results
Algeria have been flawless under Vladimir Petković in the Arab Cup so far and extended their unbeaten run to nine matches across all competitions. The Desert Foxes have kept four clean sheets in their last six outings and scored at least twice in five of those games. Their attacking output has been spearheaded by the return of key players from injury.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 06.12.2025 | Arab Cup | Bahrain vs Algeria | 1-5 | W |
| 03.12.2025 | Arab Cup | Algeria vs Sudan | 0-0 | D |
| 18.11.2025 | Friendly | Saudi Arabia vs Algeria | 0-2 | W |
| 13.11.2025 | Friendly | Algeria vs Zimbabwe | 3-1 | W |
| 14.10.2025 | WC Qualifier | Algeria vs Uganda | 2-1 | W |
The 5-1 demolition of Bahrain showcased Algeria’s ability to explode once the opposition is opened up, with Baghdad Bounedjah grabbing a hat-trick. Even in the goalless draw against Sudan they created 2.12 xG while conceding just 0.34 xGA. Defensive injuries have been successfully managed, and the return of Ismaël Bennacer in midfield has restored control.
Iraq Results
Iraq, coached by Jesús Casas, have also collected six points from six and remain unbeaten in their last seven competitive matches. Their counter-attacking style has yielded consistent results, with Aymen Hussein proving lethal from limited chances. Defensive resilience has been the cornerstone of their campaign.
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | W/L |
| 06.12.2025 | Arab Cup | Sudan vs Iraq | 0-2 | W |
| 03.12.2025 | Arab Cup | Iraq vs Bahrain | 2-1 | W |
| 18.11.2025 | WC Qualifier | Iraq vs United Arab Emirates | 2-1 | W |
| 13.11.2025 | WC Qualifier | UAE vs Iraq | 1-1 | D |
| 14.10.2025 | WC Qualifier | Saudi Arabia vs Iraq | 0-0 | D |
Iraq have scored exactly two goals in each of their last three victories and have not conceded more than one goal in any of their last eight matches. Their PPDA remains among the lowest in the tournament (around 7.8), showing aggressive high pressing that disrupts build-up play.
Head-to-Head – Algeria vs Iraq (Last 5 Meetings)
No official senior-level meetings have been recorded between the two nations in the last 20 years. At youth and Olympic level Iraq hold a slight historical edge (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat), but these results have zero relevance to the current squads. The complete absence of direct encounters makes current form and tactical match-ups the only reliable indicators.
Algeria vs Iraq – Predicted Starting Lineups
Below are the most likely starting XIs based on the latest training reports, press-conference hints from coaches Vladimir Petković and Jesús Casas, and the formations used in the first two group games. Both teams are expected to keep the systems that brought them maximum points so far.
Algeria possible starting lineup
Mandi (GK) – Atal, Bedrane, Tougai (DF) – Ait-Nouri, Bennacer, Zerrouki, Belkebla (MF) – Belaili, Bounedjah, Bakrar (FW)
Iraq possible starting lineup
Ahmed Basil (GK) – Rebin Sulaka, Mustafa Saadoun, Zaid Tahseen (DF) – Merchas Doski, Amir Al-Ammari, Ibraheem Bayesh, Ali Al-Hamadi (MF) – Zidane Iqbal, Mohanad Ali – Aymen Hussein (FW)
Key Factors and Match Insights
- Algeria have no fresh injury concerns; Bennacer, Bounedjah and Belaili all fully fit after minor knocks;
- Iraq will miss captain Jalal Hassan (goalkeeper) through suspension; replacement Ahmed Basil has conceded in 6 of his last 7 starts;
- Algeria average 6.8 corners per game in the tournament; Iraq concede 7.2 corners on average;
- Both teams rank in the top-3 for aerial duels won in the Arab Cup;
- Iraq have scored 83% of their goals in the second half in recent matches;
- Temperature at kick-off expected around 23°C with practically zero chance of rain – perfect conditions;
- Algeria’s expected starting XI features a 4-3-3 with high full-backs; Iraq likely to continue with 4-2-3-1 and compact midfield;
- Under 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Iraq’s last 9 competitive away/neutral games.
Free Tips on Algeria vs Iraq
When betting on Algeria vs Iraq in the FIFA Arab Cup, small details often decide where the real value lies. The following five tips are based purely on statistical trends, historical data and situational factors that have not been fully priced into the current market. Use them to sharpen your final decision ahead of this crucial group decider.
- Both teams are in strong recent form, but Algeria’s underlying numbers are superior: Algeria have won 7 of their last 9 matches across all competitions with an average xG differential of +1.44 per game; Iraq sit at +0.81 over the same period. Confidence is high on both sides, yet the Desert Foxes create and allow higher-quality chances.
- This will be the first senior-level meeting ever – ignore irrelevant youth/Olympic H2H: Markets sometimes overreact to any historical data, but the last official encounter between the senior sides was never recorded. Treat this as a completely fresh tactical battle rather than leaning on meaningless past results.
- Iraq’s goalkeeper suspension is a bigger blow than the odds suggest: First-choice Jalal Hassan is suspended after his red card against Bahrain. Backup Ahmed Basil has kept only 1 clean sheet in his last 8 appearances for club and country and faces Algeria’s tournament-best 2.4 xG per match.
- Neutral venue removes traditional home/away bias, but surface familiarity matters: Khalifa International Stadium uses natural grass identical to the pitches both teams played on in the first two group games. However, Algeria’s Europe-based players (Bennacer, Belaili, Bounedjah) train daily on similar high-quality natural surfaces, while several Iraq regulars play on poorer domestic pitches or artificial turf – a subtle adaptation edge.
- Congested December schedule + knockout match in three days favours caution: Both teams have a quarter-final just 72 hours later. Historical data from previous Arab Cup/Arab Nations Cup editions shows that when two group leaders meet in the final round, 8 of the last 10 such games finished with 2 goals or fewer as neither side wants to risk injuries or fatigue.
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Algeria vs Iraq Match Prediction 2025
Despite Iraq’s impressive defensive record, Algeria’s superior individual quality and midfield control should prove decisive on a neutral venue where both teams can play their natural game. The Desert Foxes have created significantly higher xG (4.8 vs Iraq’s 3.1 across two matches) while maintaining similar defensive numbers. Iraq will sit deep and look to hit on the break through Aymen Hussein, but Algeria’s full-back overlap and Bennacer’s progressive passing are likely to unlock the low block eventually.
Our main Algeria vs Iraq odds selection is Algeria to win combined with under 3.5 goals – a scenario that fits perfectly with both teams’ recent patterns and the importance of the match.
Our Prediction: Algeria 2-0 Iraq
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Odds |
| Match Result | Algeria to win | 1.69 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.59 |
| Both Teams Score | No | 1.65 |
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