Current position and probability
Liverpool sit on 18 points after 11 matches. The gap to Arsenal is eight points and the gap to Manchester City is four. Model projections put their title chance near seven percent. Champions rarely emerge from this starting point.
Required pace to win
To finish near 80 points they must collect 62 points from the remaining 27 games. That is 2.30 points per match. Reaching 85 points requires about 2.48 points per match. Hitting 88 to 90 points needs a sustained rhythm of 2.59 to 2.67. That is a long winning run with minimal slips.
Why the task has hardened
Liverpool have lost five of their last six league games and four straight away. They already have five league defeats. Title winners seldom reach seven or more defeats in a season. Away form is the soft spot, which hurts consistency.
What can revive the challenge
They need a winning streak built on control and defensive order. Fewer risky buildups, stronger set piece work, a compact back line and more clean sheets will help. Returns from injury and smart rotation can restore tempo by March and April.
